Texas vs. Ohio State: Picks, odds for Week 1 clash

Texas will make the trip up to Columbus, Ohio, on Saturday for one of the most highly anticipated Week 1 games in recent memory.

This is a game that’s loaded with storylines. It’s not Arch Manning’s first start, but it is the first time he’ll be Texas’s starter for a big game with massive stakes. It’s also a revenge spot for the Longhorns, who fell to Ohio State in the CFP semifinals last year. The Buckeyes have plenty of new faces too, including a former blue-chip quarterback and a pair of coordinators have never called plays at the college level before.

Here’s a full breakdown of Texas at Ohio State, complete with the latest college football odds, key info for both squads and a couple of best bets.

Texas vs. Ohio State betting odds

Here are the latest betting odds for this colossal matchup between Texas and Ohio State:

Texas fact sheet

• This game marks the official start of the Arch Manning era at Texas. For all the accolades, Manning enters this game with just 95 career pass attempts — the vast majority of which came against UTSA, Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State last season. 
• Texas’s biggest question mark is probably at wide receiver. The Longhorns lost Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond to the NFL. DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo are next up and both played quite a bit last season. It’s also worth noting that tight end Gunnar Helm, who finished second on the team in receptions last season, is also now in the NFL. 
• Defensively, Texas returns a potential All-American at all 3 levels of its defense: edge rusher Colin Simmons, linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and safety Michael Taaffe. 
• Cornerback could be an issue for Texas. The Longhorns lost Jahdae Barron to the NFL last year. Texas has 2 return corners who played plenty of snaps last season, but the results were mixed. Per PFF, both Jaylon Guilbeau and Malik Muhammad posted mediocre coverage grades. Guilbeau in particular was problematic as he allowed completions about 74% of the time he was targeted, per PFF. Muhammad was better at preventing completions (50%) but his average completion allowed was more damaging (13.7 yards per reception, which was the second-most of any FBS corner with at least 500 coverage snaps last season).
• Steve Sarkisian’s Texas teams have underperformed in spots like this in the past. The Longhorns are 3-6 straight up 2-6-1 against the spread when the line is between -3 and +3 during the Sarkisian era. 

Ohio State fact sheet

• Ohio State has a new quarterback this season with Julian Sayin beating out Lincoln Kienholz for the starting job. Sayin is a former 5-star prospect who initially enrolled at Alabama, but entered the transfer portal following Nick Saban’s retirement.
• Jeremiah Smith returns for his sophomore season and is widely regarded as one of the best players in the country, regardless of position. Smith added some weight this offseason — he’s now listed at 223 pounds after playing his freshman season at 215, per Ohio State’s official roster. 
• Defensively, Ohio State has arguably the best defensive back in the country in Caleb Downs, who is back for what is likely to be his final season of college football. 
• In addition to losing numerous key players to the NFL, both coordinators from last year’s title team have also departed. Chip Kelly went back to the NFL and has been replaced by Brian Hartline (who will be calling plays for the first time this season). Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles was replaced by Matt Patricia after he left for rival Penn State. This will be Patricia’s first run as a college coach since he was a graduate assistant at Syracuse in the early aughts. 
• Ohio State is lacking in returning production, but that’s common for the Buckeyes and other programs who recruit at an elite level in every cycle. Ohio State brought in a modest transfer class this offseason and only a couple are expected to start — right tackle Phillip Daniels and tight end Max Klare. 

2 best bets for Texas vs. Ohio State

I like going under the total of 47.5 here. You’ve got 2 brand-new quarterbacks, Ohio State has a brand-new play caller, Texas has new wide receivers and both of these teams are still expected to have elite offenses this season. I’m not so sure it all comes together in Week 1. This is a relatively low total, but I think there’s still an edge on the under. Across the last 4 seasons, the under covers at a 57.1% rate in Week 1 when the total is 47.5 or lower. It’s maybe too small of a sample size to matter, but I think it speaks to how difficult it can be to model totals in the portal era. Given the hype around Manning and Sayin — and the elite defensive talent on both sides — I’m comfortable taking the under. 

Pick: Under 47.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Although I’m taking the under, I do think there’s a chance for an Ohio State pass catcher to have a big game considering Texas’s questions at cornerback (detailed above). But rather than taking Jeremiah Smith, I’m going to focus on tight end Max Klare. Smith will likely be double-covered for a large portion of this game. That should open up a lot of space for Klare to operate in the middle of the field. Ohio State historically has not heavily featured tight ends, but Klare was a big (and expensive) get in the transfer portal this offseason — I think the Buckeyes will utilize his skillset in the passing game. 

Pick: Max Klare to have 40+ receiving yards (-111 at DraftKings)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.