SEC QB Rankings, Week 14: Arch Manning might just make it after all

Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13.

1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt

If it was up to me, Pavia’s ticket to the Heisman ceremony would already be booked. He has the stats; he has the moments; he has the juice. The life he has singlehandedly injected into an program as comatose as Vanderbilt is one of the most remarkable feats I’ve seen in a couple of decades covering college football. Other than maybe Robert Griffin III at Baylor, I can’t come up with another player who has meant more to his school. And RG3 has a Heisman to show for it.

In reality, it’s going to come down to the wire. Pavia has made a big move in the Heisman race over the past few weeks on the strength of a couple of gonzo stat lines in wins over Auburn and Kentucky, the 2 best games (on paper) of his career. For the month of November, he leads the FBS in total offense and touchdowns, and leads the Power 4 in efficiency. (My go-to statistic these days, Total QBR, doesn’t break down by month, but I’m pretty sure Pavia would be No. 1 in November if it did; at any rate, he ranks 5th nationally for the year.) He’s up to No. 4 in the latest Heisman betting odds, just ahead of Marcel Reed but still well behind frontrunners Fernando Mendoza and Julian Sayin and the surging Jeremiyah Love.

One issue for Pavia’s campaign is that many voters probably have not seen him at his best. Vandy’s wins over Auburn and Kentucky unfolded in the relative obscurity of the SEC Network, while his most high-profile outings at Alabama and Texas resulted in the Commodores’ only losses. (He did have a very good game in a prominent win over LSU in Week 7, but not such an indelible one that it’s going to move the needle more than 6 weeks later, after LSU’s season has collapsed.) As if the stakes in Saturday’s trip to Tennessee weren’t high enough – in-state rivalry, Playoff implications, the first 10-win season in school history on the line – it will also be Pavia’s last chance to make an impression on the skeptics who still think of him as more of a scrappy overachiever than a full-blown star. He can’t control anybody’s vote, but he can leave them with no doubt just how big his impact has been.

Last week: 1⬌

2. Gunner Stockton, Georgia

Like pretty much all Georgia quarterbacks, it’s tempting to drop Stockton into the “game manager” column and take his consistency for granted. But within the context of UGA’s offense his ceiling has been as remarkable as his floor. On the high end, he’s posted 6 games with a QBR rating of at least a 93.0, most in the nation. (No other FBS quarterback has more than 4.) That includes all 3 of UGA’s biggest wins over Tennessee, Ole Miss and Texas, in which Stockton accounted for a combined 13 touchdowns and a couple of season-saving comebacks in shootouts against the Vols and Rebels. On the low end, his worst rating against an FBS opponent, a 71.0 vs. Florida, was still well above the national average. Whatever the Dawgs have needed from him on any given Saturday, he has delivered.

Last week: 2⬌

3. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M

It’s fitting that the make-or-break game in Reed’s Heisman campaign is coming on the road, at Texas. Most young quarterbacks are just trying to survive in hostile territory, but Reed has been at his best: A&M’s 4 road trips this season at Notre Dame, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri are his highest-rated games according to Total QBR, yielding at least 250 total yards and multiple touchdown passes in all 4.

Last week: 3⬌

4. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Look, if Jordan-Hare Stadium was “haunted,” or whatever, Auburn would have a much better record there than 4-14 in SEC play since the pandemic. (That’s not including nonconference losses to Penn State, Cal and New Mexico State.) But it has been an agonizing venue for Alabama, specifically. With the exception of 2011, every odd-year trip to The Plains in the Saban era was a Bama loss (2007, 2013, 2017, 2019); a narrow escape by way of a face-melting comeback (2009, 2021, 2023); or, at best, a 60-minute slugfest still in doubt well into the 4th quarter (2015).

This year, the first trip of the Kalen DeBoer era is a wild card. The Crimson Tide can sew up a trip to the SEC Championship Game with a win, but they have not inspired great confidence on the road: They were 2-4 outside of Tuscaloosa in 2024, and their combined margin of victory in 3 road wins this year over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina (13 points) is less than the margin in their opening-day loss at Florida State alone (14 points). Meanwhile, Auburn is a wounded animal of a team with an interim head coach, an unpredictable quarterback situation, and nothing to lose. The Tigers came into the season thinking the Tide might be as gettable as they’ve been in a while, and for all that’s gone down in the meantime, they might still feel the same way.

