Underdog Picks of the Week: Our top plays for CFP Round 1 and NFL Week 16
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The College Football Playoff is finally here!
Round 1 action starts on Friday night when Alabama and Oklahoma do battle.
Meanwhile, the NFL has a full Week 16 slate starting on Saturday. It’s a great time to be a football fan, and there’s plenty of money to be made for DFS players.
For a busy weekend of college football, we turn to our DFS experts — Andrew Olson and Adam Spencer — to see who they like for this weekend’s college and pro football action over at Underdog.
If you’re looking to get in on the DFS fun this Playoff season, click here to get started with Underdog. Use Underdog promo code SDS when you sign up and you’ll get $75 in bonus entries when you play your first contest of $5 or more:
Round 1 Playoff Picks
Here’s who the guys like for this weekend’s 4 Round 1 Playoff games:
Andrew Olson
Ty Simpson, Alabama QB: Lower than 1.5 pass TDs
There are stingy defenses, and then there’s Oklahoma. In 12 games, the Sooners have allowed just 9 passing touchdowns. In 7 home games, the number of passing TDs allowed was just 3. This season, only one team threw multiple TDs against OU, and it wasn’t Alabama (it was Tennessee).
Carson Beck, Miami QB: Higher than 0.5 interceptions
Nothing personal, Carson, but interception No. 11 feels awfully likely. The Texas A&M defense snagged 16 picks over 12 games. Beck threw 10 INTs in 12 contests, an average of 0.83 per outing. A&M’s 16 picks would rank between SMU and Pitt in the ACC. Beck threw interceptions against both teams this year.
Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss RB: Higher than 0.5 rush+receiving TDs
Yes, the number is adjusted here and that’s because it looks incredibly likely on paper. This season, Lacy had 20 rushing touchdowns in 12 games. Two of those scores came against Tulane, when he had a relatively light workload of 18 carries. Only one team (Washington State) has kept Lacy from scoring a rushing TD in 2025.
Adam Spencer
Josh Cuevas, Alabama TE: Higher than 18.5 receiving yards
Cuevas had 80 yards the first time these teams played. He’s coming off an injury, so I don’t expect quite that many yards on Friday night, but he should be good for at least 19.
Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami RB: Higher than 40.5 rush yards
Fletcher is healthy again and the Hurricanes need him. Establishing the run in a hostile environment in College Station is important. And if Beck throws an interception like Andrew is predicting above, Fletcher will need to make up the slack.
Jordon Davison, Oregon RB: Higher than 47.5 rush yards
I expect Oregon to come out on fire in this matchup, which should lead to plenty of rushing yards in the second half. JMU’s defense has been good, but it has feasted on lesser opponents. Oregon runs all over the Dukes on Saturday night.
Week 16 NFL Picks
And here’s who the guys are going with for NFL Sunday action:
Andrew Olson
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons RB: Higher than 86.5 rush yards
Robinson has cleared 87 rushing yards in 3 of his last 5 outings and one of the other times he went for 86 yards. This week’s matchup is favorable, as Arizona has its issues in stopping teams on the ground.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers WR: Lower than 44.5 receiving yards
McConkey had a 107-yard game in Week 10. Since then? He’s totaled just 84 receiving yards in his last 4 contests. Unfortunately for all Los Angeles pass catchers, the Chargers are struggling to protect quarterback Justin Herbert.
Adam Spencer
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles RB: Higher than 75.5 rush yards
Washington is injured and has nothing to play for. The Eagles have everything to play for. I’m keeping this one simple and picking Barkley to at least put up 76 yards on the ground on Saturday afternoon.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears QB: Higher than 212.5 pass yards
The Packers are now without star pass rusher Micah Parsons. That’s devastating for Green Bay. If Caleb Williams can’t throw for 213+ yards at home without Parsons chasing him, questions need to be asked.
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Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
