Week 7 win probability for every SEC team

• Alabama (63.4 percent) — Alabama has lost three of its last seven games dating back to last season, with all three losses coming against ranked opponents. Fortunately for the Crimson Tide, Arkansas is not ranked entering this weekend.
• Arkansas (36.6 percent) — For a team playing host to Alabama in the midst of a 14-game SEC losing skid dating back to 2012, a nearly 37 percent win probability is nothing to shrug at.
• Auburn (59.4 percent) — Despite going on the road to face the No. 3 team in the country in Mississippi State, the FPI feels good about Auburn’s chances to remain atop the loaded SEC West in its pursuit of a second straight conference title.
• Florida (53.7 percent) — Somehow, after a horrific week in which quarterback Treon Harris was suspended following sexual assault charges and two more players were involved in a fight requiring a call to the authorities, the Gators maintain a respectable win probability over better than 50 percent against LSU.
• Georgia (69.6 percent) — The Bulldogs’ win probability remains astronomically high despite the recent suspension of star tailback Todd Gurley. Georgia holds win probability just below 70 percent in a huge road test against Missouri, the only SEC East team without a conference loss.
• Kentucky (94 percent) — The Wildcats are on fire right now, and are clearly a heavy favorite in this weekend’s non-conference showdown with the Sun Belt’s Louisiana-Monroe in Lexington. A win would improve UK to 5-1 on the year, topping its win total from the last two years combined.
• LSU (46.3 percent) — You know times are tough in Baton Rouge when LSU can’t even maintain a 50 percent win probability against the SEC’s most dysfunctional program in Florida. Les Miles’ bunch has lost a lot of talent to the NFL in recent years, and its beginning to haunt the Bayou Bengals in 2014.
• Mississippi (42.1 percent) — The Rebels topped Alabama on the same day Texas A&M was embarrassed by Mississippi State, but the Ole Miss is still only given a 42 percent chance of beating A&M in College Station this weekend. It appears Ole Miss still has work to do to justify its No. 3 ranking in this week’s AP Poll.
• Mississippi State (40.1 percent) — The Bulldogs are one of the hottest teams in the country, and although they’ll be at home Saturday against No, 2 Auburn, they clearly still have more to prove in staring down a mere 40 percent chance of victory.
• Missouri (30.4 percent) — It’s unlikely Gary Pinkel and the Tigers pay attention to things like win probability, but a 30 percent chance at victory would be perfect bulletin board material for the defending East champs facing a Georgia team that will be missing its best player in Gurley.
• Tennessee (99.3 percent) — You don’t have to be a math genius to see that Tennessee is a near-lock to top in-state foe Chattanooga in Neyland Stadium on Saturday. The Vols fell just short of scoring conference wins over Georgia and Florida, and could take their frustrations out on the Mocs Saturday.
• Texas A&M (57.9 percent) — The FPI still has confidence in Texas A&M one week after it was humbled by Mississippi State in Starkville. A second straight loss would make winning the West almost impossible for the Aggies, and that motivation may be what led the FPI to assign A&M such a high win probability.
• Vanderbilt (90.7 percent) — Wins have not been easy to come by for Derek Mason’s Vanderbilt squad this season, but it has better than a 90 percent chance of victory Saturday when Charleston Southern of the FCS comes to town. The Commodores ought to cherish this weekend’s game, as it won’t have a win probability this high again in 2014.

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