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Tennessee Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Vols in 2025

Published: Aug 19, 2025 · 8:00 AM EDT

A Playoff berth meant that 2024 was a success for Tennessee. Period.

Going 10-2 with wins against Alabama and Florida en route to the Playoff was a success. To deny that would be foolish on the heels of the best 3-year stretch in 20 years. I didn’t even include the part where Josh Heupel got the ultimate revenge win at Oklahoma, or the part where Dylan Sampson became the SEC Offensive Player of the Year for a Tennessee rushing attack that finished No. 8 in the FBS and No. 2 among Power Conference teams.

In the words of Olaf from “Frozen,” “all good things, all good things.”

(Before you judge that reference, know that I have a 2-year-old daughter who has watched that movie dozens of times.)

Any conversation about Tennessee’s 2024 regular season needs that context. Any conversation about the things that have happened since then, well, they need some additional context. Those events were a blowout loss at Ohio State, a torn ACL to top returning player Jermod McCoy in January, a dramatic post-spring transfer from returning quarterback/former $8 million man Nico Iamaleava, a head-scratching situation that clouded the standing of expected spark plug Boo Carter and an unproven receiver room was searching for healthy bodies during fall camp.

All of that context is true. What does it mean for 2025? That’s in the eye of the beholder. In this instance, the Crystal Ball is the beholder.

For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.

So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:

Let’s continue with Tennessee:

Joey Aguilar, welcome to the big time

The unofficial “player to be named later” in the Iamaleava trade was Aguilar, who got a few months at UCLA before Tennessee came calling. More importantly, he played at Appalachian State in 2024, where he had some mixed results. Aguilar was the Sun Belt leader in passing yards per game (273) and 40-yard completions (12), but he also threw more interceptions (14) than anyone in the sport and he fumbled 4 times for a team that went 5-6.

Mind you, that was against Sun Belt competition. Cutting down turnovers against SEC competition will be a different ballgame for the Vols’ new QB1. Can he do that? That’ll be a challenge after he didn’t get a spring in Knoxville, nor did he get a fall camp with a full assortment of Tennessee’s receivers. Doing that while learning the Heupel offense and the tempo it demands will be among the more challenging tasks that any SEC quarterback has in 2025.

If Aguilar doesn’t look the part, Jake Merklinger could get a shot. He’s the only quarterback in that room who attempted a pass in a Tennessee uniform. Granted, it was 9 passes, none of which happened after mid-September 2024 … and none of them were against Power Conference competition. Tennessee’s quarterback room is a massive unknown.

The only safe bet with Tennessee’s offense? Even post-Sampson with an offensive line that returns 1 starter from last year’s team, Heupel will probably have a rushing attack that hits 199 yards/game, just as his teams have done in all 7 of his seasons as an FBS head coach.

Perhaps that coupled with another elite defense can overshadow the quarterback questions.

It’s a great time to have Tim Banks in Year 5

Have I mentioned yet that Banks went from being the biggest Year 1 question of the Heupel era to being the biggest saving grace going into Year 5? Banks led a pair of top-25 defenses the last 2 years. He did that while Tennessee struggled to find a steady passing attack, and it was tasked with playing in more games that were low-scoring rock fights. At least that’s how they felt from an offensive standpoint.

Based on those aforementioned offensive questions heading into 2025, one can assume that Tennessee will again need a championship-level defense to stay alive in the Playoff hunt. Banks can produce that, especially if McCoy can return sooner rather than later. Without him, though, the Vols are going to be led by a pair of All-SEC candidates in the front 7 with Joshua Josephs and Arion Carter. Those 2 will set the tone for a Tennessee defense that didn’t turn to the transfer portal to plug holes like it did a year earlier with a portal-heavy secondary. This year, Banks will be working with a unit that might lack some experience in a couple of areas, but is still familiar in the system. That’s why the Vols are No. 22 in percentage of returning defensive production.

Either way, Tennessee has earned some blind faith on that side of the ball. Banks is a huge part of that. We’re talking about a unit that watched the offense have 3 consecutive scoreless first halves … which was part of a 2-1 stretch thanks to the defense. The Vols would like to avoid putting the defense in so many tough spots in 2025.

But at the very least, one can assume that unit will be more than ready to keep Tennessee in any ballgame.

Tennessee Over/Under Win Total

Odds (via BetMGM)

Over 8.5 wins: +130
Under 8.5 wins: -155

Game-by-game predictions

Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Vols:

Week 1: vs. Syracuse in Atlanta (W)

Go back to March and tell a college football fan that this game will be a quarterback battle of Aguilar and Steve Angeli. As in, guys who went into spring camp as favorites to start at UCLA and Notre Dame, respectively. This sport is wacky sometimes. This game could be equally wacky. Tennessee shouldn’t be sleeping on a Fran Brown team looking ready to pull off an upset. But a sloppy passing game is decided by Tennessee running the ball well enough and picking off Angeli in the red zone. The Vols escape Atlanta with a 20-17 victory.

Week 2: vs. East Tennessee State (W)

It’s fair to say that excitement levels got a bit too high when Iamaleava carved up lesser competition. But the good news is that Merklinger should get plenty of reps, and the Vols’ QB2 will get to show the masses whether he’s a viable option if Aguilar struggles later in the season.

