S&P+ projections predict winners for every Championship Week game
By Keith Farner
Published:
In the most important week to date of the college football season, Bill Connelly of SB Nation has released his latest analytic formula predictions for Championship Week.
Georgia fans may get themselves into a lather after they see that Connelly has listed the 2.5-point underdogs as the winner of the SEC Championship Game, 26-25, as the Bulldogs have a 53 percent chance of winning.
Connelly reminds readers that computer formulas don’t factor in the caliber of Georgia’s offensive line, or Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson’s right shoulder injury.
“All S&P+ sees is that, over the course of 12 games each, Georgia graded out as the slightly better team,” he wrote. “We’ll see how much context ends up mattering.”
In the ACC, Clemson similarly has a 57 percent chance of winning and Connelly pegs the Tigers with a 27-24 victory over Miami, which is a 9.5-point underdog.
“Can Miami, so discombobulated a week ago, rediscover its A game in time?,” Connelly wrote.
Undefeated Wisconsin, not only is a six-point underdog, but Connelly wrote that Ohio State has a 56 percent chance of winning. Connelly wrote that Ohio State will win, 27-24.
Another close game will be in the Big 12 where Connelly has Oklahoma beating TCU 34-31, with a 59 percent win probability.
“If OU plays like it has for most of the last half of the year, the Sooners can overcome the stupidity and go to the Playoff all the same,” Connelly wrote. “But the prospect of having to beat a Gary Patterson team twice in one month is pretty terrifying, isn’t it?”
Southern Cal will knock off Stanford, Connelly wrote, 31-30, in a Pac 12 game projected to be much closer than the first meeting, which the Trojans won 42-24.
Connelly also sees Central Florida covering the seven-point spread in the American Athletic, and Boise State edge Fresno State 27-26 in the Mountain West.
One of the rare wide margins Connelly’s projections is in the MAC, where he has Toledo beating Akron 37-21.
Full projections:
Georgia 26 (+2.5), Auburn 25 (4 p.m. ET, CBS)
Clemson 27, Miami 24 (+9.5) (8 p.m. ET, ABC)
Ohio State 27, Wisconsin 24 (+6) (8 p.m. ET, Fox)
Oklahoma 34, TCU 31 (+7.5) (12:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
USC 31, Stanford 30 (+3.5) (Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
UCF 40 (-7), Memphis 32 (Noon ET, ABC)
Boise State 27, Fresno State 26 (+9) (7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
FAU 37, North Texas 28 (+11) (Noon ET, ESPN2)
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
