Tennessee (24-8) meets former Cinderella Saint Peter’s (19-13) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday evening.
The regular-season champs in the SEC had a shot to earn a 1-seed in the field but fell flat on their face in the SEC Tournament, losing their opening game to Mississippi State in the quarters. And that loss came on the heels of a Senior Day loss to Kentucky at home on March 9. Those 2 dampened what was an otherwise outstanding season for Rick Barnes’ group, which posted its best record in conference play since the 2018-19 season.
Awaiting Tennessee in the opening round is Saint Peter’s, winners of the MAAC Tournament to get back to the Big Dance. The Peacocks are 2 years removed from a magical run to the Elite Eight that began with a win over a 2-seed from the SEC.
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Saint Peter’s (9:20 p.m. ET, TNT)
- Spread: Tennessee -22 (via DraftKings)
- Total: 130.5 points (via DraftKings)
The Vols are 16-15-1 against the spread this season while Saint Peter’s is 20-11. Most Tennessee sportsbooks have the Vols as a 21.5-point favorite, which is the largest spread in any of the 2-15 games in the opening round.
SPORTSBOOK
To help with making predictions in this matchup, here are some advanced metrics from KenPom to consider:
Opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency
- Tennessee: 116.9 (28th)
- Saint Peter’s: 98.6 (306th)
Opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency
- Tennessee: 91.1 (3rd)
- Saint Peter’s: 100.9 (77th)
Opponent-adjusted tempo
- Tennessee: 69.3 possessions (79th)
- Saint Peter’s: 64.0 possessions (338th)
With that, here are 3 player props for the game:
Tennessee F Jonas Aidoo over 19.5 points + rebounds (-111 via FanDuel)
Saint Peter’s doesn’t start a player over 6-foot-10, and it doesn’t appear to have anyone on the roster that can match up well with the 6-foot-11, 240-pound Aidoo. Aidoo’s lack of assertiveness in the SEC Tournament was disappointing, but there’s no reason for him not to dominate in UT’s opener. At 42.4%, Saint Peter’s is 1 of the worst 2-point shooting teams in basketball and gives up offensive boards to opponents at a 30% rate. There are going to be rebound opportunities everywhere for Aidoo.
Tennessee G Zakai Zeigler over 1.5 steals (-110 via DraftKings)
Saint Peter’s turns it over on a fifth of its possessions. Zeigler, who already averages 1.8 steals a game, should have plenty of opportunities to pick the pockets of a Peacocks backcourt that averages nearly 6 turnovers a game between guards Latrell Reid, Roy Clarke, and Marcus Randolph. Tennessee’s defense was awful the last time the Vols played. That unit should be more energized this time around.
Tennessee G Dalton Knecht over 2.5 3-pointers (+100 via DraftKings)
After hitting 24 of his 56 treys (42.9%) in the 7 games prior to the SEC Tournament, Knecht couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn in Nashville. He went 2-for-9 from 3 and struggled through a 4-for-17 shooting performance that impacted his defense. Knecht is hard to hold down, and this is more a feel pick than anything. For Tennessee to do anything in the tournament, it’ll need its star to score at a high level.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
