Week 13 CFP Rankings: Florida has outside chance to be second SEC team
By John Crist
Published:
There was no change among the Top 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings from a week ago. No change was necessary, of course.
No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Clemson all walked away victorious this past Saturday, even if the Crimson Tide and Tigers did so in much more impressive fashion than the Buckeyes and Wolverines.
That being said, there will absolutely be some reshuffling of the deck once the regular season ends — the Big 12 plays an extra week of “regular season” action, but whatever — in Week 13. With Ohio State and Michigan scheduled to face each other in Columbus, it’s a de facto elimination game for the Final Four.
One team that won’t be moving up is Louisville. Because Houston coach Tom Herman has demonstrated the ability to show up for the big ones, the Cougars hammered the Cardinals last Thursday and dropped them from fifth to 11th.
Here are my four most important takeaways from the fourth release of the CFP rankings. The ball isn’t crystal clear just yet, but it’s less cloudy.
Not-so-Iron Bowl
Repeating to some degree what I wrote last week, the Iron Bowl matchup between Alabama and Auburn will have no effect on the Playoff picture.
Because the Tigers were upset at Georgia in Week 11, the Crimson Tide have long since clinched the West. There’s nothing Auburn can do to get to the SEC title game, nothing it can do to derail ‘Bama on its way to Atlanta.
Additionally, as the lone undefeated team from a Power 5 conference, the Tide don’t even have to beat the Tigers at Bryant-Denny Stadium. If coach Nick Saban so desires, he can rest his starters and make sure all the upperclassmen — he doesn’t have an abundance of them, which is nuts — play as much as they want on Senior Day.
Yes, Alabama can essentially phone it in and not worry about the result. If the Crimson Tide fall to 11-1 but still take care of Florida the following week at the Georgia Dome, they’ll be in the Final Four. Probably as the top seed, too.
But don’t worry, Yellowhammer State enthusiasts. The Iron Bowl is always must-see-TV. The stakes just aren’t as high, that’s all.
Record above all
The committee surely has a laundry list of criteria for coming up with its Top 25, but clearly win-loss record is of the utmost importance.
Once again, Alabama is the only unbeaten team from a big-boy league — sorry, Western Michigan fans. The Crimson Tide are a unanimous No. 1 in both the AP and Coaches polls, so voters don’t need to use much imagination there.
That being said, it’s worth noting that the four one-loss programs from Power 5 conferences are all ranked second through fifth. That’s Ohio State, Michigan, Clemson and Washington, respectively. After that quartet are six consecutive two-loss clubs in Wisconsin, Penn State, Oklahoma, Colorado, Oklahoma State and Louisville.
You have to get to No. 12 before seeing some deviation from that pattern. Voters value three-loss USC (12th), three-loss Auburn (13th) and three-loss Florida State (14th) ahead of two-loss Florida (15th) and two-loss Nebraska (16th).
Sure, there are good losses and bad losses. However, there’s never any substitute for racking up as many wins as possible.
Waiting in the weeds
Speaking of the Gators, believe it or not, there’s a better-than-fair chance that they make it to the playoff if they win out.
UF is coming off an upset of then-No. 16 LSU in Death Valley. While the Bayou Bengals may have fallen out of the CFP rankings entirely, that’s a tough place to play — under the lights or not — for any opponent.
Up next is the Sunshine State showdown with the Seminoles. FSU coach Jimbo Fisher has owned both intrastate rivalries since becoming the top face on the totem pole in Tallahassee, going 12-1 so far against Florida and Miami. If the Gators can triumph at Doak Campbell Stadium again, like they did in 2012, that would be another huge victory.
No matter what happens in the Capital City, UF will make its way to Atlanta the first weekend in December. Alabama will be a heavy favorite — as it should be — considering the fact that Florida didn’t put up much of a fight in 2015.
If the Gators can also find a way to win that one, then 10-2, SEC champs and a non-conference W over the ‘Noles would be quite a résumé.
Conference diplomacy
The playoff currently consists of four teams. There are five major conferences, so do the math: At least one gets left out every time.
In Year 1 of the College Football Playoff, one club each from the ACC (Florida State), Big Ten (Ohio State), Pac-12 (Oregon) and SEC (Alabama) got an invite. Big 12 contenders Baylor and TCU were left on the cutting-room floor.
In Year 2, it was the ACC (Clemson), Big Ten (Michigan State), Big 12 (Oklahoma) and SEC (Alabama again) that were represented. This time it was the Pac-12 that failed to make it to the dance, as conference champ Stanford was formidable but had two losses on its record. It wasn’t a hard decision to make.
I say this because the committee is probably wary about leaving the Pac-12 out in the cold two seasons in a row. As a result, No. 5 Washington probably gets in if it wins the league. No. 9 Colorado is worth keeping an eye on, too.
The ACC, Big Ten and SEC have all supplied qualified candidates year after year. The Big 12 and Pac-12 can’t necessarily say that.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
John Crist is an award-winning contributor to Saturday Down South.
