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What I want to see tonight from Tennessee, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
By John Crist
Published:
It’s here, SEC fans. Our national (regional?) nightmare is over. Tonight, football is finally back.
While the best conference in America is usually a Saturday enterprise, Week 1 features two matchups Thursday night. Tennessee will host Appalachian State, while South Carolina travels to Vanderbilt.
For the Volunteers, they are overwhelming favorites to win the East division. Steadily building the past three years under Butch Jones, they return 17 starters — plus everyone who matters on special teams — and are primed to make a push for Atlanta. If it doesn’t happen, 2016 is a disappointment.
As for the Gamecocks, first-year coach Will Muschamp has quite a rebuild on his hands. Derek Mason is in Year 3 with the Commodores, as he leans on running back Ralph Webb and an underrated defense.
Here is what I’m looking to see from Tennessee, South Carolina and Vandy on each side of the ball tonight.
tennessee offense
Even if Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara combine to rush for 300 yards, we’ll learn zero about the Vols.
We know UT can run the ball. Hurd and Kamara form one of the premier backfield combinations in the nation. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs is also an effective runner, be it on designed runs or scrambling.
But if Tennessee is going to take the next step offensively this season, then Dobbs (below) must be able to make explosive plays downfield in the passing game. His yards-per-attempt average of 6.7 a year ago is proof not only that he doesn’t hit on enough passes, but that too many of them are short throws.
For comparison’s sake, Georgia fans can’t wait to turn the page from senior Greyson Lambert and go forward with freshman Jacob Eason. But even Lambert averaged 7.7 yards per passing attempt in 2015.
And catch-and-run screens don’t count. Dobbs needs to connect vertically for 20-40 yards at a time.
tennessee defense
Appalachian State’s storied upset of Michigan at the Big House was in 2007. That’s a long time ago.
That being said, the Volunteers would be wise to take this squad seriously. This is an offense that averaged 36.7 points and 271.5 yards rushing per game — vs. lesser opponents, sure — last year.
UT brings back Derek Barnett and Corey Vereen at the defensive end position, but JUCO transfer Jonathan Kongbo is the player to watch in Week 1. Aside from Barnett and Vereen, the defensive line doesn’t return anybody that had more than 2.0 sacks in 2015. Kongbo could be a welcome trump card.
Back to Barnett: He was a double-digit sack guy as a freshman and then again as a sophomore. Now a junior, he’s ready to perhaps challenge Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett as the league’s best pass rusher.
If the front four can continually generate pressure without blitz help, the secondary should shine.
south carolina offense
Muschamp is on record saying two quarterbacks will play, although he hasn’t pointed out which two.
Reading the tea leaves, it’s fair to infer that senior Perry Orth (below) gets the start. Freshman Brandon McIlwain, who is the QB of the future in Columbia, will then come off the pine to enter the huddle.
For offensive coordinator Kurt Roper, has he installed different game plans for Orth and McIlwain? If so, then it’s conceivable that the Gamecocks plan to use a two-passer system all season. But if the play calls are relatively the same, then maybe the competition has simply been extended a bit.
Roper could be using this first game — with live bullets being fired — to make his final choice.
south carolina defense
This was the worst rushing defense in the conference a year ago, giving up 217.4 yards per contest.
The aforementioned Webb may not be LSU’s Leonard Fournette, but he’s a terrific ball carrier and on pace to be Vanderbilt’s all-time leading rusher. He’ll get somewhere in the vicinity of 25 carries.
Who is going to step up and be the primary stopper for USC? The No. 1 defender from this past year, linebacker Skai Moore, has a herniated disc in his neck and will miss the 2016 campaign. The ‘Cocks surrendered 5.1 yards per rush and 26 rushing TDs, which the Commodores will look to exploit again.
If Webb gains 100 yards, that’s fine. But if he rumbles for 150-plus, that’s trouble for Muschamp.
vanderbilt offense
Even facing a questionable defense, Webb can’t do it all by himself. This offense requires balance.
Kyle Shurmur (above), now a sophomore and the unquestioned starter under center, no longer has to look over his shoulder. Johnny McCrary — he started most of 2015 — transferred to Mercer. Mason thinks that should help Shurmer gain some confidence knowing that it’s his program for the time being.
If Webb can move the chains a few times early, that opens up play-action-pass chances for Shurmur.
vanderbilt defense
Zach Cunningham, Vandy’s do-everything linebacker, is a terrific player not getting enough praise.
He’ll be joined in the box this season by Oren Burks, who lined up at safety this past year. Moving to more of a hybrid linebacker/safety spot for 2016, he’ll be near the line of scrimmage more often and can lend Cunningham a helping hand against the run. It should be a smooth transition for Burks.
South Carolina doesn’t return much productivity on the ground from a season ago. Advantage ‘Dores.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
John Crist is an award-winning contributor to Saturday Down South.
