SEC football resumes Saturday at noon ET as Kentucky hosts Georgia. There are a total of six games with at least one conference member on the day.
Brian Edwards, a long-time Las Vegas handicapper with an emphasis on SEC football, will provide his thoughts and insights on the line moves throughout the 2014 season. Edwards, a University of Florida graduate, is a weekly radio guest in Las Vegas, Omaha and Memphis and makes regular appearances on Chad Millman’s betting podcast on ESPN.com.
You can check out his work on Twitter or on his website, BrianEdwardsSports.com.
SATURDAY
South Carolina at Florida
Kickoff: Noon ET
Friday Line: Florida -7 (opened -6.5)
Over/Under: 57.5 (opened 58.5)
Public: 55 percent Gamecocks
Edwards: “Florida has played very well the last two games. They like their coach. They want to save his job. If they win this for him, as long as they win by a fairly substantial margin against Eastern Kentucky next week, then you go to the FSU game. You’ve got to be competitive against FSU, because that team’s not that great. You don’t have to win it, but you’ve got to be very competitive. If he does that, hell, they might, for recruiting purposes, give him an extension the day after that. I think Muschamp’s in a great position to save his job and I never would’ve dreamed that following the Missouri game.
“Having said that, you’ve got to get this one and it’s not going to be easy at all. South Carolina’s had two weeks to get ready. Their 4-5 record is not any sort of indication of the type of team that they are. Four of their losses were one-possession games. Three of them they blew a lead in the fourth quarter. Two of them they blew double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. They’re 16-10-1 ATS as a road underdog. The Gators are 7-13 ATS as a home favorite under Will Muschamp.
“Sometimes you think will a 4-5 team have motivation? You’re dang right they’ve got motivation. They’ve won 11 games three years in a row. They don’t want to get left out of the postseason and they’re going to be an underdog at Clemson. South Carolina’s going to come in and give a good effort, and I like the Gamecocks.”
The Play: South Carolina.
Mississippi State at Alabama
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Friday Line: Alabama -9.5 (opened -7)
Over/Under: 53 (opened 52)
Public: 71 percent Bulldogs
Edwards: “The move from early in the week is probably some big sharp money. That surprised me. I grabbed it at plus-7 on Monday. I thought it might come back a little. I didn’t think it would head North of plus-7, but obviously there are some pros in Vegas that aren’t buying into Mississippi State. I don’t know why not. You look at that nine-game resume and there’s really nothing to not buy. They absolutely dominated Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn. They’re coming off an easy game against UT-Martin. Their horse running back Josh Robinson only had six carries, so he’s going to be very fresh. As a team, they’re fresh and healthy.
“Alabama’s coming off a battle royal, a 60-minute war and then some with overtime. The last time they did that in Baton Rouge, when AJ McCarron hit T.J. Yeldon on that screen pass that went for a touchdown to cap that comeback rally, the next week they came back to Tuscaloosa. Johnny Pigskin and A&M came in there and beat them outright. I think you’ve got a great chance to see that again this week.
“Put Mississippi State’s history in the rear-view mirror. This is the 2014 Mississippi State team and it is absolutely legit. Dak Prescott is a big-time player. Robinson’s a big-time running back. They’ve got some studs and future NFL players on defense. And the situation with Bama coming out of that game last week and Mississippi State having an easy game factors heavily. I love it at minus-9.5.
“I made the over/under 56.5. I think both offenses are better than the opposing defense. Mississippi State averages 522.1 yards per game. Their last two SEC road games had combined scores of 63 and 76. This is the second-lowest total Mississippi State has faced this year. Five of their last six games have had 61 combined points or more. Alabama scores too, obviously. They average 34.7 points per game. If there’s a weakness on Mississippi State’s defense, it’s definitely their secondary. Going against the best receiver in America in Amari Cooper, he’s going to make some plays.”
The Play: Mississippi State and the over.
Kentucky at Tennessee
Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
Friday Line: Tennessee -10.5 (opened -7)
Over/Under: 54 (opened 54)
Public: 59 percent Vols
Edwards: “I liked Tennessee at minus-7, but I didn’t get on it, and then Monday it had moved up to at least 8 and I was kicking myself that I didn’t take it. It doesn’t surprise me. Kentucky got out to that fast start, but they’ve been humbled since. They’re still a recruiting class or two away from legitimately being able to compete with the big boys in the SEC. They played Mississippi State tough and they scored some points on Georgia.
“Tennessee’s had two weeks to prepare coming off one of their biggest wins of the last several years rallying from double digits and winning in overtime against South Carolina. I don’t think UT has to fear any big letdown. They are focused on getting to a bowl game.”
The Play: Lean to Tennessee.
Auburn at Georgia
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m.
Friday Line: Georgia -2.5 (opened -2.5)
Over/Under: 69.5 (opened 68.5)
Public: 56 percent Tigers
Edwards: “The overriding factor driving me to this play is Auburn’s woeful defense the last four games. They’ve given up 38 to Mississippi State, 35 to South Carolina — with South Carolina coming up empty on three trips to the red zone — 31 to Ole Miss that could’ve been more, and 41 to Texas A&M. This defense is just a disaster right now and I think the loss of Duke Williams is going to hurt him. He has a team-high 38 catches, 609 yards and five touchdowns.
“Georgia has Todd Gurley back. You’ve got the huge revenge angle after getting beat on that flukey fourth-and-18 play last year. You’re at home. Everything points to Georgia, although I will concede that the head coaching advantage is a considerable one toward the Auburn sideline. I will concede that, and it does scare me, but not enough to not play it.”
The Play: Georgia.
Missouri at Texas A&M
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
Friday Line: Texas A&M -4 (opened -6)
Over/Under: 56 (opened 59)
Public: 52 percent Aggies
Edwards: “Kind of like the Tennessee game, I lean to Missouri, but I wish I would’ve gotten a better number early in the week. I usually do my numbers on Sunday, but I had plans so I actually did my numbers on Saturday before Texas A&M took the field against Auburn. I had Missouri as a three-point favorite. Obviously had I done them on Sunday after seeing how Kyle Allen played last week, I would’ve radically changed that number. I probably would’ve had A&M at minus-3 rather than plus-3.
“Missouri has been outstanding on the road. Since 2007, Missouri is 24-9 ATS on the road, covering in seven straight road games. I lean to Missouri, but it scares me because of the way A&M played last week. But A&M’s still got major issues on defense. Can Allen do that again? We’ll find out.
The Play: Lean to Missouri and the over.
LSU at Arkansas
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
Friday Line: Arkansas -1 (opened -2.5)
Over/Under: 48 (opened 47.5)
Public: 63 percent Tigers
Edwards: “I don’t know that I play it, but I lean to Arkansas. It’s like what I said about Bama, and maybe even more so because Bama got the win. They might be drained coming out of Baton Rouge last week, but it’s positive vibes, whereas LSU, you just lose an absolute heartbreaker. That one’s got to sting. I made it a pick ’em Saturday. I probably think more highly of LSU after last week, but being on the road coming off the Bama game, I probably wouldn’t change the line. I think it should be a pick ’em.
“Arkansas has had two weeks to prepare. It’s just time. I’ve been saying all year they’re going to clip somebody. This looks like the spot where it happens. It may happen next week to Ole Miss, too. I think the Razorbacks are going to finally get that ‘W’ in the SEC.”
The Play: Lean to Arkansas.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
