Tennessee basketball: The ultimate preview for the 2021-2022 season

Tennessee fell short of heady expectations last season, when the Vols were a trendy pick to reach the program’s elusive, first Final Four. Instead, the Vols struggled to score and wasted a top 5 KenPom defensive team on their way to an 18-9 record and a first-round NCAA Tournament exit to No. 12 seed Oregon State.

Still, Rick Barnes is the 3rd-winningest coach in the SEC (John Calipari, Mike White) in his tenure at Tennessee, and thanks to another terrific recruiting class, the return of All-SEC big man John Fulkerson and a vastly improved Josiah-Jordan James, expectations are again high on Rocky Top.

There’s no top-10 preseason ranking this time, but the Vols are ranked 18th in the preseason AP poll and are well-liked in analytics models as well, coming in at No. 13 in KenPom’s preseason model and No. 14 in Bart Torvik’s computer models. The Vols also add a second consecutive top-5 recruiting class to the mix, and this one might be even deeper than the 2020 group that was led by Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson, who both departed for the NBA after 1 season.

The 2021 group, led by Kennedy Chandler, the nation’s consensus No. 1 point guard recruit, should help the Vols replace what they lost. They are an especially talented group defensively, with Jahmai Mashack, a 6-5 wing, one of the elite defenders in the 2021 class and another 6-5 wing, Quentin Diboundje, out of Florida powerhouse Montverde Academy, a freakish athlete who will give the Vols the type of flexibility on the wing Barnes covets.

This could be one of Barnes deepest and best basketball teams, and the Vols should play on the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.

Here’s more on the 2021-2022 Volunteers.

Best player: Josiah-Jordan James, Wing

A former McDonald’s All-American, James arrived as a guy with a reputation for getting buckets who had won Gatorade Player of the Year honors out of South Carolina. The buckets haven’t come, at least yet, as he’s struggled to finish inside and has too often settled for his jump shot, which is just average. The result is a scoring average of just 7.7 points per game in his first 2 years on campus.

While James isn’t really a huge threat offensively, he is a versatile scorer, a highly capable passer and, thanks to outstanding length and great basketball instincts, a marvelous defender. The Vols lost the terrific All-SEC defender Yves Pons to the professional ranks last offseason, but James, while not as tall, is perhaps more versatile. He can guard 1 through 4 and, thanks to a deeper frontcourt, could be even more tenacious this year because he won’t be forced to help down low as much. He’s also the consummate effort guy, as the below clip demonstrates.

James also led the Vols in rebounding, offensive rebounding, and steals, giving the team a legitimate All-SEC Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

Biggest strength: Depth

It’s tempting to say defense. The Vols were, after all, a top-5 KenPom defensive unit a season ago and they return James, Fulkerson and Victor Bailey, which is a nice defensive core.

But the story of this Tennessee team is about the depth. Barnes has never fallen in love with a deep rotation at Tennessee. His 2017-2018 SEC championship team played 7 guys consistently and his lone Sweet 16 team in Knoxville used only 6 players on more than 15% of possessions.

That should change this season. James, Bailey, Fulkerson and guard Santiago Vescovi, who will finally be able to play more consistently off the ball, will certainly play. Kennedy Chandler will start at point guard and big things are expected from Auburn transfer Justin Powell, a sharpshooter the team has been missing. Jahmai Mashack is too good defensively to sit for long, and Barnes started Uroš Plavšic once last season, so he should play. Add in 4-star big Jonas Aidoo, a top-50 frontcourt prospect, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, the “other” 5-star in the Vols’ recruiting class, and you are talking 10 guys who will command minutes.

If any coach can manage that situation, it’s a Hall-of-Famer like Barnes. The Vols will be a team that comes at you in waves, which should make them a brutal team to play as the grind of the season wears other teams down.

Biggest weakness: Getting buckets 

It’s no secret what ailed the Volunteers in 2020-21. They simply couldn’t score enough points in key moments. The Vols were very jump-shot reliant and an absolute disaster in the pick-and-roll, where they finished 336th (of 347) nationally a season ago, per Hoops Lens.

Will it be better this year? It should be, thanks to the uber-quick Chandler and Auburn transfer Justin Powell, who can shoot the lights out. Still, a bit more consistency from the likes of James and Bailey would be refreshing. Bailey is especially streaky: in the final 4 games of the year, he went just 4-for-24 from deep, immediately following a 4-game stretch where he had gone 19-for-34. That may just be who he is — many 3-point specialists are like that — but the Vols should have more secondary options than they did last year, when they were in deep trouble if Jaden Springer and Bailey weren’t making shots.

Key to the season: How quickly do the freshmen mesh?

Chandler has the ability to become the Vols’ best player by March, but we stayed safe and went with a healthy version of Josiah-Jordan James instead. Still, Chandler can really stress a defense with his quickness and creative playmaking ability off the bounce.

Last year, John Fulkerson was basically it for the Vols as a frontcourt scorer. That could change quickly this year if 2 frontcourt gems, Aidoo and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, who reclassified to join the Vols immediately, both prove ready to contribute. There are veteran mainstays and as noted above, Barnes traditionally plays only 7 and at most, 8. Will the 5 freshmen starlets be OK with this? Will they accept being role players? Whether they can will tell the tale about the 2021-2022 Tennessee Volunteers.

Scouting the backcourt

Tennessee has to replace their top 2 scorers in Jaden Springer and Keon Johnson, which further demonstrates how important it is that Bailey becomes more consistent. Justin Powell should help matters, as should Chandler, who in addition to creating offense off the bounce allows the Vols to move Santiago Vescovi to guard. Vescovi is a splendid spot-up shooter and with his dribbling responsibilities toned down, he should be the Vols player who benefits most from the presence of Chandler. That’s a big “X-factor” for an offense that was anemic a season ago (71.9 ppg, No. 156 nationally).

Scouting the frontcourt

Fulkerson, who received votes for preseason SEC Player of the Year in 2020-21 (it went to Florida’s Keyontae Johnson), remains an All-SEC caliber player. His leadership skills and basketball IQ are through the roof and he’s a marvelous finisher. What he has this season is help.

Huntley-Hatfield is a pick-and-pop threat who can handle enough to score off the bounce and has the size, at 6-10, to clean things up on the glass. Aidoo is more limited as a scorer, but along with Plavšic, the Vols are deep in the frontcourt, which should make life easier on Fulkerson, who struggled after becoming a focal point for defenses in 2020-21.

Predicting how far they’ll go in March: SEC champions, Sweet 16

Barnes will use his deepest team yet in Knoxville to capture his second SEC championship this March. He’ll parlay that into a No. 2 or 3 seed and the Vols will cruise out of the first weekend before faltering against a team that is a bit less offensively challenged in the Sweet 16. Vols fans were frustrated, with good reason, for the way things ended a season ago. They’ll be a much happier bunch in 2021, even though a dream regular season will again fall short of the program’s first Final Four.

Neil Blackmon

Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.