The SEC’s Week 7 schedule provided drama from dawn to dusk. Alabama and Mizzou started the day by going toe-to-toe in Columbia. During that game, Ole Miss messed around vs. Washington State. Arkansas and Tennessee proceeded to overshadow the Red River Rivalry in the late afternoon window. Then, naturally, we capped the day some late-night shenanigans in “The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.”
It’s hard to imagine this Week 8’s games could top those contests… until you remember that it’s the Third Saturday in October. But we have more than the Vols and Crimson Tide duking it out this year. In fact, there has literally never been more SEC-vs.-SEC football on any day before in the history of the world.
If we had to guess, it’s probably not your birthday this weekend. Don’t let that stop you from celebrating like it is. That schedule is worthy of such.
Games are listed in order of approximate start time. Plays mentioned are based on win probability added, via ESPN analytics.
No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 14 Missouri (27-24 Alabama)
Play: 5:40 Q4, 4th-and-8, Missouri 38-yard line. Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 29 yards to Missouri 9-yard line. First down (+16.1%).
The Crimson Tide and Tigers were aggressive in this game. They went for it on 4th down a combined 6 times. Alabama converted on all 3 of its tries, including this one, which set up its 4th-and-goal conversion (+15.0%) just a few minutes later. Knowing this, it’s wild that the game still went under (bad beat for those of you holding 51.5 points there). Both teams are traveling to the Heart of Dixie in Week 8, with Alabama returning to Tuscaloosa for Tennessee and Mizzou heading to Auburn on its first road trip of the season.
Washington State vs. No. 4 Ole Miss (24-21 Ole Miss)
Play: 0:32 Q3, 3rd-and-10, Washington State 17-yard line. Trinidad Chambliss runs for 17 yards, touchdown. 17-14 Ole Miss (+14.4%).
We very nearly got the “major, MAJOR surprise” we talked about between the Cougars and Rebels when discussing their game last week. We’re going to choose to blame the poor performance on Lane Kiffin‘s team looking ahead to a College GameDay showdown at Georgia. If there’s any positive development about that game for Ole Miss, it’s that kickoff will be in the afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET) and not at night.
For those curious, the Rebels’ final touchdown added 13.2% to their win probability. Almost good enough for the top nod, but not quite.
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (23-6 Texas)
Play: 7:49 Q3, 3rd-and-8, Oklahoma 12-yard line. Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 12 yards, touchdown. 10-6 Texas (+13.0%).
Texas may have benefited from John Mateer’s return to action more than Oklahoma did. The Longhorns’ defense forced the Washington State transfer to throw 3 interceptions on Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, Arch Manning avoided turnovers altogether and effectively orchestrated a major victory. Steve Sarkisian has to navigate 2 road games — at Kentucky, at Mississippi State — before hosting Vanderbilt on Nov. 1, but his College Football Playoff hopes are alive… for now.
Arkansas vs. No. 12 Tennessee (34-31 Tennessee)
Play: 9:12 Q3, 2nd-and-1, Tennessee 29-yard line. Braylen Russell runs for 15 yards, FUMBLED. Recovered by Arion Carter at Tennessee 14-yard line (+11.9%).
The Razorbacks played a strong first half in Knoxville off a bye, taking advantage of a Volunteer squad that may have been peeking toward this weekend’s matchup in Tuscaloosa for 30 minutes. Arkansas was done in by turnovers (again) on Saturday, where it committed 3 of them. The Razorbacks now have 6 giveaways — without a single takeaway — in 3 games against Power 4 teams this year. Their upcoming contest vs. Texas A&M doesn’t seem destined to improve that ratio.
Florida vs. No. 5 Texas A&M (34-17 Texas A&M)
Play: 11:08 Q1, 1st-and-10, Texas A&M 25-yard line. Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 67 yards to Florida 8-yard line (+10.1%).
The Aggies answered the Gators’ 8-play, 75-yard opening drive touchdown in just 2 plays. They added touchdowns on each of their next 2 possessions as well to take a 21-14 lead early in the second quarter. Mike Elko‘s team is now the highest ranked SEC school (No. 4) in the nation. Texas A&M matches up with Arkansas, whom it has beaten 12 out of 13 times since 2012, in Week 8.
No. 10 Georgia vs. Auburn (20-10 Georgia)
Play: 7:39 Q3, 2nd-and-10, Auburn 32-yard line. Gunner Stockton pass complete to Noah Thomas for 30 yards. First down (+14.6%).
Prior to Stockton’s pass to Thomas, the Bulldogs hadn’t had a win probability greater than 50% in this game since the middle of the first quarter. Afterwards, they never held less than a 50% win probability. On a separate note, 2 of the Tigers’ losses have been marred by what we’ll classify as “tough calls.” Biggest question for the Ole Miss-Georgia game: will there be someone designated as the “Kirby Smart Hand Watcher” at Sanford Stadium? People are asking.
South Carolina vs. No. 11 LSU (20-10 LSU)
Play: 6:38 Q3, 1st-and-20, South Carolina 43-yard line. Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 43 yards, touchdown. 17-10 LSU (+18.5%).
Brian Kelly broke down this play’s tape following the Tigers’ win. The important development for LSU in this one, though, was its teething rushing attack, which posted 6.0 yards per carry in the Tigers’ first outing off their bye. If LSU’s ground game can supplement Garrett Nussmeier and the defense at all, the Tigers will be even tougher to beat down the stretch. We’ll see if this newfound rushing offense can travel when they face Vanderbilt in Nashville on Saturday (12 p.m. ET, ABC).
