The 7 SEC things that I know we’ll all by overreacting to by the end of Week 1
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Look into the future and tell me how you’ll react. I’m not necessarily asking you to predict outcomes, nor am I saying that you can will something into existence.
But if you’re reading this, you’re a college football fan who has experienced a Week 1 before. Perhaps your favorite Week 1 memory ever was Appalachian State taking down Michigan in 2007. Maybe you enjoyed when Alabama took a quarterback battle into the 2016 season opener, and it didn’t prevent the Tide from stomping USC in Dallas.
Whatever your ideal Week 1 vision is, you can understand why certain openers pack a bit more of a punch. Overreacting is a rite of passage in a sport with an 8-month offseason.
Let’s look into Week 1 and predict everything that we’ll be overreacting to in the SEC:
1. Arch Manning’s QB1 debut at Ohio State … whether it’s good, bad or ugly
Hey, I’m not breaking news here. Manning getting his debut as the Texas starter couldn’t have lined up any better (I mean as the season-long starter). Starting at Ohio State in what could be a 1-2 matchup will be dissected just a bit. If he struggles, the “he’s only getting attention because of his last name” crowd will puff its chest out and conveniently ignore the fact that Manning is facing the defending champs. If he dominates, the “he’s going to be the best Manning yet” crowd will puff its chest out and conveniently ignore the fact that the youngest Manning will have as many college starts (3) as each of his ancestors had seasons as college starters.
Either way, there won’t be a whole lot of middle ground.
2. Brian Kelly’s pursuit of getting LSU a season-opening win in the 2020s
I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but LSU hasn’t had a season-opening win in the post-Joe Burrow era. Drink every time you hear that baffling stat and you’ll have yourself a Louisiana Saturday Night. If you opt out of that, know that you’re still opting into the full Kelly experience, which already included a “Death Valley Jr.” comment that made the rounds. It’ll likely still include plenty of shots of Kelly’s increasingly red face on the sideline, and if yet another season-opening loss ensues, his postgame press conference will inevitably have some sort of “we’re not the team I thought we were” message.
The result of that Saturday night showdown will let everyone know that LSU is either winning a national title or showing the world that it’ll never accomplish that with Kelly.
3. How DJ Lagway carries himself
Lagway’s eventful offseason of injuries will be closely watched well beyond Week 1, but that season opener against LIU will have plenty of reactions. In the likely event that LIU proves to be no match for Lagway, you can bank on no shortage of Florida fans saying that his health issues were all completely overblown. Never mind the fact that Lagway couldn’t throw all spring, he entered fall camp in a boot and his season opening game was against a mighty FCS foe. Nope. Alternatively, a slow start to Lagway’s 2025 debut would prompt the overreaction about why he might not ever look fully healthy.
Pretty much everything about Lagway’s start in Gainesville has been dramatic. Why stop now?
4. How effective Ty Simpson looks in the Kalen DeBoer-Ryan Grubb offense
You could argue that among the Power Conference matchups in Week 1, nobody would get crushed more with a loss than Kalen DeBoer. Not to 2-10 Florida State. Road game? Who cares? Alabama didn’t lose a game to an unranked team from 2008-20. He’s now got his guy, Grubb, back calling plays in his offense. And while Simpson wasn’t necessarily his recruit, there’s an expectation that the former 5-star has extremely favorable surroundings in Year 2 in the system. Sure, it’s Year 1 as a starter, but Simpson’s got a preseason All-American, Ryan Williams, at wide receiver and a decorated returning offensive line.
If Simpson fails to light up an FSU team that replaced its defensive coordinator after a disastrous season, those Year 2 DeBoer skeptics will be shouting from the mountaintops that he’s in over his head. If it’s a dominant Alabama victory — one that silences Thomas Castellanos — some will start to wonder if a Year 2 Washington offense is taking shape in Tuscaloosa.
5. A new Auburn? Like, one that doesn’t puke on its shoes in the 4th quarter?
Never underestimate a standalone Week 1 game. Go ask 2023 Florida what that’s like. If you’re on the wrong end of it, it’s not fun. That Friday night opener for Auburn at Baylor has the potential to be … not fun. In a coin-flip matchup (that’s according to Vegas), Auburn will try to do something that’s happened just 6 times in the post-Gus Malzahn era. That is, win a road game. That could mean doing something else that’s happened just twice in the Hugh Freeze era. That is, win a 1-score game. Jackson Arnold will return to his home state in what’ll be a national stage on FOX. How he looks in his Auburn debut will be must-see TV. Did Freeze again choose the wrong retread quarterback? Or will his trust in Arnold be the start of Auburn finally getting back to SEC relevance after 4 consecutive losing seasons?
As long as people are willing to stay up to watch to the end on the eve of Saturday of Week 1, there’ll be some major overreacting to the visiting team in Waco.
6. The Tennessee offense
Just, all of it. Who starts at quarterback? Are there any healthy receivers? Who gets the majority of the carries? Does Nico Iamaleava look like he dodged a bullet or like he left an ideal situation? Maybe Syracuse won’t be the best barometer for that entire conversation, but it’d be incredibly impressive if Tennessee went into Atlanta and put up big points against a Fran Brown-coached squad. A woeful showing from the Tennessee offense would have many wondering if it’s the start of a 6- or 7-win season in Knoxville.
The irony is that last year’s Tennessee offense looked like 2019 LSU in the first part of the season, and that turned out to be a complete mirage. Something tells me there’s nothing that the 2025 version of Tennessee’s offense can do that would ramp up the hype train to anywhere near those levels.
7. The SEC vs. each Power Conference narratives
Looking at you, Mr. Danny Kanell. If the SEC loses a single Power Conference game, he and the anti-SEC crowd be sure to point out why it means the conference is a shell of its former self. Here are the Week 1 matchups that’ll determine that discussion:
- Texas at Ohio State
- LSU at Clemson
- Alabama at Florida State
- Auburn at Baylor
- Tennessee vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta)
- South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)
Mind you, none of those 6 SEC teams will be playing at home. A 4-2 mark would quietly be a promising start, but if those 2 losses are courtesy of Texas and LSU, that’s still going to have the anti-SEC crowd screaming about how fraudulent the conference is. After Greg Sankey’s repeated attempts to boast about the SEC scheduling, those overreactions to any SEC team in nonconference play will be magnified.
But in Week 1, we know that’ll be cranked up to the highest notches possible.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
