Supremacy Chatter: Every conference has clear Playoff doomsday scenario, except the SEC
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This is going to sound biased.
I realize that seeing this headline on an SEC website is going to make it sound like no other conference could possibly stack up, and that everyone else is the worst.
It’s not, though. Trust me. It’s an observation.
The observation is that after Saturday, the SEC looks like the only conference that doesn’t have a doomsday scenario as it relates to getting into the Playoff.
I say that because now that Alabama and Georgia are past their potential letdown Week 11 matchups, the road looks clearer than ever. Unbeaten Alabama will still have a chance at a Playoff berth even if it somehow falls at home to Auburn, and I think the Playoff ticket is punched before the SEC Championship Game against Georgia as long as that doesn’t happen. Georgia will also still have a Playoff chance if it takes care of Georgia Tech at home.
And honestly, if two-loss Georgia beat undefeated Alabama, the Dawgs would probably still have a shot to make the field.
Disagree with that? OK. Try to find a realistic scenario in which the SEC misses out on the Playoff. “Realistic” doesn’t include Alabama losing to The Citadel. “Realistic” doesn’t even include both Alabama and Georgia losing their regular-season finales.
Realistic is having a contender lose a game to a quality foe and watching Playoff hopes evaporate. That’s the reality in a lot of other conferences, especially with Notre Dame still undefeated.
So let’s break down what it would take for each conference to miss out on the Playoff:
ACC: Basically any Clemson loss
I’ve been saying for awhile now that I’m not sold that a one-loss Clemson team would control its own destiny. Don’t get me wrong. What the Tigers did on Saturday up at Boston College was impressive. Really everything they’ve done since Trevor Lawrence took over as the starting quarterback has been impressive (plus-224 the last 5 games), but it doesn’t hide the reality.
The reality is that there’s a good chance that after this week, Clemson’s only win against a current top-25 team is by four points against emerging Syracuse. I know that Lawrence was hurt, but still. And even if Boston College does stay ranked, that’s still not exactly an elite résumé. There isn’t a win like what Alabama had at LSU that makes me think the Tigers have a loss to give.
So what if Clemson gets that loss against South Carolina? Or against possible ACC Coastal Division winner Pitt? Man, UCF fans would go crazy with the transitive property on that one, since the Knights smashed Pitt earlier this year.
But with Clemson as the ACC’s lone chance to make the Playoff, the margin for error is as slim as its been for the conference in the five years of this system.
Big Ten: Northwestern
I’m not going say that I know who Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany will be rooting for when Northwestern and Michigan/Ohio State will face off in the conference title game, but I know which team will benefit his conference’s bank account more. We’ve known for a few weeks that the winner of the Big Ten West has spoiler capabilities.
The only teams preventing Michigan and Ohio State from facing off as one-loss teams with a Big Ten East title up for grabs are Indiana and Maryland. With all due respect to a pair of programs fighting for bowl eligibility, I wouldn’t hold my breath on those upsets.
So that brings the conversation back to 6-4 Northwestern, which already showed it can go toe-to-toe with Michigan. It was a month ago that the Wolverines had to scratch and claw just to escape Evanston with a win. At a neutral site with nothing to lose, who knows? Surely it’s not impossible to see Northwestern sticking a dagger to the Big Ten’s Playoff chances.
And let’s also remember that Ohio State hasn’t exactly been upset-proof this year. The Buckeyes have played down to their competition on many occasions, and if they were to come out playing timid against a solid Northwestern defense, that could be a recipe for disaster.
Or rather, a doomsday recipe.
Big 12: The dreaded split
Here’s the good news for the Big 12. It has two teams alive for a Playoff berth. That’s more than the ACC and Pac-12 can say.
Here’s the bad news. Those teams, Oklahoma and West Virginia, face each other in the regular-season finale in Morgantown. And depending on how the rest of the season shakes out, they could actually face each other again the following week in the Big 12 Championship.
If they were to split, that’s bad news bears. Both teams already have a loss, and conventional wisdom suggests that a two-loss Big 12 champ would need some craziness to make the field. The no-division model would actually wind up hurting the Big 12 if that happens.
There’s the other scenario that has West Virginia winning in Morgantown in the regular-season finale. That could potentially knock Oklahoma out of the Big 12 Championship and leave it to West Virginia and Texas. Obviously, only the Mountaineers would be alive for a Playoff berth, which would create an interesting doomsday scenario in which Tom Herman could play Big 12 spoiler.
Am I crazy for thinking he would actually love that?
Pac-12: Basically everything that isn’t Washington State running the table
Washington State doesn’t control its own destiny. I realize that the selection committee has never left out a one-loss Power 5 conference champ, but I’d bet on the Cougars being the first.
Why? As I’ve said many times, not facing a Power 5 team in nonconference play hurts the Cougars, as does the fact that the Pac-12 has been extremely disappointing this year.
Washington State entered the weekend without a win over a current top-25 team. Perhaps a win over Washington in the Apple Cup would get the Cougars on the board, but that win would actually knock the Huskies out of fringe top-25 status, so it’s a double-edged sword.
And obviously, any Washington State loss from here on out is a “stick a fork in the Pac-12” game. That’s why it seems likely that the Pac-12 will miss the Playoff for the second straight year.
There’s no guarantee that’ll happen. Lord knows crazier things have happened to shake up the Playoff picture in November. As we approach the final two weeks of the year, it’s inevitable.
Doomsday is coming for someone. Well, not the SEC.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
