When nobody in the top 10 loses, we don’t really get much drama.
The only drama we were in for was whether we’d see the selection committee move A&M past Ohio State, and if you really were curious about Coastal Carolina’s ranking after beating BYU, I suppose that was interesting, too.
But for the rest of us who were more focused on the actually Playoff itself and the teams who have a path to it, it was a relatively drama-free night.
Here were my takeaways from the third Playoff rankings of 2020:
1. I’m not surprised that Ohio State stayed ahead of Texas A&M
I don’t say that to rile up A&M fans. I say that because I think the selection committee already showed its hand.
Yes, A&M has 3 more games played than Ohio State. But even beating a decent Auburn team by double digits on the road wasn’t going to shift how the selection committee ranked the Buckeyes, who won by 40 at Michigan State. That justified keeping Ohio State at No. 4. Had A&M played a game like that on the road while Ohio State sat at home without a game to play, I think we’re having a different conversation.
Now, of course, both teams have had their games canceled this weekend because of outbreaks within the opponents they were set to face. The hypothetical A&M-Ohio State matchup won’t happen because there’s really not any incentive for the Buckeyes to make it happen, though the league already nixed playing against outside competition when Nebraska sought that out earlier in the year.
But it’s actually the Aggies who should be aware of how badly they need to play games down the stretch.
2. A&M is now in rough shape
So yeah, if Ohio State gets 1 more game, that’s all that matters. And obviously, it won’t help if the Buckeyes play in a nail-biter if they’re favored by 28. But compare that to Texas A&M, who is set to face Tennessee on Dec. 19. That’s a Tennessee team who has lost 6 consecutive games by double digits. That’s not going to impress the selection committee no matter how lopsided it is.
What does that mean? A&M is in rough shape. This is now going to take Notre Dame beating Clemson again, and obviously Alabama would need to beat Florida.
In that scenario, your field is:
- Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Texas A&M
Yes, I believe Alabama and Notre Dame would both make the field with a conference championship loss. The only other scenario that would sneak A&M would be if the Irish got blown out by Clemson. Then again, A&M got blown out by Alabama. That’s still not a guarantee. The Irish résumé is looking better and better.
A&M fans need to realize that they aren’t getting the benefit of the doubt.
3. Mizzou! That should excite Alabama fans
To be clear, I think it’s obvious that Alabama will have a bid locked up before the SEC Championship. But on the list of things that would benefit the Crimson Tide, getting some of those past opponents in the Top 25 is up there. That’s exactly what Alabama got with Mizzou cracking the field.
What an accomplishment that is for Eli Drinkwitz, who won 5 of his last 6 games, including a thriller against Arkansas on Saturday. This was a team who going into that Alabama game in the season opener was expected to win 2 games with that brutal schedule. The Tigers are now pulling their weight in the SEC.
As for Alabama, the Crimson Tide now have 3 wins against teams currently ranked in the Top 25, all of which were by at least 3 scores. That’s remarkable. That’s also why the selection committee should be able to have 1 of those spots decided before the SEC Championship is played.
4. The Iowa State No. 7 ranking is even worse than that Georgia ranking
Awful. It blows me away that Iowa State is getting a pass for losing 2 games, 1 of which was to a Group of 5 school. By the way, the Cyclones got blown out by that Group of 5 school. At home. Yet they’re somehow ahead of an unbeaten Cincinnati team, and they’re 5 spots ahead of a 1-loss Indiana team who just won at Wisconsin?
I don’t get that at all. As much outcry as there was about Georgia being ranked No. 8, I think there should be even more outcry with the Cyclones’ ranking. They have wins against Oklahoma and Texas, which are solid, but those still aren’t top-10 teams. Iowa State moving up 2 spots for dominating a 4-loss West Virginia team apparently made a lasting impression.
At least Georgia wasn’t ranked ahead of teams with an actual Playoff path. Iowa State moving ahead of Cincinnati is the type of thing where if it were an SEC team in the same spot — 2 losses with 1 of them coming to a Group of 5 team by 17 points at home — then the college football world would be up in arms. But because it’s historical doormat Iowa State, we’re just supposed to take it?
Nope. We shouldn’t. That’s brutal. That feels like the selection committee trying to engage another Power 5 league and make it feel like it has meaningful football games down the stretch when it clearly doesn’t.
I mean, is he wrong?
The Sun Belt is 3-0 vs the Big 12 but somehow the committee has ranked a two loss Iowa State team six spots higher than an undefeated Coastal Carolina squad. By the way one of Iowa State’s losses was to Louisiana who only has one loss and somehow ranked 12 spots lower.
— Danny Kanell (@dannykanell) December 9, 2020
5. Are we setting ourselves up for a drama-free Selection Sunday?
I kind of think we are. Ohio State will get 1 more game. Let’s say Ohio State wins it, Clemson beats Notre Dame and it’s not a blowout while Alabama rolls past Florida. That scenario equals a drama-free selection Sunday, despite what anyone suggests.
If you were betting on scenarios, isn’t that the most likely one? I think it is. The selection committee hasn’t changed the top 6 yet. That in itself is strange.
But what nobody is really talking about here is that these teams are facing a lot of opponents who don’t really have a whole lot to play for. Even these road games for contenders aren’t being played in front of packed stadiums in front of fans who are pulling for some upset of a top-6 team.
Then again, who are we kidding? It’s 2020.
We all need to brace for more chaos.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