As for Simpson, of course as soon as I go out of my way to bring up his historically low interception rate a couple weeks back, he goes on a spree. After throwing a single pick in Alabama’s first 9 games, he’s thrown 3 in the past 2: A potentially season-altering pick-6 in the Tide’s Week 12 loss to Oklahoma, followed by a pair of INTs last week against, uh, Eastern Illinois. Come on, man, help me out here. Factor in a crucial strip sack by the Sooners, and suddenly ball security has gone from a strength to a potential red flag in very short order.

Last week: 4⬌

5. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss

I can’t write about the Lane Kiffin situation in Oxford without it turning into a 2,500-word screed about the integrity of the sport that wrecks my deadline. I don’t know what Kiffin is going to do any more than anyone else, but the very idea of abandoning a team that still has a chance to play for a national championship for a bigger payday at a conference rival is as offensive as the idea of a coach throwing a game to cash in on a bet. Chambliss and the rest of the Rebels deserve better than to be playing in the shadow of their coach’s ego on what should be a triumphant day for the program. Moving on!

Last week: 5⬌

6. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee

Aguilar is one of many players monitoring Diego Pavia’s case about whether he could be back. His name was among the plaintiffs added to an amended complaint filed in federal court in Nashville last week, which seeks to overturn the longstanding NCAA rule that counts JUCO seasons against a player’s eligibility clock. The suit argues only seasons at an NCAA institution should count. Aguilar spent 4 years at the JUCO level in California from 2019-22, and is currently in his 3rd year in D-I, potentially leaving a 4th year of eligibility in 2026 if the suit succeeds. Whether the timeline for deciding the case will allow for that, who knows? He’d be 25 years old on opening day.

Last week: 6⬌

7. Arch Manning, Texas

The kid is gonna be alright. Not to read too much into a confident romp over Arkansas — what self-respecting quarterback hasn’t looked confident against Arkansas? — but as the season has worn on it’s impossible not to notice how much more comfortable, consistent, and accurate Manning has been as he’s settled into the weekly rhythm of the position. You can chalk that up to the schedule, or to the pass protection in front of him, which has stabilized over the past month as the o-line has reassembled at full strength. At the end of the day, though, the truth is that he’s just a normal sophomore: Talented, erratic, frustrating, and slowly but surely figuring it out as he goes.

All of this, of course, is playing out against the backdrop of the inescapable Arch Discourse. After his first SEC game, a 29-21 loss at Florida, people were already talking and writing about him like he was a hopeless bust who’d personally committed some kind of fraud against the American public. The reality on the field was never that bad. But he did seem to be acutely aware he was playing under a cloud. On Saturday, it looked like the cloud was finally gone. It should be: In six games since the Florida loss, Manning is 5-1 as a starter with a 12-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio and a perfectly cromulent 147.1 passer rating. He’s thrown for 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns in 3 of the past 4. He’s could become Texas’ next 3,000-yard passer this week against Texas A&M. His 2 best games, convincing wins over Vanderbilt and Arkansas, have both come in that span. (Not coincidentally, they were also both in Austin, after Texas spent the entire month of October on the road.) He is not a Heisman contender or a lock to go on to a Hall-of-Fame career at the next level. By any other standard, he is on schedule as his first year as a starter draws to a close.

Now, as encouraging as his trajectory has been, nobody is defining the starting quarterback at Texas by his capacity to put the torch to Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The next step is to deliver in the kind of game it feels like the whole world is watching. The blemish on Manning’s résumé since midseason is Texas’ 35-10 loss at Georgia in Week 12, which snuffed out the Longhorns’ Playoff chances and left Arch looking as overmatched as ever vs. a CFP-caliber defense. All eyes will be on him again this weekend against rival Texas A&M, another golden opportunity to spoil the Aggies’ perfect season, put the “BUST” narrative to bed, and reset expectations heading into 2026. The tenor of his offseason is poised to change dramatically based on what happens on Friday night.

