Ad Disclosure
Week 2 probability for every SEC team based on ESPN’s FPI
By Keith Farner
Published:
With one week in the books, and fresh data to crunch, what is your team’s win probability for Week 2? Below is a list of every SEC team’s win probability for Week 2, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
For perspective, though, in Week 1, Kentucky had a 79.6 percent change to beat Southern Miss, Mississippi State a 97.5 percent change to beat South Alabama and South Carolina a 38.8 percent chance at Vanderbilt.
That’s why they play the games.
On to Week 2:
Alabama (94.7 percent) vs. Western Kentucky
Regardless of Nick Saban’s list of compliments toward Western Kentucky, the Hilltoppers are in for a long day. Sure, the program was 12-2 last season and beat Rice last week. But quarterback Mike White and receiver Taywan Taylor will quickly realize the talent upgrade from the likes of Rice and Conference USA-level opponents.
WKU’s Jeff Brohm is an up-and-comer in the coaching ranks, and could be plucked by a more high profile program after this season. That won’t help him Saturday. The only question will be the margin at the final buzzer, and how the Alabama quarterback snaps will be divided.
Arkansas (30.6 percent) at TCU
This ends a 25-year drought in the series between the old Southwest Conference rivals. This time it’s a matchup of contrasting styles as the Horned Frogs air it out, and the Razorbacks prefer to ground and pound. Arkansas likely won’t see an offense quite like this in the SEC. Austin Allen will have a tall order to keep up Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill as the Horned Frogs look to extend a 14-game home winning streak.
Auburn (95.7 percent) vs. Arkansas State
Coaching reunions will be the name of the game between Gus Malzahn and Trooper Taylor. It’s another game to watch the quarterback rotation, and Auburn will try to ignore the Red Wolves’ lopsided loss to Toledo. Malzahn, who coached Arkansas State to a 9-3 record before he got the Auburn job, will cross paths with Taylor, a former long-time Auburn assistant. The Tigers are a nearly three touchdown favorite, but don’t be surprised if it’s closer.
Florida (85.9 percent) vs. Kentucky
The 29-game winning streak will be on their mind as the Wildcats look to forget their dud of a finish last week against Southern Miss. It’s also a matchup of up-and-coming quarterbacks in Luke Del Rio and Drew Barker, who each have long-term potential, but haven’t settled into their own just yet. But the Kentucky offense isn’t as much of a concern as the defense, which could be just the track for the Del Rio-led offense to build momentum.
Georgia (99.9 percent) vs. Nicholls
Another name-the-score game, the storylines will be the quarterback rotation as crowd favorite Jacob Eason plays his first game in Sanford Stadium. The other question is how many freshmen will play. But there’s no doubt the game plan will be pretty basic as to not give away tendencies for the conference schedule.
LSU (99.0 percent) vs. Jacksonville State
Still licking their wounds after the season-opening loss to Wisconsin, the Tigers will look to get back on track against a better-than-average FCS team. The Gamecocks, remembered for taking Auburn to overtime last year, are ranked in the top five in FCS polls this week. But the talent disparity, combined with LSU being motivated from the early loss, should be more than enough to make the difference. The rebuilt offensive line and quarterback Brandon Harris should have a chance to build some confidence.
Ole Miss (99.2 percent) vs. Wofford
Coming off of a third-quarter debacle Monday against FSU, and two key injuries, Ole Miss has a chance to get back on track against an FCS team known for its prolific rushing ability. The Terriers had 346 yards rushing last week against Tennessee Tech, and averaged 300 yards last season, which was in the top five of FCS teams. This will give Ole Miss a chance to adjust new personnel plans following the injury loss of cornerback Ken Webster and running back Eric Swinney.
Mississippi State (58.8 percent) vs. South Carolina
These teams were on the opposite ends of field goal attempts last week as the Gamecocks got a last-second win, and the Bulldogs suffered a heart-breaking loss. It also offers more sample size for each coach to decide on a starting quarterback as each played two QBs last week. Each has a pocket passer and a running threat. They each have a defender who made a splash last week in A.J. Jefferson and T.J. Holloman. The FPI offers further proof that these teams have a lot in common and the result is little more than a coin flip.
Missouri (91.4 percent) vs. Eastern Michigan
Despite its financially-strapped athletics department, Eastern Michigan got off to a positive start last week with a win over Mississippi Valley State. But third-year coach Chris Creighton is just 4-21 at EMU, including just one win in the Mid-American Conference. The Missouri offense piled up plenty of yards last week, but converted just two of five trips inside the 20-yard line. Drew Lock led an upgraded passing attack with 280 yards at West Virginia. This gives the Tigers a chance to polish some of those rough patches.
Tennessee (87.2 percent) vs. Virginia Tech
“The Battle at Bristol” surroundings will overshadow this game, but both teams are looking for better starts this week after they trailed late in the first half, or at halftime last week against Appalachian State and Liberty, respectively.
Tennessee’s defense will again be tested, but this time against junior college transfer Jerod Evans, who threw four touchdowns last week, and receive Isaiah Ford, who has a school-record four consecutive 100-yard games.
Vols QB Joshua Dobbs, meanwhile, was held to 192 yards passing, with one touchdown and one interception against Appalachian State. Jalen Hurd, though, turned in a solid performance with 110 rushing yards and a saving TD.
Texas A&M (99.8 percent) vs. Prairie View
The Aggies are coming off a win over a ranked team for the third straight season, but they also gave up a late surge from UCLA. They likely won’t be pressed against the Panthers, who come from less than 50 miles from College Station. True freshman Trayveon Williams, who rushed 15 times for 94 yards, will get another chance to make some noise for however long he’s in the game.
Vanderbilt (75.1 percent) vs. Middle Tennessee
Though Derek Mason perplexed many with his quarterback rotation last week in the loss to South Carolina, he maintains he will continue to start Kyle Shurmur and play backup Wade Freebeck. The defense, which started well against South Carolina, will get a chance to slow down quarterback Brent Stockstill, who led a rout of Alabama A&M 55-0 with 329 yards and five touchdowns.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
