Texas A&M (5-2, 3-1) brings its No. 16 ranking to Starkville on Saturday for a 7 p.m. meeting with Mississippi State (4-3, 1-3) at Davis Wade Stadium.
The Aggies are coming off a bye week after slipping past South Carolina, 26-23 on the road, while the Bulldogs look to bounce back from a 19-3 loss at LSU.
Here’s how this SEC battle will play out.
1. Texas A&M wins outright
The Aggies win their sixth game of the season and become bowl eligible for the 10th consecutive season, the fourth-longest streak in the SEC behind Georgia (21), LSU (17), and Alabama (14). The victory will be their fourth consecutive in SEC play, matching a program high since joining the SEC. Texas A&M won four straight during the 2012 season. The win also evens the series between the two programs at six games apiece and snaps a two-game skid to the Bulldogs in Starkville.
2. Aggies tight end scores twice
Texas A&M TE Jace Sternberger has already caught 6 touchdown passes this season, a program single-season record for tight ends. That number is also tops in the SEC and tied for the lead among FBS schools. He will add 2 more on Saturday.
3. Under 45 1/2 points
The two teams figure to square off in one of those old-fashioned SEC grinders. Combined, they won’t score more than 45 1/2 points. Take the “under” in this one.
4. Aggies bust Dogs’ scoring defense
Mississippi State ranks second in the SEC and fourth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing an average of just 13.6 points per game. Kentucky leads the SEC (12.9), and the Aggies dropped 20 on the Cats. Look for them to bust up the Dogs’ average as well. Texas A&M carries a 34-game streak of scoring at least 14 points, the longest such streak in the SEC. That’s a trend the Aggies will add to on Saturday.
5. Aggies dominate time of possession
That’s not such a bold prediction when you consider that the Aggies lead the SEC with an average of 36:39 time of possession per game. Add to that a defense that ranks second in the nation by yielding just 22.8 percent of third-down conversions, and you have a recipe for success. The Aggies will hold the ball for 38 minutes on Saturday.
6. Bulldogs quarterback situation settled
Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead hinted at playing backup QB Keytaon Thompson on Saturday. Bulldogs fans are certainly clamoring for it. In his only start this season, Thompson matched school and SEC single-game records in touchdowns responsible for (7) in the season opener against Stephen F. Austin. He threw for 5 touchdowns and ran for 2 more. But Nick Fitzgerald is the Bulldogs’ starting quarterback for a reason, and he will cement that status with a good game on Saturday while Thompson struggles to do too much in his limited number of plays.
7. Dogs QB rushes for 100, passes for 150
Expanding on the above, Fitzgerald takes the challenge in stride and has one of his better games of the season. The seasoned quarterback will throw for 150 yards on an Aggies secondary that has allowed some big plays this season, but more impressively he will tack on 100 yards on the ground against the conference’s top defense against the rush. The Aggies are giving up an average of only 81.6 yards per game. It would be Fitzgerald’s most productive game since throwing for 243 yards and rushing for 107 against Louisiana-Lafayette.
8. Hail State sack artist gets two more
Bulldogs defensive end Montez Sweat, a consensus midseason All-American and one of the nation’s leaders in sacks, will add 3 to his total on Saturday against an Aggies offensive line that is allowing a league-high 3.29 sacks per game. Sweat’s 19 sacks since 2017 are most among Power 5 players. He is currently tied for third in the SEC and the nation with 8.5 sacks this season.
9. Bulldogs defensive lineman sets career record for tackles
Double-teams do not faze Mississippi State DL Jeffery Simmons. He leads all SEC DLs with 36 tackles this season, including 9.5 for loss, tied for fourth in the conference. He recorded a career-high 10 tackles last week against LSU, and on Saturday with ample opportunities, Simmons will build on that and break his personal record with a second consecutive double-digit tackles game.
10. Dogs lead at halftime
The Mississippi State defense has been stingy all season, but especially in the first half. The Bulldogs have allowed just 32 first-half points and are second in the nation in fewest first-half points allowed by average (4.57 points per game).
Glenn Sattell is an award-winning freelance writer for Saturday Down South.
