Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
As a whole, it’s fair to say the SEC has slightly underperformed relative to its lofty expectations early in 2015.
Of the five teams that have strayed at least a combined three touchdowns from the Vegas kickoff line in their games, just one of those has landed on the positive side — Ole Miss. The Rebels, also the only SEC team that’s unbeaten against the spread, has beaten the Vegas line by 63.5 points, or an average of more than three touchdowns per game.
Missouri (-32.5 ATS), Arkansas (-43.5) and Auburn (-61.5) have underwhelmed to a significant degree thus far. Granted, all three ranked as top 25 teams prior to the season, with the majority of us vastly overrating Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson in particular.
Mizzou is an interesting case in that the Tigers are 3-0 on the field and 0-3 in Vegas, notching one-possession wins against Arkansas State and Connecticut. The team gets its first SEC game of the year Saturday against Kentucky.
Another interesting team is Tennessee. The Vols gave up more than 400 passing yards to Bowling Green and allowed Oklahoma to overcome a 17-0 deficit at Neyland Stadium. Still, UT has beaten the Vegas line in two of its three games, and is fourth in the conference in terms of performance relative to expectations. So perhaps we’re being too hard on the Vols at this point.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Alabama is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Crimson Tide is +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Ole Miss | +63.5 | 3-0 |
| 2. Georgia | +17 | 2-1 |
| 3. LSU | +16 | 1-1 |
| 4. Tennessee | +9.5 | 2-1 |
| 5. Mississippi State | +8 | 2-1 |
| 6. Texas A&M | +5 | 2-1 |
| T7. Florida | +0.5 | 2-1 |
| T7. Kentucky | +0.5 | 1-2 |
| 9. Vanderbilt | -5.5 | 1-1-1 |
| 10. Alabama | -16 | 1-2 |
| 11. South Carolina | -25 | 1-2 |
| 12. Missouri | -32.5 | 0-3 |
| 13. Arkansas | -43.5 | 1-2 |
| 14. Auburn | -61.5 | 1-2 |
*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Missouri’s average Vegas line is minus-24.5, highest in the conference. It’s also an indication of how weak the Tigers competition has been thus far and one explanation for the team’s poor performance against the spread.
Thanks to Vanderbilt kicking off as a 46.5-point favorite against Austin Peay on Saturday, all 14 SEC teams are betting favorites, on average, in 2015. The SEC East claims the bottom three teams in terms of the average line in Vegas, with Vandy (-10.2), South Carolina (-2.3) and Kentucky (-2.2) not getting much respect from sports books.
Alabama (-18.3), owner of the longest favorite streak in college football history, is an uncharacteristic eighth in the SEC in terms of average line. The Tide probably has played the most difficult schedule thus far, beating a ranked Wisconsin team at a neutral site to open the season and losing to now-No. 3 Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa.
Georgia looks poised to take over the No. 1 spot on this list after Week 4 thanks to a game against Southern. The Bulldogs rank second this week despite already facing two SEC East teams.
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Missouri | -24.5 | -42 vs. SEMO |
| 2. Georgia | -23 | -35.5 vs. La.-Monroe |
| 3. Ole Miss | -22.5 | -43 vs. UT-Martin |
| 4. Texas A&M | -22 | -30.5 vs. Ball State |
| 5. Arkansas | -21.2 | -31.5 vs. UTEP |
| 6. Florida | -19.5 | -34.5 vs. New Mexico St. |
| 7. Tennessee | -19.2 | -37.5 vs. W. Carolina |
| 8. Mississippi State | -19 | -39.5 vs. Northwestern St. |
| 9. Alabama | -18.3 | -34.5 vs. Middle Tenn. |
| 10. Auburn | -17.2 | -47.5 vs. Jacksonville St. |
| 11. LSU | -16.3# | -39 vs. McNeese State |
| 12. Vanderbilt | -10.2 | -46.5 vs. Austin Peay |
| 13. South Carolina | -2.3 | -7 vs. Kentucky |
| 14. Kentucky | -2.2 | -17 vs. La.-Lafayette |
#LSU entered the game against McNeese State as a 39-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening few plays, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
Two teams are performing with extreme results to open the season.
Missouri, facing an average over/under of 50.7, has gone under the posted total in all three outings, despite it being the lowest average in the SEC. The Tigers defense has retained its bite while the offense has slipped. This weekend, Mizzou beat UConn, 9-6.
Ole Miss, facing an average line that is tied with Vanderbilt for ninth (54.2), is averaging 64.0 points per game on offense. So, even by pitching shutouts, the Rebels would be hitting the over on average. The team’s game against Alabama on Saturday featured 80 points.
Texas A&M (65.1) and Tennessee (65.0) lead the conference with the highest average Vegas total. The SEC East accounts for four of the bottom five teams.
| Team | Avg. Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | 65.1 | 66 vs. Nevada | 2/1 |
| 2. Tennessee | 65.0 | 68 vs. Bowling Green | 2/1 |
| 3. Arkansas | 59.0 | 69.5 vs. Texas Tech | 1/2 |
| 4. Mississippi State | 58.2 | 62 at Southern Miss | 1/2 |
| 5. South Carolina | 57.2 | 62 vs. North Carolina | 1/2 |
| 6. Auburn | 55.8 | 63 vs. Jacksonville St. | 2/1 |
| 7. Kentucky | 55.5 | 58 vs. La.-Lafayette | 1/2 |
| 8. LSU | 54.3# | 60.5 vs. McNeese St. | 1/1 |
| T9. Ole Miss | 54.2 | 56 vs. Fresno State | 3/0 |
| T9. Vanderbilt | 54.2 | 60 vs. Western Ky. | 0/2/1 |
| 11. Florida | 53.7 | 54.5 vs. New Mexico St. | 2/1 |
| 12. Georgia | 53.2 | 57.5 vs. La.-Monroe | 2/1 |
| 13. Alabama | 51.2 | 56.5 vs. Middle Tenn. | 2/1 |
| 14. Missouri | 50.7 | 55 at Arkansas State | 0/3 |
#LSU entered the game against McNeese State as a 39-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening few plays, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