Week 3: vs. Georgia (L)

Ask yourself this. Will the first Tennessee quarterback to beat Georgia since Josh Dobbs be Aguilar? I can’t bet on that. You could even tell me that Tennessee will jump out to an early lead like it did the past 2 years, and that still won’t impact the inevitable feeling that Georgia will find a way to come back and run away from the Vols. Let’s put the emphasis on “run” because Gunner Stockton could struggle in his first career road start. But Georgia having the 1-2 punch of Nate Frazier and Josh McCray is vital to finish drives on the road, and Heupel suffers his first home loss since 2023.

Week 4: vs. UAB (W)

I’m leaving open the possibility that Heupel uses this as an opportunity to see what he has in Merklinger. He gets an audition for the starting job, which leads to him connecting with Mike Matthews and Miles Kitselman. The Vols have an in-season quarterback battle heading into SEC play.

Week 5: at Mississippi State (W)

It’s about time for the Tennessee ground attack to establish its presence. DeSean Bishop and Peyton Lewis take advantage of a Mississippi State run defense that doesn’t have the answers. Heupel gets a victory against his former assistant to kick off SEC play.

Week 6: Bye

A 4-1 start should be the expectation going into the bye week, so this would be neither disappointing nor overachieving.

Week 7: vs. Arkansas (W)

Revenge game? Revenge game. Not only does Tennessee do a better job of attacking downfield in the passing game, but it also gets a boost from a healthy McCoy. He baits Taylen Green into a pair of interceptions in what turns out to be a disastrous showing by the Arkansas offense. Instead of Tennessee having a setback offensively, it leans heavily on its emerging backfield duo to put Arkansas away in the middle of the third quarter.

Week 8: at Alabama (L)

I realize that Tennessee has gotten over the hump against Alabama. Heupel having multiple wins against the Tide before Year 5 is quite the feat given where both programs were at to start the decade. So why can’t he pick up another one? The road woes. Specifically, the road games against top-15 teams. Heupel is 1-6 lifetime in those spots. The lone win was the Oklahoma win last year, which obviously didn’t age like a top-15 win. More relevant for this contest is that a turnover-prone Tennessee passing game runs into issues against the Alabama defense. Tennessee can’t take advantage of a slow offensive start for Alabama, and the second half is all Tide.

Week 9: at Kentucky (L)

Wait, what? Doesn’t Heupel own Mark Stoops? Isn’t UK riding a 4-win season that completely tanked Stoops’ approval rating? Yeah, and all of that could be out the window for Tennessee coming off a draining Alabama loss in Tuscaloosa. On the road, Heupel suffers a defeat that feels a lot like last year at Arkansas. The only difference is that the Vols aren’t a top-5 team. Kentucky leans on its 2-headed rushing attack, and eventually, Tennessee’s defense wears down. For once, the Vols don’t have the answers against Stoops.

Week 10: vs. Oklahoma (W)

Some home cooking comes at a perfect time. Nothing snaps Heupel back into place like facing his alma mater. While it doesn’t quite have the same juice as it had a year ago, an electric atmosphere is at the root of a major bounce-back win. John Mateer turns the ball over and is overwhelmed by the Tennessee front at Neyland. Much like last year when Tennessee’s defense was lights out against the Sooners, a low-scoring game is never in doubt for Tennessee.

Week 11: Bye

Can Tennessee rally to get to 9 wins?

Week 12: vs. New Mexico State (W)

Diego Pavia ain’t walkin’ through that door.

Week 13: at Florida (L)

I’m old enough to remember when Tennessee could actually go into The Swamp and win a game, but barely. In a building where the Vols haven’t won since 2003, Tennessee’s house of horrors resurfaces. It’s not necessarily the Playoff elimination game that both teams were hoping it would be when the season began, but it does pack the intensity of that type of game. The Gators show up looking as confident as ever, and true freshman Dallas Wilson delivers the first 100-yard game of his career. Florida rolls to its 11th consecutive home win against the Vols.

Week 14: vs. Vanderbilt (W)

Is it possible that a 5-win Vanderbilt team treats this game like its Super Bowl and we see Pavia deliver the ultimate SEC send-off? Sure. But tell me then why last year’s Vandy squad couldn’t muster that type of juice in Nashville when Tennessee had everything on the line. At home, Tennessee fends off a 1-dimensional attack. Instead of this being a moment for Vandy to say it “runs Tennessee,” the Dores fall short of a bowl game while Tennessee closes win No. 8.

2025 projection: 8-4 (4-4), 10th in SEC

A 10th-place SEC finish looks worse than it actually is, but that won’t be the takeaway from 2024.

12-team Playoff berth? No

It’s not the best feeling when Playoff hopes disappear at the hands of Kentucky. That’d be a tough pill to swallow. A 1-3 road record this year would give Heupel a 9-13 record in true road games through 5 years. An 0-3 record vs. rivals wouldn’t get more people on the Heupel hype train, either.

A disappointing ending can set a strange tone for the offseason. Questions could linger. What does the QB situation look like beyond just decorated Faizon Brandon 5-star 2026 verbal pledge? Is Banks still around or did he get a head coaching job? And what’s happening in those road games with Heupel?

Those are all legitimate questions that could be asked, even if Tennessee wins a bowl game to get to 9 wins for the 4th consecutive time for the first time in the 21st century. Are they fair? Sure. The Vols are a program that’s won a national title in the last 30 years with a rich history, so those questions about ceiling will always be in play.

By 2025, there’s a hope that it was a “floor” season under Heupel. Will that be true? We need a bigger Crystal Ball for that.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.