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If I’m an Alabama fan, here’s what I’m uneasy about heading into the home stretch
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I promise I’m not one of those guys.
I’m not going to sit here and claim that the Alabama dynasty is dead or that Nick Saban should ponder a move back to the NFL. I like to live in reality, and not in this world of throwing stones at what’s been the most dominant force in college football in the 21st century.
Having said that, I also don’t like to pretend that everything is hugs and rainbows. Patting Alabama on the back and assuming that it’s in perfectly good shape to win it all again wouldn’t be fair. Saban isn’t doing that right now.
What he and Kirby Smart are doing right now is fine-tuning. They’re finding ways to make sure that they are that perfect team in a month or two. But there are also certain things outside of their control that they can’t fine-tune. Needless to say, Saban doesn’t spend any time worrying about that.
If I’m an Alabama fan, though, there are a few things that wouldn’t sit right with me heading into the second week of November.
The backloaded schedule
Again, this is something out of Alabama’s control. Nobody thought this would be a concern back in August with that season opener against No. 3 Florida State. But as it turns out, the Seminoles are so bad that beating them doesn’t even count as a quality win. That’s ultimately why Alabama isn’t No. 1 right now.
Still, Alabama had an extremely favorable start to SEC play. Does anyone realize that Alabama’s SEC opponents are a combined 9-23 in conference play? LSU is Alabama’s only Power 5 foe that boasts a winning conference record:
- FSU: 3-4
- Vanderbilt: 0-5
- Ole Miss: 2-4
- Texas A&M: 3-3
- Arkansas: 1-4
- Tennessee: 0-5
- LSU: 3-2
That alone is enough of a reason to not have the Tide at No. 1.
But the concern isn’t about today, tomorrow or the next day. This is about what happens to teams that have backloaded schedules. Look at what happened to Michigan last year. The Wolverines were rolling through the first nine weeks until they actually had to travel on the road against quality opponents. Is Saban a better coach than Jim Harbaugh? Yes, but this is something worth watching.
You can bet that Saban would’ve much rather had Clemson’s schedule, which had three top-25 opponents in September. It’s not easy for any team to have its toughest opponents in the final month of the season.
Now, Alabama has to travel to Mississippi State (3-2 vs. SEC), to Auburn (5-1 vs. SEC) and it could have to beat No. 1 Georgia (6-0 vs. SEC) in Atlanta just to get into the College Football Playoff. Any one of those matchups could end up being Alabama’s toughest of the year. That’s not ideal.
13 Seconds
That’s how long Alabama trailed in SEC play. That was back in the first quarter against Texas A&M. What happened after the Aggies took a 3-0 lead? Damien Harris took it 75 yards to the house on the next play from scrimmage.
RT ChatSports: There goes Damien Harris (DHx34)! 75 yards for the score to give Alabama the lead! #RollTide #BAMAv… pic.twitter.com/Baawt1UNIj
— Seahawks Fan (@centurylinkfiel) October 7, 2017
Side note: That dude can jet.
Harris’ run gave Alabama a lead, and it also prevented us from seeing how the Tide would respond to a real deficit. We still haven’t seen the Tide lose the lead in a game and have to really battle back. We saw how that impacted the Tide last year in winning time against Clemson.
There’s something to be said for having to play 60 minutes against a quality opponent, too. Sure, Alabama only won by a touchdown at Texas A&M, but it’ll be much tougher to rally back against any of the teams left on the schedule (not you, Mercer).
That leads me to my next point.
The intermediate passing game still isn’t there
Sooner or later, Alabama is going to need to put together a 2-minute drill in winning time. I’m a believer in Jalen Hurts, but I’m not sold on what I’ve seen from the intermediate passing game. It’s still just Calvin Ridley deep balls and inconsistent freshmen.
It says a lot that outside of Ridley, Alabama doesn’t have a single player averaging 1.5 catches per game. We’re heading into Week 11! The reality is the Tide haven’t been forced to rely on those 10-15-yard passes yet. That’s perhaps the only downside of being so dominant.
That time is coming, and without any real experience doing that with this 2017 group — the one that doesn’t have Lane Kiffin anymore — I question how easy that’ll be to pick up.
Bo Scarbrough doesn’t look right
OK, so Scarbrough was a bit banged up earlier in the year. But coming off his fourth SEC game in which he failed to rush for 4 yards per carry, I’m a bit worried about the freakishly athletic tailback. The fact that he has yet to exceed 15 carries or 79 rushing yards in a game worries me.
Is part of that on Harris’ emergence? Of course. Harris, for my money, has been the SEC’s best running back in 2017. He might’ve been the forgotten man in the Bama backfield coming into the season, but he certainly isn’t now.
The concern is that Scarbrough still hasn’t been that reliable force yet. Alabama needs versatility in the run game as the defenses get better down the stretch. We saw how valuable Scarbrough was when we went down in the national championship last year.
Can Alabama really win a title with him as merely a short-yardage back? If he can’t hit his stride down the stretch, it’s fair to wonder if the Tide can truly wear down defenses with their ground game like they’ve done in years past.
Alabama faced one real deep-ball passer
The Tide did a tremendous job shutting down Shea Patterson. That’s not an easy thing to do (but Cal did it, too).
Outside of that 66-3 beatdown against Ole Miss, though, Alabama’s list of opposing Power 5 quarterbacks isn’t exactly loaded with guys who can stretch the field:
- Deondre Francois, FSU (injured in fourth quarter)
- Kyle Shurmur, Vanderbilt
- Shea Patterson, Ole Miss
- Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
- Cole Kelley, Arkansas
- Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee
- Danny Etling, LSU
With the exception of Patterson — who played in a 1-dimensional offense — none of those guys can really air it out. Etling could’ve made Saturday’s game much more interesting if he could’ve actually connected on those deep-ball opportunities. And believe me, they were there.
The question now becomes what Alabama does against a team like Auburn. Unlike Ole Miss, the Tigers actually have balance. They love those play-action deep throws, and based on how he ran them last week at Texas A&M, Jarrett Stidham is more than capable of looking like the best deep-ball passer Alabama has seen so far.
How will Alabama respond to that kind of a challenge? That’s not exactly a spot any team wants to face for the first time in its last game of the regular season.
So … does that mean Alabama isn’t built to win it all?
Don’t put words in my mouth.
What this was meant to show was that Alabama’s margin for error is not as great as some believe. There are other concerns, especially on the injury front. The linebacker depth took a hit with the losses of Shaun Dion Hamilton and Mack Wilson. Minkah Fitzpatrick — arguably the most indispensable player on the roster — is still working through a hamstring injury.
Alabama has depth and talent for days, but that doesn’t cover up many of the aforementioned concerns. Saban knows that this team is not quite at the level last year’s group was at by now. He’s not feeding his team rat poison, nor does he believe his team can play like it has been and assume it’ll run the table.
But now is the time to fine-tune. And contrary to what some might think, Alabama has plenty of that to do in the next month.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
