Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to the SEC’s playoff aspirations, based on the now-retired Homeland Security Advisory System. (Here’s a longer explanation.)
Not much changed this weekend among the playoff contenders, and that’s no big surprise — Boston College may have been the most difficult opponent any of the top teams faced.
RELATED: Herbstreit keeps SEC team in first
Until further notice, Florida State, Alabama and Oregon are three of the four College Football Playoff teams. None are guaranteed to win out, but if they do, they’re in. From there, Mississippi State is trying to fend off TCU, Ohio State and Baylor for the final spot.
In other words, we’re in the same place we were one week ago.
Scanning The Good Guys: The SEC will enter the final week of its regular season with two strong College Football Playoff contenders.
Alabama is two wins away from a guaranteed inclusion in the four-team field, first against Auburn in the Iron Bowl and then in the SEC championship game against Missouri or Georgia. But will the Tide be healthy enough to compete at that level after losing player after player against Western Carolina?
Mississippi State collected its sixth SEC win of the year against Vanderbilt on Saturday and now is one win away from an 11-win regular season. (The Vegas win total before the season was over/under 7.5).
Now for the terrorists.
THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE
Severe risk of terrorist attacks.
Florida State: A game-winning field goal late in the fourth quarter? Yawn. That’s where we are with this team. The Seminoles never put away Boston College and Florida castoff QB Tyler Murphy, needing a late field goal to claim 27 consecutive wins. Now the Gators get their own shot to send Will Muschamp into his soft landing with a huge victory. FSU will turn its attention back to the SEC from here, as Jameis Winston and friends likely have at least two games against teams from the conference if they winning.
Oregon: Marcus Mariota spent the weekend sending Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon a message through his play: you’re going to have to pry the Heisman from my not-dead-at-all hands. The Ducks should quack to the Pac-12 championship at 11-1 — the South Division still needs to sort itself out and name a champion — and barring an upset, Oregon will be back in the national championship picture for the first time since a loss to Auburn and Cam Newton.
TCU/Baylor: Why do I have a sneaking suspicion one of these teams is going to lose before the season is over? A reviving Texas hosts TCU on Thanksgiving night, trying to to its part to prevent any team from the Lone Star State from making the inaugural playoff. Meanwhile, a Horned Frogs win here and a Mississippi State loss all but guarantees TCU a spot in the playoff. The committee seems to have deduced that TCU is better, head-t0-head loss be darned. And with lowly Iowa State left on the schedule (and no conference championship game), it should be pretty easy to secure the fourth spot, the lack of a Big 12 championship game aside.
THREAT LEVEL: HIGH
High risk of terrorist attacks.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are the one team that can spoil the party, especially if the committee values conference championship game wins. That’s likely to be Florida State, Alabama, Oregon and … you guessed it — Ohio State. A lot of eyes will be on the Wisconsin-Minnesota game next weekend, as it determines which team will play the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game. The Badgers would represent a more respected opponent and a better resume-builder. Wisconsin getting an extra game also would mean Melvin Gordon could make a serious run at the Heisman Trophy and Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record. It also would mean that Minnesota, a strong non-conference win for TCU right now, would be diminished.
THREAT LEVEL: ELEVATED
Significant risk of terrorist attacks.
UCLA: The Bruins control the Pac-12 South, which Danny Kanell on Sunday called the greatest division in college football. On the one hand, Oregon already smothered UCLA, so that may not be the ideal rematch for the SEC. On the other hand, the Bruins just shredded the USC Trojans in the battle of Los Angeles. More than a few thousand UCLA fans asked themselves where this performance was earlier in the season against Utah. For now, it looks like the best Jim Mora’s team can do is play spoiler.
Minnesota/Wisconsin: That the Badgers are in this position with a quarterback situation more dire than Vanderbilt and LSU is a testament to the ability of Gordon and that offensive line. Golden Gophers running back David Cobb got snubbed as a Doak Walker Award semifinalist, then apparently tweaked his hamstring against Nebraska. Could Wisconsin benefit from playing its two toughest division opponents when the star running back isn’t his best?
THREAT LEVEL: GUARDED
General risk of terrorist attacks.
Marshall: The Thundering Herd weren’t very thunderous against UAB, which may not fund a football program in a few years, but nearly ruined a perfect season Saturday. In one of the most run-down, terrifying stadiums in America (Legion Field), the Blazers came within a fourth-and-1 of first-and-goal with less than one minute to play in a 23-18 loss. Marshall remains a strong contender to nab the Group of Six spot to one of the featured New Year’s bowl games. But not since the initial College Football Playoff Poll (East Carolina) has the committee ranked a non-power conference team in the Top 25. Regardless, Marshall is one of two unbeaten FBS teams in addition to Florida State.
Colorado State: The Rams are one win away from an out-of-nowhere 11-1 regular season. In spite of that, Boise State (9-2) is in position to win the very good Mountain Division of the MWC. It will be up to Utah State (9-3), installed as a 10-point underdog, to pull the division upset and elevate CSU to the MWC championship game. In that case, coach Jim McElwain and company have a great shot to overtake Marshall.
THREAT LEVEL: LOW
Low risk of terrorist attacks.
Virginia Tech: The Hokies lost to Wake Forest. 6-3. In DOUBLE OVERTIME. That’s right, neither team scored in regulation. That’s the first time that’s happened in an FBS game in eight years. The good news is maybe — just maybe — that could provide the impetus for change at head coach, where Frank Beamer just doesn’t get the job done any more. Public service reminder: this same 5-6 team beat Ohio State earlier in the season. The Hokies will face the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday with the loser forced to skip the experience of a mediocre bowl.
SMU: We can’t mention four of the worst teams in the country without including the Mustangs. The American Athletic Conference clearly is a league of haves (Memphis, UCF, Cincinnati, East Carolina) and have nots (Connecticut, Tulsa and Tulane). But SMU stands out above all those teams at 0-10. The Mustangs lost to the Knights, 53-7, on Saturday to move back to last in all of FBS in points per game allowed and points per game (44.1-9.7). And to think June Jones bailed on this team after two games. Hard to say whether he’s a prognosticative genius or a jerk/captain who bailed on the sinking ship early.
Iowa State: The Cyclones secured the title of worst Big 12 team on Saturday with a three-point home loss to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders (2-6 Big 12) and Kansas Jayhawks (0-7) are awful, but Iowa State is worse thanks to a pair of one-possession wins. The Cyclones gave up 41.6 points per game in the last seven games and still must trudge through two more games losses.
Georgia State: It’s almost worse that the Panthers won a game — by one point against Abilene Christian, the first and possibly the worst game involving an FBS team in the 2014 season. Georgia State is 0-10 since, including shutouts at Appalachian State and Clemson in two of its last three games, all miserable and all on the road. GSU even lost by 24 to a Troy team that’s otherwise 2-8.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
