Upsets, upsets, upsets.
No, you don’t get credit for an upset for picking a No. 9 seed beating a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. And I don’t take much stock in No. 10 seeds beating the No. 7 seeds.
I’m more interested in the meaningful shakeups. Watching a top-6 seed bow out in the first round is an upset, and any time a No. 1 seed loses is a worthy upset.
So here are 10 significant upsets that I picked in my bracket:
Round of 64 upsets
No. 11 Loyola (Chicago) beats No. 6 Miami
I’m a Chicago native, so I have to go with Loyola as a possible Cinderella, right? This is actually the first time in my life that the Ramblers are going dancing (their last NCAA Tournament appearance was 1985). Loyola is more than just a good story, though. They won 17 of 18 coming into the tournament, and they did that because they put the clamps on teams.
I expect Miami to struggle with Loyola’s fifth-ranked scoring defense, and especially without sophomore guard Bruce Brown, who will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury. Ramblers. Rolling.
No. 12 South Dakota State beats No. 5 Ohio State
Last year, there were 9 upsets in which the winning team was at least 5 seeds lower than the team it beat. Four of those upsets came in the first round.
So back when I was covering prep sports in Nebraska, I covered three games that this 6-9 kid from Kimball, Nebraska played in. He was incredible. This kid knocked down shots in Larry Bird-like fashion, yet somehow, he couldn’t get an offer from the big in-state programs.
That kid was Mike Daum.
If you don’t know who Daum is, you might’ve missed the 25 points per game he averaged for SDSU last year and the 24 that he averaged this year. The dude had Gonzaga on the ropes for a while last year. I think Daum leads the Jackrabbits (underrated mascot) past an Ohio State team that overachieved all year.
And who would be waiting for Daum and the Jackrabbits again? Gonzaga.
No. 13 Charleston beats No. 4 Auburn
Earmuffs, Auburn fans.
I’m going to double down and say that the Tigers ran out of gas. The Anfernee McLemore injury was devastating, and without his rim protection, I’m not confident that Auburn can shut down anyone decent anymore. Charleston, contrary to what the world probably knows about them, is definitely decent.
The Cougars won 14 of their past 15 games, and playing in their first NCAA Tournament this century, they should be loose and firing on all cylinders offensively. As long as they can prevent Bryce Brown from going off — Auburn is 3-6 when he doesn’t score 16 or more — I won’t be surprised if Charleston earns one the biggest first-round upsets.
No. 12 New Mexico State beats No. 5 Clemson
In 2016, 8 teams seeded No. 11 through No. 15 pulled off upsets in the first round.
Yeah, it’s the easy 12-5 upset. It’s even easier pick when it’s a No. 5 seed who isn’t a traditional power. But I’m not just picking the Aggies to beat Clemson for that reason.
There are a lot of things to like about NMSU. The Aggies are extremely tough defensively (10th in scoring defense), they dominate the glass (4th in rebounding) and they have a senior guard in Zach Lofton who’s — wait for it — 25 years old and is playing at his fifth school!
I’m not convinced that Clemson is playing its best basketball having lost 5 of 8, all of which were by single digits. I think this winds up being back-and-forth, down-to-the-wire game and I favor the upset-hungry Aggies in that situation.
No. 13 Marshall beats No. 4 Wichita State
I find myself worried about the offensive-minded, higher-seeded teams who don’t defend particularly well. That’s Wichita State.
Marshall might be the perfect team to catch some fire and roll past the Shockers if they’re tight as the heavy favorites. The Herd are 12th in the country in scoring and they have three players averaging at least 15 points per game. That’s going to be tough to slow down. Leading scorer Jon Elmore has the look of a March hero.
THEY’VE WAITED 31 YEARS TO DANCE AGAIN.
Congrats to @ConferenceUSA champion @HerdMBB. pic.twitter.com/15MloFwijL
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) March 11, 2018
Don’t be surprised if he and the Herd, um, shock Wichita State.
Round of 32 upsets
No. 6 Florida vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
So this might not be a big upset considering I thought Florida could have pushed for a No. 3 seed had it won the SEC Tournament. That didn’t happen after that dud against Arkansas. But last year, Florida laid an egg in its first SEC Tournament game and then made a surprise run to the Elite Eight. With good, experienced guards, they should be able to regroup after a streaky finish to the end of the season.
I’m less confident that Texas Tech can regroup having lost 5 of 7 to end the season. That’s a quick turnaround for the banged-up Keenan Evans, whose toe injury made it a roller coaster finish for the Red Raiders. If they don’t have their leading scorer at 100 percent, they might not even be able to take down Stephen F. Austin.
Give me the Gators to get back into a rhythm and advance to the second weekend again.
Sweet 16 upsets
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 Xavier
Gonzaga finally got over the hump last year and went all the way to the national championship game. I don’t think the Zags are getting back there this year, but I do think the highlight of their tournament will be knocking off No. 1 Xavier.
This is a Gonzaga team that won 14 consecutive games entering the tournament and appears to be clicking at the right time. They’re balanced on offense, yet they light up the scoreboard (9th in scoring). They get up and down yet they actually play defense (13th in rebounding, 48th in scoring defense). And while it was a down year for the West Coast Conference, this is still a Gonzaga team that rolled quality foes like Ohio State and Creighton before they began their winning streak.
I’m not sold on Xavier as a No. 1 seed because it doesn’t defend as well as elite teams usually do. Shots aren’t always going to fall in these neutral-site games. As they say in football, defense travels.
In a rematch of last year’s Elite Eight matchup, I think Gonzaga again gets the better of Xavier and moves on.
No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 2 UNC
So if this happens, how many times do you think Chris Webber’s uncalled travel/technical timeout will be brought up beforehand? I’m going to say a lot.
But I think this winds up being a different ending for the red-hot Wolverines. Why? The Wolverines aren’t your typical John Beilein team. They dominate with defense. We saw that team figure it out defensively the last month of the season. They didn’t need to catch fire to beat really good teams like Michigan State and Purdue somewhat convincingly.
I think Michigan’s defense frustrates UNC just like Virginia did (the Tar Heels averaged 56 points against the nation’s top defensive team). Once Michigan shakes off some opening weekend rust after the 2-week layoff, I think that it really winds up helping the Wolverines stay fresh for a deep run.
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Virginia
And here’s the big one.
Yes, I’m pulling the trigger on the Cats to knock off what might be the best team in the tournament. Yes, I realize that Virginia’s defense could put Kentucky in a pretzel for 40 minutes. Yes, I realize that a bunch of 5-star freshmen who played as individuals not too long ago aren’t the perfect matchup for the Cavaliers.
So what’s the difference? Rather, who’s the difference? Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
He’s the straw that’s been stirring the drink for the Cats the last month or so. With him running the offense, Kentucky is a completely different group. The spacing just looks better and guys are able to stick with their strengths instead of pressing. I think Gilgeous-Alexander is the all-important glue that holds Kentucky together in that brutal matchup, and the Cats move on to their second straight Elite Eight.
Elite Eight upset
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 1 Kansas
Would this really be an upset? Probably not. I mean, Kansas losing earlier than it should is pretty much par for the course.
Then again, the same could be said for Duke. But the Blue Devils have their more reliable post presence since they cut down the nets with Jahlil Okafor in 2015.
In a battle of two teams who get accused of getting all the calls, I think Duke has the more unstoppable force in Marvin Bagley. I have no idea how Kansas defends him if he gets the touches that he should. As long as his knee holds up, the true freshman should lead Duke past a Kansas squad that has question marks on the interior.
Get ready for the Duke hate to be out in full force in the coming weeks.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
