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Tennessee vs. Missisippi State preview: Betting trends, matchup analysis
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Tennessee will put its No. 5 ranking on the line in Starkville on Wednesday night as it faces Mississippi State on the road.
The Vols have won 7 games in a row and look like a contender to reach the Final Four this March. Mississippi State is coming off of a loss in its last game, but the Bulldogs are vying for their 2nd straight NCAA Tournament under Chris Jans.
Let’s dig into this matchup:
Tennessee vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds
Spread: Tennessee -2 (DraftKings)
Total: Over/Under 137 points (DraftKings)
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GET THE APPBetting trends to know for Tennessee
- Tennessee is 6-8 against the spread
- The over is 8-6 in Tennessee games
- Tennessee is 1-0 against the spread in SEC play
- Tennessee is 1-1 against the spread on the road
- Tennessee is 6-4-1 against the spread as the favorite
It’s not a tremendous sample size, but Tennessee has been profitable as the favorite this season at 6-4-1. That includes back-to-back wins against the spread with blowout wins over Ole Miss and Norfolk State.
Tennessee has not been a single-digit favorite very often this season. Only twice have the Vols have been favored by 9 points or less. They earned a push on a 7-point spread against Illinois back in December and they covered a 3-point spread against Wisconsin way back on Nov. 10. It’s notable that the 80-70 win over the Badgers was on the road.
Betting trends to know for Mississippi State
- Mississippi State is 8-6 against the spread
- The under is 8-6 in Mississippi State games
- Mississippi State is 2-4 against the spread at home
- This is the first time Mississippi State has been an underdog this season
Mississippi State has been a solid program under Chris Jans, but the Bulldogs have not really tested themselves yet this year — and still find themselves with an 11-3 record as they prepare to host the Vols. Mississippi State is an underdog against Tennessee for the first time this season, but has already dropped games to Georgia Tech, Southern and South Carolina.
3 notes for the game
If Mississippi State has an edge in this game, it’s on defense
Both of these teams are pretty similar stylistically. They play relatively slow (both outside the top-100 in tempo per KenPom), don’t shoot a lot of 3-pointers and are very solid defensively. Mississippi State is currently 10th in adjusted efficiency defense and figures to have a strong advantage over a Tennessee team who has less-than-stellar numbers offensively. The Vols are 148th nationally in 3-point percentage and 158th in effective field goal percentage.
Mississippi State also recently brought center Tolu Smith back into the lineup after he missed the early part of the year with an injury. Smith has been coming off the bench — neither he nor Jimmy Bell shoot 3-pointers so playing them together for long stretches could be a challenge — but he was one of the SEC’s best rebounders last season and should play a significant role for the Bulldogs moving forward.
Dalton Knecht’s no good, very bad slump
Early in the season, Tennessee’s offense was driven by Dalton Knecht. Back in November, he was an early riser on NBA draft boards and looked like he would be one of the best players in the SEC this season. However, he’s been in a major slump since scoring 21 points in a win over Illinois.
In Knecht’s last 5 games, he’s averaging just 7.6 points per game while shooting 32.4% from the field and 26.7% from 3-point range. Tennessee does have players who can step up offensively if Knecht has an off-night, but he’s certainly expected to be the guy if Tennessee is going to accomplish anything substantial this season. Despite his struggles, Knecht still leads Tennessee in usage rate (26.6%) and has a higher true shooting percentage than every Tennessee starter except for Santiago Vescovi (who is only averaging 6 attempts per game this year). The Vols need Knecht to get going again.
Tennessee hasn’t been on the road in awhile
Tennessee should not overlook this Mississippi State team. Yes, the Vols have won 7 games in a row. But none of those games came on the road — this will be Tennessee’s first away game since Nov. 29! — and only one of them was against a team currently ranked inside KenPom’s top-60.
The Bulldogs are No. 28 in KenPom as of Wednesday afternoon, making them Tennessee’s highest-rated opponent it has faced on the road since losing to North Carolina in Chapel Hill in late November.
1 pick for this game
I lean Mississippi State +2 in this matchup. The Bulldogs are coming off of a loss against an underrated and tough South Carolina team and should be desperate to make a statement at home against a top-5 team. Tennessee is probably a bit overvalued in the market right now and has real concerns coming into this matchup with its offensive efficiency issues as well as its lack of exposure on the road in recent weeks.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
