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It’s one of those SEC West showdowns, appropriately timed for high noon. A pair of 5-3 teams fighting for survival, Texas A&M traveling to Jordan-Hare to take on the Auburn Tigers.
At first glance, it is Auburn with the homefield advantage. Perhaps that’s why they are a four-point favorite in this game. But dig a little deeper and you’ll find that the last six games between the two teams have been won by the visitor.
So which team really has the edge here? That’s difficult to say considering the teams mirror each other in so many ways. Both have struggled in the run game with injuries to each team’s leading rusher. Both quarterbacks have underperformed relative to expectations.
So just how does this game play out? Here are 10 bold predictions.
1. Trend bucked
As mentioned, the visitor has won the six meetings between the two teams since Texas A&M joined the SEC. But Auburn snaps that streak on Saturday as the home team wins for the first time, and the Tigers hand the Aggies (3-0) their first loss at Jordan-Hare.
2. Field goal, not touchdown the difference
Texas A&M has had trouble finishing drives this season. Settling for field goals while Auburn puts the ball in the end zone will be the difference in this game. The Tigers defense has allowed a touchdown on just 26.1 percent of opponents’ red zone appearances, which ranks second in the nation.
3. Underachieving
Take the under (49) in this one. While the Aggies kick field goals, that doesn’t mean Auburn won’t attempt its share of 3-pointers, too, and that will help keep the combined score down and sneak under the number.
4. Collectively, Auburn outrushes Texas A&M
Both teams’ leading rusher is hampered by injuries, and the playing status of both is in question. Texas A&M comes into the game as the SEC’s top rushing defense and fifth in the nation, yielding only 89.25 rushing yards on average. But it’s the stable of serviceable backs that makes the difference for Auburn. In addition to Boobee Whitlow, the Tigers can also turn to Kam Martin and Shaun Shivers to get the job done. No, there doesn’t figure to be a lot of yards gained on the ground by either team, but the Tigers ultimately hold the edge when all is said and done.
5. Texas A&M field goal is the first score
It might sound like I don’t believe the Aggies reach the end zone in this game; they will. But they will end up scoring more field goals than touchdowns, including the game’s opening points. That’s despite the fact that Auburn has scored first in 23 of the last 26 games. They’ve scored first in seven games this season and are 39-13 under head coach Gus Malzahn when doing so. But this time it’ll be the Aggies on the boards first.
6. Auburn has longer laundry list
The Tigers are among the most penalized teams in the SEC. Only three teams in the conference have been flagged for more yards. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Auburn is just 1-2 when penalized 5 times or fewer but 4-1 when flagged 7 times or more. The same could be said for the Aggies, who are 1-2 when penalized 5 times or fewer and 4-1 when whistled for 6 or more infractions. Auburn wins the laundry battle as well as on the scoreboard.
7. Mond wins QB battle
Both quarterbacks should have field days as far as attempts and yardage, especially given the health of each team’s starting running backs. Look for both Kellen Mond and Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham to reach 250 yards passing — that’s bold enough of a prediction — but if he gets protection, Mond could flirt with 300. It would be his third 300-yard game this season.
8. Aggies are TOPs
Texas A&M far and away leads the SEC in time of possession, holding the ball an average of 36:11 per game. Auburn is near the bottom, possessing the ball just 27:11. It seems cut and dried that the Aggies will be snapping most of the plays on Saturday. But with A&M’s health issues at a thin running back position and an inability to protect Mond, Auburn takes advantage and closes the gap significantly in time of possession.
9. Jace Sternberger finds the end zone
The Texas A&M tight end suffered from a case of the dropsies last Saturday, but he’s too good athletically to make that a trend. Look for Sternberger to return to form this week and add to his 6 touchdown catches, a school record for tight ends and a number that leads the conference and is tied for the national lead among tight ends.
10. Sacks
This could be the deciding factor. Texas A&M is last in the SEC, allowing 26 sacks this season. That plays right into the hands of the Tigers, who are second in the SEC to Alabama (26) with 24 sacks, including a season-high 6 in their last game against Ole Miss. Watch for team leader Nick Coe (6.0) to add another, or three, to his totals.
Glenn Sattell is an award-winning freelance writer for Saturday Down South.
