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Upset potentials for Texas A&M: Aggies should be safe, but can they surprise?
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Texas A&M is among the surprises of the year in the SEC, jumping out to a 5-1 (2-1 SEC) record at the season’s halfway point. The young Aggies have flexed their muscles with wins over ranked teams like Mississippi State and Arizona State but are coming off their first loss of the season, a 41-23 defeat at the hands of SEC West foe Alabama.
Despite the loss to the Crimson Tide, Texas A&M is still very much alive in the division race. How the Aggies will respond in the season’s second half will speak volumes to the resolve of coach Kevin Sumlin’s squad of very young stars. At a game behind division-leader LSU, the Aggies don’t exactly control their own destiny. But winning out, especially with contests in hand against the Tigers, as well as Ole Miss, would put A&M in a favorable position to be fighting at season’s end for a trip to Atlanta’s SEC Championship Game.
It’s not like it can’t be done. Between its tilts with LSU and the Rebels, A&M faces a four-game stretch against teams that are 13-12 on the year and 2-9 within the SEC. That said, the Aggies have the talent to compete, but they have to avoid the dreaded upset bug.
Here’s a look at Texas A&M’s second-half slate and the likeliness of the Aggies being upset in their quest for their first-ever SEC West crown.
At Ole Miss, Oct. 24 – If someone is going to “upset” Texas A&M in the second half of the season, the best odds are on No. 24 Ole Miss to dole the Aggies their second loss. Hugh Freeze’s offense puts up points. Lots of them. Just ask Alabama. Chad Kelly and company hung 43 of them on the Crimson Tide in Week 3. The Rebels have scored 305 points on the season, 56 more than their next closest opponent Alabama and 86 more than Texas A&M. But Ole Miss is prepared if A&M wants to wage a shootout with the Aggies’ Kyle Allen (1,547 yards, 154 TDs). The Rebels defend the pass well, ranking second in the SEC in interceptions, pick-sixes and passed defended. Of course, Alabama is No. 1 in those categories and we all know how it ended for the Crimson Tide against Ole Miss … poorly. Depending on which Rebels squad shows up, this game can essential go either way.
Rebels Pull the Upset? Maybe.
South Carolina, Oct. 31 – The Gamecocks will have a new look from the squad that had its 2014 hopes badly quashed in Week 1 by the Aggies. South Carolina travels to College Station this year with a new (interim) head coach in Shawn Elliott providing an emotional spark and enough players remaining from last year’s squad to have a chip on their shoulder. Elliott was able to reignite the stagnant Gamecock running attack in his debut, albeit against Vanderbilt, as Brandon Wilds rushed for his second 100-yard effort this season and sixth of his career. A strong running game is vital if South Carolina thinks it can upset Texas A&M. Just look at what Alabama’s Derrick Henry (236 yards, 2 TDs) was able to do to the Aggies’ defense in Week 7. A&M ranks second-to-last in the SEC in run defense and No. 97 in the nation yielding 195.2 YPG. If you can run on Kevin Sumlin’s team, you should be able to set yourself up to compete against the Aggies — and potentially pull off the upset.
Gamecocks Pull the Upset? South Carolina gives the Aggies a scare, but no.
Auburn, Nov. 7 – Where Texas A&M has a favorable schedule in the second half, the same can’t be said of Auburn. The Tigers will travel to College Station during a stretch of games against five teams that were ranked at one point this season. The Week 9 contest between the Aggies and Tigers has all the makings of a lopsided affair, with A&M and its No. 3 offense in the SEC taking on Gus Malzahn’s squad, which ranks last in the conference in total defense. Auburn has shown signs of life, winning two games in a row, but too many questions remain, particularly under center.
Tigers Pull the Upset: Doubt it.
Western Carolina, No. 14 – Can’t in good consciousness predict a loss to an FCS opponent in Week 10. Kevin Sumlin’s team is too well-coached to succumb to such a defeat. Not that it hasn’t happened — just not to Texas A&M, at least not yet. The Aggies are 19-0 all-time against FCS schools. Western Carolina will be making its second trip into SEC country on the season, having previously been drubbed by Tennessee in Week 2 by a 55-10 score. The Catamounts were able to hang with the Volunteers on the ground (210 to 189 in rushing yards), but Josh Dobbs and Tennessee victimized the Western Carolina secondary for 237 yards in the air while the Volunteer pass defense allowed just 90 yards. Expect more of the same against A&M.
Catamounts Pull the Upset: Nope.
At Vanderbilt, Nov. 21 – Vanderbilt mostly lives and dies with quarterback Johnny McCrary, with the Commodores amassing more than 500 yards in the air than on the ground as a team. Only Missouri, however, has allowed fewer passing yards in the SEC this season than Texas A&M — allowing an SEC-low four touchdown throws (tied with Kentucky) against them all year. The Commodores have the No. 31-ranked defense in the nation, but are average against the pass and don’t sack the quarterback all that much (11 times all year). It just doesn’t add up to a win. Vandy is pesky, but expect a score similar to the one’s posted by Derek Mason’s squad in previous losses to Georgia (31-14) and Ole Miss (27-16).
Commodores Pull the Upset: Vandy hangs in first half, but no, the Commodores don’t win.
At LSU, Nov. 28 – As it stands at the midway point, it wouldn’t exactly be an upset in losing to undefeated LSU in Death Valley. Despite a defensive front that ranks No. 1 in the SEC in team sacks courtesy of defensive linemen Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall (14 combined sacks), Texas A&M doesn’t guard against run all that well. The Aggies give up an average of 200 yards on the ground, which spells bad news considering that LSU’s Leonard Fournette alone has rushed for 200 yards or three times this season. The Tigers, conversely, are stingy against the run, holding SEC East leader Florida to just 55 rushing yards. If Texas A&M wants to be the ones pulling the upset in the final week of the season, they’ll need to rely on steady play from quarterback Kyle Allen — something that was missing against Alabama. The sophomore is capable of big numbers and if A&M can somewhat slow down Fournette, they can put themselves in position to be the “upsetters,” rather than the “upsettees.”
Aggies Pull the Upset? It’s possible
Chris Wuensch is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers South Carolina and Tennessee.
