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It’s time to look at key questions across the SEC involving Saturday’s Week 1 slate of games:
PERCEPTION: SEC passing offenses will suffer from a down year
There will be a slew of new names under center when the 2015 season kicks off. That list potentially includes up to 10 quarterbacks making their first career Week 1 start — their first “opening day” start, if you would. Quarterback challenges have taken place this summer (some still continue) at Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. Roughly half the SEC will feature a new quarterback under center this year. As with any new quarterback, there are sure to be more questions than answers in the run up to their collegiate debut. And in the SEC, any hiccups can prove detrimental to a season.
REALITY: The SEC quarterbacks are a strong group
With so many new and old quarterbacks shuffling through camp, it can sometimes be difficult distinguishing between the likes of Kyle Allen and Brandon Harris or Brandon Allen and Treon Harris.
This is a talented and experienced group of signal callers in the SEC led by nine upperclassmen. All 17 quarterbacks still in contention to start this season — Alabama and Vanderbilt have yet to announce their starter — have played a snap in their careers.
The fact that the conference will start just one quarterback who was a five-star recruit (Kyle Allen, Texas A&M) out of high school in Week 1 shouldn’t be of any concern. Especially when you consider that there will likely be six three-star recruits starting the year under center in the SEC, including Dak Prescott of Mississippi State, Brandon Allen of Arkansas and Maty Mauk of Missouri. Upstart quarterbacks such as Auburn’s Jeremy Johnson, Tennessee’s Josh Dobbs and even South Carolina’s Connor Mitch all rated higher out of high school.
But none of those rankings matter now. If anything, it speaks to the depth of the SEC’s quarterback class.
PERCEPTION: SEC feasts on a cupcake non-conference schedule
With all due respect to the likes of New Mexico State, Tennessee-Martin and Southeast Missouri State, you’re not very imposing. At least not to any SEC teams, that is.
If you remove No. 15 Arizona State (Texas A&M), Louisville (No. 6 Auburn) and No. 20 Wisconsin (No. 3 Alabama) from the SEC’s Week 1 schedule, the rest of the league faces opponents that combined to go 64-73 last season in conferences such as the Sun Belt and Southland.
Each year, the SEC fattens up on these easy, lopsided wins. They might as well be scrimmage games.
REALITY: Perhaps, but they’re not the worst offenders
The SEC has six teams in the top 10 on Phil Steele’s “toughest 2015 schedules” and you want them to play a tougher slate of out-of-conference opponents? Aside from an anomalous Missouri with the 71st toughest schedule in the nation, the rest of the SEC ranks inside the top-41, with all but three teams (Ole Miss, Florida and Mizzou) landing within the top 30.
Has the SEC poached an easy win or two at the expense of smaller FCS schools? Definitely, about one per season per team … but they’re not the only ones.
The SEC is 44-6-2 all-time against FCS schools dating back to the inception of the two class system in 1978. South Carolina was upset twice by FCS schools when Furman first beat the Gamecocks in 1982, followed nearly eight years later to the day by The Citadel in 1990. The Bulldogs struck again two years later by shocking Arkansas in 1992. Florida (Georgia Southern, 2013) was the most recent SEC team to lose to an FCS squad, supplanting Mississippi State (Maine, 2004) and Ole Miss (Jacksonville State, 2010).
It’s almost poetic justice for South Carolina. The Gamecocks, along with Ole Miss, have each played and won the most games against FCS teams with 22 wins apiece in 24 tries than any other SEC program. South Carolina might want to look out; The Citadel arrives in Columbia in November.
Tennessee, on the other hand, has played FCS schools just six times in 37 years, winning all six.
Outside of the SEC, there are worse offenders. You have to scroll passed Clemson and Virginia Tech, as well as Kansas State, Louisville and Georgia Tech on the all-time wins-over-FCS schools leaderboard until you come across Ole Miss and South Carolina tied for No. 28.
PERCEPTION: A loss in Week 1 ruins your season
Want to deflate your postseason chances faster than a New England Patriots’ ball boy can lighten a football? Lose in Week 1 — especially to a far-inferior opponent. With one loss, you’re basically sounding the death knell on your season.
REALITY: Possibly, but there’s still hope
Your season is not ruined, but it certainly depends on who you lose to. Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon were all one-loss playoff teams in 2014 — but their losses came to respectable programs in No. 11 Mississippi State, Virginia Tech and Arizona. Lose to Appalachian State, however, and that’s a different story.
Plenty of teams have won a national title with one loss. In fact, three of the last four champs had a blemish on their record. But losing right out of the box, especially against an inferior opponent, is difficult to recover from. It forces a team to play nearly flawless football out of fear of losing that second game. Once you lose twice, you’re just about officially done. Only two teams in history have won a national championship with two losses, the 2007 LSU Tigers and the 1960 Minnesota Golden Gophers — who claimed their title prior to losing in their bowl game that year.
Chris Wuensch is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers South Carolina and Tennessee.
