Texas A&M Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Aggies in 2025
Published:
Texas A&M was 1 game away.
If you’re an Aggie fan, you don’t need a reminder of that. You don’t need someone like me who reminds you that your team had everything in front of it in Kyle Field against, of all teams, Texas. You don’t need a reminder that the offense was completely stymied and if Ethan Burke doesn’t blow up that 4th-down run on the goal line, we’re probably having different conversations about Texas A&M the last 8 months.
If you’re not an Aggie fan, you haven’t been forced to change your opinion of the program yet. Mike Elko‘s Year 1 had late-season Playoff relevance, but did it have the same 8-4 finish that the Aggies have become synonymous with during the Playoff era? Yep. It takes more than late-season relevance to truly change opinions. A&M isn’t about to get pats on the back for being frisky.
A&M will only get pats on the back if it gets to the 12-team Playoff. Shoot, maybe it won’t even happen unless the Aggies get to Atlanta for the first time. It certainly won’t be an 8-4 season that changes the national perception, even though another 8-4 season could further establish Elko’s foundation and get the program to a better place than it was in 2-3 years ago.
What awaits? Let’s look into the Crystal Ball.
For those who need a refresher of what the Crystal Ball Series is, here’s a rundown. Every day, we’ll go through the preseason outlook of 1 SEC team (in alphabetical order). I’ll predict how every game will play out with a final record prediction.
So far, here are the Crystal Balls we’ve done:
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Auburn
- Florida
- Georgia
- Kentucky
- LSU
- Mississippi State
- Mizzou
- Oklahoma
- Ole Miss
- South Carolina
- Tennessee
- Texas
Let’s continue with Texas A&M:
Can Marcel Reed take the next step?
It’s a question I find myself asking a lot this offseason. I don’t know the answer to that, but I do know what it would look like. Despite what A&M tweeted out from its official account in attempt to clap back on the skepticism surrounding Reed’s passing chops, there needs to be improvement in that area. In an off-again-on-again QB1 role last year, Reed was 15th out of 16 qualified SEC quarterbacks with a 27.8% adjusted completion percentage on throws 20 yards downfield, and when he was under pressure, he was second-worst in the SEC at 4.4 yards per attempt.
Not great. To be great, those are areas that have to at least be average, and not a total liability.
Reed will have the benefit of having A&M’s top 7 offensive linemen back for a rushing attack that’s loaded with promise, as well as an offseason in which he got the vast majority of those first-team reps in Collin Klein’s offense, which he didn’t get last year with the returning Conner Weigman. Weigman is gone, but ageless UAB transfer Jacob Zeno is in. It’s worth noting that the soon-to-be 25-year-old quarterback was brought in to back up Reed. How much of a leash does Reed have with the defensive-minded Elko? That remains to be seen, especially with how positively Elko has spoken about Zeno this offseason.
But the good news for Reed is that he’s still got a leg up on Zeno with running the Klein offense. Last year, A&M had a solid ground game that could take advantage of a vulnerable defense, but it ran into problems against the better defensive minds on the schedule because there wasn’t enough of a vertical threat. Part of that was on Reed, and part of that was on the pass catchers. Noah Thomas left for Georgia, but KC Concepcion and Mario Craver came in with expectations of changing that.
Whether that happens or not, Reed’s ability to become an All-SEC quarterback — something the Aggies haven’t had at season’s end since Johnny Manziel — will determine the 2025 ceiling.
A Year 2 Mike Elko defense will be ____________.
“Steady.”
And by “steady,” I mean it won’t have a postseason Elko getting to the podium and sharing how baffled he is that his defense doesn’t understand how to play zone coverage. That was fitting of his Year 1 defense. By the end of the season, you couldn’t count on much outside of Taurean York in the middle of the A&M defense. Even the decorated A&M defensive line couldn’t get pressure. That’s perhaps the biggest lingering question heading into 2025 after Elko couldn’t find that winning combination late in the season with all of that NFL talent.
