Earlier in the week, we looked at recent SEC running backs who made the biggest one-year gains in terms of their yardage totals.
Derrick Henry led the way, rushing for 1,229 more yards in 2015 than he did in 2014.
Do quarterbacks experience similar gains? If so, what is a reasonable expectation for 2015 first-year starters Drew Barker, Drew Lock, Kyle Shurmur and perhaps Perry Orth and Cooper Bateman, who still must win their respective jobs?
Last year, NOLA.com studied the success rates and growing pains of young quarterbacks. A couple of conclusions emerged: The younger they start, the more they struggle, which probably isn’t what Georgia fans want to hear. But, just about quarterbacks improved, which bodes well for, say, Jacob Eason’s future if not his 2016 freshman season.
As we try to assess what to expect from Barker, Lock and Shurmur, it’s helpful to look at recent results from similar situations.
The SEC has had all kinds of recent quarterback turnover and turmoil, but there are two interesting case studies — call them best-case scenarios — in Dak Prescott and Brandon Allen and perhaps two more realistic ones in Joshua Dobbs and Brandon Harris.
Chasing Prescott and Allen
Allen and Prescott arrived as relatively unheralded, three-star recruits and both only played a little bit as redshirt freshmen.
Here’s a quick look at how they progressed into elite passers.
Prescott: As a first-time starter as a sophomore in 2013, he threw for 1,940 yards and 10 touchdowns.
He made a significant leap as a junior in 2014, throwing for 3,449 yards and 27 touchdowns, and was even better last season, finishing with 3,793 yards and 29 touchdown tosses.
Allen: He completed just 49.6 percent of his passes as a first-time starter in 2013. He finished with 1,552 yards, 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
He, too, showed remarkable strides in his second year, completing 56 percent of his passes for 2,285 yards, 20 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The growth continued as a senior, when he posted career highs in percentage (65.9), yards (3,440) and touchdowns (30).
Closer to Dobbs and Harris
Dobbs and Harris both started as true freshmen, just like Lock and Shurmur last season. Barker started as a redshirt freshman.
Dobbs: He arrived at Tennessee as a four-star prospect and No. 10-ranked pro-style quarterback in the 2013 class. He started four games as a true freshman, throwing for 695 yards with just two touchdowns and six interceptions.
He was better as a sophomore, throwing 1,549 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions.
He took the biggest leap as a junior in 2015, throwing for 2,291 yards with 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions, suggesting an Allen-like leap in 2016 is possible.
Harris: He arrived at LSU as a four-star prospect and No. 3-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the 2014 class. He started just one game as a true freshman in 2014, and finished with 452 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions.
NOLA.com’s story centered around Harris’ expected growth between his freshman and sophomore seasons.
The results were mixed. He started every game and obviously threw for more yards (2,165), but his completion percentage dropped slightly (55.6 to 53.8) and his touchdown-interception ratio decreased. In 2014, that ratio was 3/1. In 2015, it slipped to 2.2/1.
His numbers were similar to Prescott and Allen in their first year as starter. LSU’s hope is that Harris takes the next leap and stays on the Prescott/Allen curve in 2016.
Big numbers still a year away
Lock, Barker and Shurmur have a bit more starting/playing experience than Prescott, Allen and Harris did entering their sophomore season.
Lock threw for 1,332 yards with four touchdowns and eight interceptions. Barker threw for 364 yards last season with one touchdown and two interceptions. Shurmur finished with 503 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions.
Their goal is to match — or exceed — that earlier trio’s production and progression as sophomores.
History suggests they’ll improve in 2016, but the big numbers still are a year away.
Managing Editor
A 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer, Executive Editor Chris Wright oversees editorial operations for Saturday Down South.
