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Week 10 win probability for every SEC team based on ESPN’s FPI
By Keith Farner
Published:
After a series of bye weeks, every SEC team is back in action during a busy Week 10 that features six conference games.
There are also a pair of SEC East games that feature formerly forgotten teams (Kentucky, South Carolina) against reeling opponents (Georgia, Missouri). But all eyes will be on Baton Rouge Saturday night for the biggest game of the week, and possibly the year.
ESPN’s FPI offers a probability for every matchup.
Georgia Southern at Ole Miss (95.6 percent): Neither team is having a season to remember as the Eagles are 4-4 and Rebels are 3-5, including three consecutive losses, the first such streak since 2013. It’s a week to take a breath and heal the Rebels’ banged-up offensive line. But the Rebels’ weak rush defense will get tested against the No. 22 rush offense in the country. One key change is Rommel Mageo will start at middle linebacker after the Rebels allowed more than 300 yards the past two weeks.
Texas A&M (80.7 percent) at Mississippi State: The home team has won three straight, all by double digits, in this series, and last year the Aggies were up 24-10 at halftime. The last meeting in Starkville each team topped 500 yards as the Bulldogs prevailed 48-31.
The 3-5 start is Mississippi State’s worst since 2009, and given its SEC West gauntlet, making a bowl game seems to be an especially tall order. Given the Aggies’ No. 4 ranking in the College Football Playoff poll, their demeanor in this game could reveal the impact the ranking had on the team. Nick Fitzgerald, the Bulldogs’ leading passer and rusher, will have a tough task to tangle with an A&M defense that is second in the league with 26 sacks, and 19 takeaways.
Vanderbilt at Auburn (93.5 percent): Maybe the craziest stat in the SEC is the fact that Vanderbilt leads the all-time series 21-20-1.
Even with a five-game winning streak this season, every win for Auburn only amps up the buildup to the Iron Bowl. The Commodores having a two-game winning streak in the series, and a glimpse of Vanderbilt’s 2012 win over Auburn should be enough to keep the Tigers focused. The intriguing matchup in this one will be Auburn’s high-powered rushing attack against the capable Vanderbilt rush defense, which has held up against some strong rushing opponents. The Tigers will have a chance to bounce back following a big game from Chad Kelly as they now face Kyle Shumur, who has thrown for more than 150 yards once this season.
Florida (65.2 percent) at Arkansas: The Gators have struggled against the SEC West recently, and in November the past three seasons they have a losing record. The last meeting in the series came in 2013 in Gainesville when Arkansas had a 7-0 lead, but lost 30-10. They key matchup will be Austin Allen and Rawleigh Williams III, who are each in the top four in the SEC in yards at their respective positions, against one of the best defenses in the land. This is the start of a tough stretch for Florida as it tries to maintain its East lead, and there will be reminders of last year’s offensive dropoff down the stretch.
Missouri at South Carolina (54.8 percent): The next chapter in the Jake Bentley silver screen story brings the Tigers into the picture coming off of four straight losses. Though that and the Gamecocks’ upset win over Tennessee didn’t sway the FPI probability much more than a coin flip. The Tigers have held the Columbia Cup the last two years, including when they withstood 20 straight points two years ago in the Palmetto State only to prevail, 21-20. A win here — the cap of a five-game home stand — would propel the Gamecocks to a fifth win with Western Carolina on the horizon and a bowl in sight.
Tennessee Tech at Tennessee (99.4 percent): This breather of a game comes at an ideal time to stabilize the program following the upset loss at South Carolina and off-the-field issues around Jalen Hurd. The Golden Eagles are 3-5, but beat Southeast Missouri following losses to Eastern Illinois and Jacksonville State. With the revamped backfield and Alvin Kamara dealing with an injury, John Kelly should get the bulk of the carries. He had 94 yards on 14 carries last week.
Georgia (58.2 percent) at Kentucky: The Bulldogs have won six straight in the series by an average of three touchdowns per game, but Kentucky will have the momentum at night at home.
This Georgia team has lost four of its last five, while Kentucky has won five of its past six. A Kentucky win would clinch at least second place in the East. It would also officially lock up a bowl game for the first time since 2010 with winless Austin Peay still on the schedule.
A Kentucky win would be the first over Georgia in 10 years at Commonwealth Stadium, but the Wildcats last beat Georgia in Athens in 2009. Overall, they haven’t won five SEC games since 1977. Kentucky has strung together the winning streak behind a multi-pronged rushing attack and the play of backup quarterback Stephen Johnson. Georgia, conversely, has been hurt by a lackluster running game and shoddy offensive line that has forced Jacob Eason to scramble often.
Alabama (65.5 percent) at LSU: Much has been made about Leonard Fournette’s return from injury against Ole Miss. But Alabama also held him to 31 yards on 19 carries last season. Last year’s game also crumbled quickly for LSU, which entered No. 2 in the College Football Playoff ranking, but an early second half interception led to 17 consecutive Alabama points.
This amounts to an elimination game for LSU, and even with a win, the Tigers would need help to win the West. The Tigers are trying to beat Alabama for the first time since the 2011 regular season.
While Jalen Hurts has passed virtually every test in his young career, Tiger Stadium at night will be among the toughest to date. The last meeting in Tiger Stadium, Alabama needed a last-second field goal to set up an overtime win. Hurts is completing 62 percent of his passes and has 12 touchdowns, but four of his five interceptions have come in the past three games.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