The good news for Elko is that York is back to lead the defense. There should be a better understanding in a Will Lee-led secondary of how to, you know, play zone coverage. A lot of that will depend on a bounce-back year from Georgia transfer Julio Humphrey, as well as a healthy Tyreek Chappell, who suffered a season-ending injury last September. Neither of those are givens, but there’s at least not a lack of experience on the back end of A&M’s defense.
The interesting thing about the A&M defense is that it produced nothing but top-40 scoring units in the 2020s. In a way, it’s been the steadiest force in College Station. Three of those seasons were with Elko. A top-40 unit last year didn’t feel steady, especially in the late-season duds away from home against South Carolina, Auburn and the bowl game against USC. We completely overlooked the fact that the Aggies allowed just 10 offensive points in the Texas loss (while recording a pick-6) because those other games defined a once-promising season.
Elko can turn some heads if he can produce a top-20 unit that is more “steady” than “perplexing” by season’s end.
Texas A&M Over/Under Win Total
Odds (via BetMGM)
- Over 7.5 wins: -175
- Under 7.5 wins: +145
Game-by-game predictions
Here’s how I have the 2025 regular season playing out for the Aggies:
Week 1: vs. UTSA (W)
Don’t sleep on a Jeff Traylor-coached team that ranks No. 7 in percentage of returning offensive production, but do expect UTSA to be overwhelmed by A&M’s rushing attack. The Rueben Owens hype train has left the station.
Week 2: vs. Utah State (W)
Your fun Utah State fact is that Bronco Mendenhall is now leading the program in what’ll be his 4th FBS job of the Playoff era. But he won’t get his first road win at his new gig.
Week 3: at Notre Dame (L)
This is a revenge game in a whole bunch of ways for Elko. Besides just losing this game in last year’s opener, he also lost to the Irish with a devastating finish when Duke hosted College GameDay for the first time. Plus, Elko left Notre Dame to become Jimbo Fisher’s first DC at A&M. You get it. So what’s the area that dooms the Aggies against the defending national runner-up? Stopping Jeremiyah Love. A&M doesn’t have an answer against an experienced Notre Dame offensive line, and it just can’t force enough stops. Reed struggles in some obvious throwing situations and a 28-14 loss stymies some early A&M momentum.
Week 4: Bye
A bye week comes at the right time as SEC play takes off.
Week 5: vs. Auburn (W)
It’s easy to forget that A&M didn’t have Owens or Le’Veon Moss in last year’s 4-overtime thriller at Jordan-Hare. It showed at times. Reed won’t have to put on his cape in the same way this time around. On the road, Auburn can’t match A&M in the trenches. In a game that feels like it’s right out of the Klein blueprint, the Aggies only need to throw the ball 15 times in a ground-heavy performance. A&M starts SEC play in the win column.
Week 6: vs. Mississippi State (W)
A slow start in an early kickoff has the Kyle Field crowd wondering if A&M is about to lay a massive egg. A 10-3 Mississippi State lead gashes the Aggies on the back end, and A&M looks lost offensively in the first half. But as Reed has done many times in his young career, he settles in and does his damage late. A&M’s ground attack dominates the 3rd quarter en route to a 35-24 victory.
Week 7: vs. Florida (W)
The storyline of DJ Lagway returning to Texas will be well-documented, especially with how much A&M pursued the former 5-star quarterback. Lagway gives Florida a much different vibe in this year’s matchup compared to last year when he came in relief, but a reluctancy to use his legs proves costly. A&M senses that and takes advantage of it. On top of that, Reed plays the most complete game of his young career. Concepcion scores his first long touchdown in an A&M uniform, and A&M pulls away late in the top-25 showdown.
Week 8: at Arkansas (L)
Yikes. Just as A&M is back into the top 15 with a 3-0 start to SEC play, an egg is laid against an Arkansas team that’s been left for dead. A change in scenery results in a change of … results. Arkansas sprints out to a fast start, and Taylen Green extends plays all game. Unlike last year when he couldn’t protect the football, Green plays like someone who has taken the next step. That frustrates a gassed A&M defense. Reed does his best to lead A&M back after it falls into a 2-touchdown hole, but the road woes resurface at the worst time for the Aggies.
