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It’s time to look at some key questions across the SEC involving Saturday’s Week 4 slate of games:
PERCEPTION: NEVER COUNT OUT A SABAN-COACHED BAMA
Alabama fell behind early to Ole Miss in Week 3, but quarterback Jake Coker and the Crimson Tide mounted a furious comeback to whittle a once 19-point lead down to six. This particular rally fell short, but you can never count Alabama out of a game, especially considering the revolving door of big-game names that have worn Crimson under Nick Saban.
REALITY: JUMP OUT BIG OR ELSE
Alabama came back on Ole Miss. That part is true. But the Crimson Tide might have been officially toast at the 6:43 mark of the second quarter when Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly scrambled for a 4-yard touchdown. The score put Ole Miss up 17-3, which is a nice lead, but not insurmountable — unless you are Alabama.
In Saban’s 111 games at the helm of Alabama, the Crimson Tide have won just two games in which they’ve trailed at one point by 14 points or more. Those lone come-from-behind victories came against Texas A&M in 2013 and in 2009 versus rival Auburn. Otherwise, Saban is a measly 2-16 when falling behind. The key to Alabama’s success has been getting out to an early lead.
It’s worth mentioning, however, that despite those “struggles,” that only trailing by 14 more points 18 times in eight-plus years in slightly mind bending.
Alabama 2-16 under Nick Saban when trailing by at least 14 pts. Wins: 2013 vs Texas A&M (49-42) and 2009 at Auburn (won 26-21).
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 20, 2015
PERCEPTION: ARKANSAS DEFENSE WILL SURVIVE LOSS OF STARS
The Arkansas defense played lights out during the final stretch of the 2014 season, raising optimism to fever-pitch levels leading up to this season. Sure the Razorbacks lost four players on defense to the NFL draft and several others to attrition, but the pieces are still in place in second-year defensive coordinator Robb Smith’s arsenal. Players such as LB Brooks Ellis, CB Jared Collins, and DT Taiwan Johnson will form an experienced unit that will pick up where last year’s Hogs left off at No. 9 in the country in total defense.
REALITY: SO FAR … NOT SO GOOD
It’s not all bad in Fayetteville, despite the loss of Trey Flowers, Martrell Spaight, Darius Philon, Alan Turner and Tevin Mitchel. Arkansas has the 45th-ranked defense in the nation. But that might be all smoke and mirrors. The defense has been wildly inconsistent and losses to Toledo and Texas Tech don’t inspire confidence. This year’s unit has surrendered an average of 336 ypg, up slightly from 2014’s 323.4 ypg. Despite being a top-50 defense, Arkansas is yielding 5.8 yards per play — about a yard more than any other top-50 defense. The most telling stat, however, comes in the pass-rush department, specifically sacks. The only reason why Arkansas isn’t in dead last in the nation for sacks is by virtue of their name ranking among the top of the alphabet. The Razorbacks are one of six teams in the nation with just one sack on the year, putting them in the company of San Jose State, Tulane and Western Michigan.
PERCEPTION: THE SEC WEST BELONGS TO OLE MISS
Start booking your hotel rooms in Atlanta, because Ole Miss has the SEC West wrapped up courtesy of the Rebels’ upending of No. 2 Alabama in Week 3. Ole Miss is dominating teams on both sides of the ball en route to a 3-0 mark in which they’ve outscored opponents 192-61 (64-20 average). Alabama was the toughest team on the Rebels’ schedule; Ole Miss will cartwheel to the SEC Championship Game.
REALITY: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN OXFORD
OK, so maybe that’s a bit of an exaggeration and the perception only in Oxford. But caveat emptor in Ole Miss: buyer beware of the Rebels. We’ve been down this path before. Sure, Ole Miss likely picks up six relatively easy wins with Vanderbilt, Florida, New Mexico State and Memphis next on the slate. That would move the No. 3 Rebels to 7-0 with a win over Alabama on their College Football Playoff résumé — leaving them with the very same record, ranking and victory over the Crimson Tide as last year. That Rebel squad went on to lose four times, starting in Week 8 against LSU. This year they’ll play host to No. 14 Texas A&M in Week 8, with a matchup against No. 8 LSU four weeks later — lest we forget the Egg Bowl against a motivated and dangerous Mississippi State. Not saying that history will repeat itself, but we know what happens when we forget the lessons of the past.
PERCEPTION: FLORIDA IS DOOMED WITH TREON HARRIS SUSPENSION
Florida quarterback Treon Harris was suspended on Wednesday along with teammate Jalen Tabor for failed and refused drug tests, respectively. Not many teams can survive the benching of a quarterback, even one that is platooning for time.
REALITY: SKY IS NOT FALLING IN SUNSHINE STATE
You have to wonder how long Treon Harris’ tenure in Gainesville is going to last. Harris has a slew of transgressions against him including run-ins with the law for marijuana use and sexual battery — charges that have since been dropped. But where there’s smoke, there’s fire and Harris has to be burning up his good standing under head coach Jim McElwain real fast. Truth is, Florida won’t miss him as badly as they’ll miss Jalen Tabor (10 tackles, INT) in an already dinged up secondary. Will Grier has basically supplanted Harris as the starter at quarterback, despite a lengthy fall camp battle and talk of platoons. Grier has attempted 30 more passes than the sophomore. Plus, Harris didn’t even take a snap in Week 3 against Kentucky, while Grier finished with 125 passing yards to go along with 61 rushing yards and an acrobatic 1-yard touchdown run to the open up the scoring in the 14-9 victory over the Wildcats. The real impact of Harris’ suspension will come if Grier goes down with an injury. Then McElwain will have to turn to one of the six other quarterbacks listed on his roster to fill the void.
Chris Wuensch is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers South Carolina and Tennessee.