Last week: 9⬆

8. John Mateer, Oklahoma

Mateer’s bid for the September Heisman seems like a long time ago, doesn’t it? Now, the closer Oklahoma gets to clinching a Playoff bid, the uglier it gets. The Sooners are 3-0 in November despite being outgained in all 3 games, by an average margin of 108 yards. Saturday’s 17-6 slugfest against Missouri was the ugliest yet, featuring 16 combined punts and registering a zero on the Richter Scale after halftime. Half of Mateer’s passing output against the Tigers came on 1 play, a routine pitch-and-catch that his favorite receiver, Isaiah Sategna III, turned into an 87-yard house call.

Meanwhile, Mateer continues to struggle pushing the ball downfield since returning from a midseason injury to his throwing hand, although not for lack of trying. Per PFF, he was 0-for-6 against Mizzou on attempts of 20+ air yards, making him an alarming 2-for-23 on downfield attempts over the past 6 games. At some point, that has to matter.

Last week: 8⬌

9. Taylen Green, Arkansas

Green’s prolific counting stats are hard to ignore. At this point, though, so are the turnovers: Week after week, he’s committed costly giveaways in winnable games, both as a passer and a runner. He was picked twice in an early loss at Memphis; fumbled 3 times against Tennessee, losing 2; served up 3 interceptions in a 4th-quarter meltdown against Auburn, including a go-ahead pick-6; threw 2 INTs in an eventual 1-point loss at LSU; and committed what amounted to a game-ending gaffe in Saturday’s 52-37 loss at Texas, which was still theoretically within reach before he did… whatever this is:

Thank youuuuuuu 🤝 pic.twitter.com/V9NXBLFJJY

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) November 22, 2025

That went in the books as an interception, although if you watch the replay from another angle it looks like the ball inadvertently slipped out of Green’s hand on the way up. Either way, it was “a total panic play turnover that shouldn’t happen,” in the words of interim coach Bobby Petrino, especially courtesy of a guy in his 46th career start. The Longhorns capitalized a few plays later to extend their lead to 17 points, drive home safely.

That was Green’s last snap before yielding to redshirt freshman KJ Jackson — not to be confused with erstwhile Razorbacks QB KJ Jefferson — who did some exciting stuff in garbage time. Nobody ever looks better than the spry freshman coming off the bench to replace the beleaguered vet in garbage time. Petrino said this week he wouldn’t name a starter for this weekend’s finale against Missouri, leaving the door open to Jackson earning his first career start. I can’t imagine there are many prior cases on record of a senior who ranks 6th nationally in total offense getting benched in his final game.

Last week: 7⬇

10. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Last year, Sellers achieved liftoff against Clemson, looking like the second coming of Cam Newton while leading the Gamecocks to a come-from-behind, 17-14 win in Death Valley. This year, the Gamecocks are limping into the finale with a 1-7 record in SEC play, no hope of bowl eligibility, and rumors over Sellers’ future running rampant. If this is his last game in a Carolina uniform, it would be a heck of a time to remind the home crowd what the hype was all about in the first place.

Last week: 10⬌

11. Beau Pribula, Missouri

Pribula defied the injury gods, returning to the starting lineup in Week 13 less than a month after being carted off with a fractured ankle, and just a few days after being listed as “doubtful” on the weekly injury report. Unfortunately, he could not defy Oklahoma’s defense. The Sooners picked Pribula twice, sacked him 4 times, and held him to a season-low 98.3 passer rating while holding Mizzou without a touchdown. Up next: Arkansas, whose defense promises to be significantly more forgiving.

Last week: n/a

12. Cutter Boley, Kentucky

Mark Stoops announced this week that Boley, a redshirt freshman, is coming back as Kentucky’s starter in 2026. Which … presupposes that Stoops is coming back, too? Good to know. If it comes to pass, that would make Boley the first UK quarterback whom Stoops signed out of high school to open a season atop the depth chart. (It’s true, look it up.) First, he’s looking to get the 5-6 Wildcats to bowl eligibility with a win at rival Louisville.

