Week 8 win probability for every SEC team

• Alabama (62.8 percent): Alabama is still trying to keep its season on track after a tough loss to Ole Miss and a narrow victory over Arkansas. The Tide is favored this weekend with Texas A&M coming to town having lost two straight itself, giving Alabama a great chance to score a statement win at home.
• Arkansas (37.6 percent): Arkansas has come close to winning its first SEC game since 2012, but it’s failed to finish the job in gut-wrenching losses to Texas A&M and Alabama. The Razorbacks are underdogs at home with Georgia coming to town, but this weekend’s game could be Arkansas’ chance to prove once and for all how much better the SEC West is than the East this season.
• Florida (75.9 percent): The FPI is remarkably confident in Florida’s chances at home this weekend with Missouri coming to town. The Gators blew a second half lead in a loss to LSU at home last week, but they’ll face an even more inconsistent Tigers squad still recovering from a 34-0 beatdown last weekend.
• Georgia (62.4 percent): Georgia is still missing Todd Gurley, but it is as confident as any team in the SEC following last week’s rout of Missouri in Columbia. The Bulldogs face SEC West cellar-dweller Arkansas this weekend in another tough road test, but they are indeed the better team and should find a way to win this game.
• Kentucky (21.9 percent): Kentucky is off to a hot start at 5-1 through six games, but clearly the FPI feels that record is a product of lackluster competition. LSU has been modest at best this season, yet the Cats are barely given 20 percent odds to win on the road in Death Valley. LSU deserves to be favored, but Kentucky has a huge opportunity to earn some national respect this week.
• LSU (78.1 percent): LSU has kept itself afloat this season despite a ton of roster turnover, and this weekend’s home date with Kentucky is a great opportunity for LSU to score a convincing SEC win. The Cats are 0-1 on the road this season, and their young talent has never faced an atmosphere like Death Valley at night. The Tigers must win this game to continue the progress their making in a rapid rebuilding process.
• Mississippi (84.6 percent): Ole Miss will bring one of the nation’s best defenses to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers, who boast the worst offensive line in the SEC. The Rebels have the highest win probability of any team facing an SEC opponent this weekend, thanks in large part to it’s dominant defense and Tennessee’s young, inconsistent core.
• Missouri (24.1 percent): Missouri was ranked last week yet has worse than 25 percent odds to defeat a faltering Florida team this week. The Tigers’ low win probability is a result of their own sloppy play in last week’s 34-0 loss to Georgia, and not because of anything Florida has done in its 3-2 start to the year.
• South Carolina (99.5 percent): South Carolina plays Furman this weekend after resting during last week’s open date. If anything, the Gamecocks’ win probability could probably be a little higher (like 99.999 percent). If South Carolina can’t win this game with ease, it may as well end its season early.
• Tennessee (15.4 percent): Tennessee has come close to earning SEC victories over Georgia and Florida, but it’s not likely to earn its first conference win of the season with week against Ole Miss. The Vols may be at home, but they’re not developed enough to take down a top 3 Rebels team with a national championship on its mind.
• Texas A&M (37.2 percent): Texas A&M could use a break following back to back losses to Mississippi State and Ole Miss, but it won’t get that break this week with a road test to Alabama. The Aggies are a good team, but they’re beginning to prove they are not on the same level as the West’s elite teams. The Aggies are nearly certain to reach a bowl game, but a loss to Alabama could be the final nail in the coffin for this team’s SEC championship hopes.

Note: Auburn, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt all have open dates this week.

RELATED: SEC Power Rankings; Bowl Projections