Week 9: at LSU (L)
In a game that again has massive SEC Championship Game/Playoff stakes, the home team pulls out another monumental victory. LSU showcases perhaps its biggest year-to-year difference by containing a mobile quarterback like Reed. Instead of letting him flip the script like he did in 2024, it’s LSU that shows poise down the stretch. A&M’s passing game inconsistency proves costly, and LSU fends off the Aggies to clear its path to Atlanta.
Week 10: Bye
It’s understood that SEC Championship Game hopes are all but dead, but outside Playoff hopes are alive heading into November.
Week 11: at Mizzou (W)
A rested A&M squad does something it hasn’t done all year — win a road game. The Aggies do that by forcing Mizzou’s 1-dimensional offense into too many 3rd-and-longs. A fast Mizzou start is spoiled by A&M’s improved defense. A trust in the ground game and the intermediate passing game digs A&M out of the early hole against a respected Tigers defense. Reed’s poise overcomes that deficit and a last-ditch Mizzou drive ends with a Lee interception in a 28-24 thriller.
Week 12: vs. South Carolina (W)
Timing is everything for this one. A&M looks like a team that’s relieved to play a home game for the first time in over a month. As a result, the Aggies come out firing. South Carolina is forced to play-catchup against a confident A&M offense. Moss, who suffered a torn ACL in last year’s game, is a man on a mission in his biggest game of the season. Concepcion adds to that with a pair of touchdowns from Reed in what turns out to be a surprising A&M blowout win against LaNorris Sellers and Co.
Week 13: vs. Samford (W)
A&M avoids a 2021 Florida-like performance against Samford. Don’t know what I’m referencing? Go rewatch the 70-52 mess that set defensive football back decades. This game doesn’t do that and it instead rightfully becomes the Texas tuneup.
Week 14: at Texas (L)
A 2-loss Texas team doesn’t want to be a 9-3 team on Selection Sunday. Period. A 3-loss A&M team knows that it’ll need to pull off an upset in Austin to even have a shot at the Playoff. So in another game A&M-Texas game with major buildup, what plays out? Both mobile quarterbacks shine. Reed and Arch Manning surprise both defenses early, and they do it all against respected defenses. But Pete Kwiatkowski makes the right late adjustments against Reed. A&M has a chance for a go-ahead drive late, but Reed can’t pull out a miracle on 4th-and-long. Texas survives and A&M endures an all-too-familiar ending.
2025 projection: 8-4 (5-3), 6th in SEC
A promising start to SEC play leads to a devastating finish … when have I heard this before?
12-team Playoff? No
I understand the pushback to this projection, but ask yourself this. Has A&M earned blind faith? Because I could point to the favorable percentage of returning production number (No. 6 in FBS), or how a team with a promising returning starting quarterback who enters Year 2 in the system is destined to break out of the 8-4 mold.
But here’s the issue. Until we see A&M look like a quality team in true road games, opinions won’t change. It’s a program that’s 3-12 in true road games the last 4 seasons, all of which saw multiple A&M quarterbacks start multiple games. Granted, 2 of those true road wins came in Year 1 of the Elko era. Perhaps that’s turning around. There’s still going to need to be a steadier situation at the game’s most important position, as well as a team that looks like it can show up and silence hostile atmospheres on a consistent basis.
Of A&M’s 5 true road games, 4 of them are against teams that won at least 9 games last year. Three of them are preseason top-10 teams. Forget beating a top-10 team on the road. A&M’s last win vs. an AP Top 25 team in a true road game was all the way back in 2014. It lost the last 13 such games. Eleven years is a long time. The Aggies have the ability to change some minds in 2025, but expectations should be held in check.
A pat on the back will be no small feat.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