Last week: 11⬇

13. Ashton Daniels and Deuce Knight, Auburn

Daniels is set to return to the starting lineup against Alabama after sitting out last week’s blowout win over Mercer to preserve a redshirt. But he must and will share snaps with Knight, a 5-star freshman coming off an eye-opening debut. In the first meaningful action of his career, Knight accounted for 401 total yards and 6 touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing), looking every bit the blue-chip specimen against an outmanned FCS defense. His highlight reel included a 75-yard TD run on the first play of the game; a 51-yard TD run at the end of the first quarter; and a 91-yard TD pass in the second half.

In hindsight, it’s easy to wonder why this kid wasn’t playing all year, which … OK, yeah, fair question. Obviously, a big afternoon against Mercer in late November is not evidence that Knight was anywhere close to being ready to handle the weekly grind of the SEC slate in September and October, when Hugh Freeze‘s job was on the line. But then, neither was the guy Freeze actually entrusted with the job, Jackson Arnold, who commanded 7 figures only to languish at or near the bottom of the conference in every major category before getting benched. 

Arguably more than any other factor, the decision to make that investment in a guy coming off an equally dismal season as Oklahoma’s starter in 2024 doomed Freeze’s tenure. If Daniels or Knight could have saved the season, there was never any way they were going to get a chance to find out. Installing Arnold as de facto QB1 made it virtually impossible to give the rest of the depth chart a fair chance to compete, or to pull the plug before it was too late.

Anyway, bygones. With Knight officially on breakout watch in 2026 and Daniels set to return as the steady veteran insurance policy, there is no pressing need for the next head coach to dip into the portal if he can keep both in the fold. Consider the Iron Bowl the first stage in a competition that will begin in earnest next spring.

Last week: n/a | 16⬆

14. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State

Barring a huge surprise between now and Friday, Shapen is going to go wire-to-wire as the Bulldogs’ starter despite serving up 3 pick-6 INTs, suffering at least 1 concussion, and arguably being outplayed by homegrown freshman Kamario Taylor down the stretch. (Or not that arguably, if you ask the locals.) Shapen is tough, you gotta give him that. Unless he spoils Ole Miss’ CFP plans in the Egg Bowl, though, he’s going to be remembered in Starkville – if he’s remembered – mainly as the guy who passed the torch from one locally cultivated star, Will Rogers, to the next.

Last week: 13⬇

15. Michael Van Buren Jr., LSU

If Van Buren has designs on competing for the starting job under the next administration, he’s in for an uphill battle. His first start as a Tiger, a 23-22 squeaker over Arkansas, was underwhelming. His next start, a 13-10 slog vs. Western Kentucky, was a near-disaster. Van Buren struggled to find any kind of rhythm against the Hilltoppers, averaging a meager 4.8 yards per attempt, failing to move the needle at all downfield, and finishing with an appalling 12.3 QBR rating despite facing minimal pressure. 

For a meaningless November game under an interim head coach opposite a 21-point underdog, whatever. As an audition, woof. Van Buren has potential, but a year-end trip to Oklahoma is his last chance to make an impression before the incoming coach decides whether he’s worth including in the ’26 blueprint or not.

Last week: 12⬇

16. DJ Lagway, Florida

In a season defined by meltdowns, Tennessee didn’t even give Lagway a chance to melt down, storming to a 21-0 lead before Florida’s offense had even managed to register positive yardage in the box score. The Gators waved the white flag, running just 47 plays after agreeing to what might as well have been a mutual running clock in the second half. The only surprising part was how many fans in The Swamp still appeared to be emotionally invested enough in this train wreck of a team to be disappointed. 

What can you say, man? Lagway is certainly not alone among hyped quarterbacks whose seasons flamed out early on, but no one else has crashed and burned quite this spectacularly. The first question this winter, even before the arrival of the new head coach, is whether Lagway still wants to be a Gator, regardless of who’s calling the shots. The next question, if he’s still in the fold, is whether the new coach can be convinced Lagway’s enormous potential is worth salvaging from the wreckage. Somewhere in there is the 5-star specimen who looked like the next big thing as a freshman. Just how far down he’ll have to dig to find him and bring him to the surface remains TBD.

Last week: 14⬇