Week 5 SEC Primer: In a wide-open SEC race, Alabama-Georgia still sets the pace
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Everything you need to know about the Week 5 SEC slate, all in one place. Betting lines are via ESPNBet. A bold • indicates Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.
Game of the Week: Alabama at Georgia (-2.5)
The Stakes: This one needs no introduction, right? Alabama vs. Georgia has been the SEC’s defining rivalry for the better part of a decade, despite just two regular-season meetings since Kirby Smart‘s arrival at Georgia in 2016. Instead, the Tide and Dawgs have reserved their collisions for the sport’s biggest stages, meeting 3 times in the SEC Championship Game (2018, 2021, 2023) and twice in the CFP Championship Game (2017, 2021). Every one of those showdowns was meaningful and memorable, featuring some of the biggest stars and most dramatic moments of the era, and nearly all of them went right down to the wire. The winner in 4 of the past 7 games has had to stage a 4th-quarter comeback to pull it off, including both meetings in the national title game; in last year’s instant-classic Bama win in Tuscaloosa, both teams staged dramatic comebacks, at one point trading go-ahead touchdown bombs on consecutive snaps in the final 3 minutes.
Like a couple million other people, I went to bed that night feeling like I’d just watched one of the greatest games ever played. In terms of its resonance, though, it turned out it was no 2nd-and-26. For the first time this century, beating Georgia didn’t clinch the Tide’s case as championship material. They spent exactly 1 week atop the polls before biting the dust at Vanderbilt, an unthinkable upset that immediately eclipsed the Georgia win for historical impact. They lost twice more in the regular season, missed the Playoff (as they should have), and limped into the offseason with a perfunctory loss in a bowl game named for a “global leader in cybersecurity.”
Nor did losing the Biggest Game of the Year doom Georgia to the backseat. The Bulldogs never regained their perch as default frontrunners, but they were hardly also-rans, ultimately surviving the SEC gauntlet to claim the conference title and a first-round Playoff bye as the No. 2 seed. If Dawgs fans counted the ’24 season as a disappointment in the end, the heartbreaker at Bama wound up nowhere near the top of the list of reasons why.
So, for once, the ’25 edition arrives with a little less sturm und drang than this rivalry is accustomed to. Other than the fact that these are still the 2 most talented rosters in America in terms of recruiting rankings, not much about these teams feels familiar. Alabama under Kalen DeBoer has quickly earned its reputation as a basket case on the road, with losses in 5 of its past 6 outside of Tuscaloosa. Despite a couple of dominant outings in the meantime, memories are fresh of the opening-day debacle at Florida State, arguably the worst any Crimson Tide outfit has looked in nearly 20 years.
Bama has not descended into full-blown mediocrity — not yet. Still too many 5-stars in the deck, as we saw in a blowout win over Wisconsin in Week 3. But it is a wild card, replacing the week-in, week-out consistency that defined the program for so many years with a series of peaks and valleys on the way down. Emotionally, last year’s win over Georgia was like Mount Everest, or at least as close as you can get in the conference opener in late September. This year? A big, fat TBD.
For Georgia’s part, the sense of inevitability that surrounded the program in its peak years had already evaporated well before Zabien Brown came down with the game-clinching interception off Carson Beck. Even in victory, the Bulldogs feel less like overlords these days than survivors. Their come-from-behind, 44-41 win at Tennessee in Week 3 was their 3rd overtime win in their past 4 games vs. power-conference opponents, following on the heels of last year’s razor-thin escapes against Georgia Tech and Texas to close the regular season. If you didn’t know any better, you might even describe them as scrappy or resilient. No doubt Smart would prefer it if you did. But that is not the kind of adjective you use to describe a team that has the luxury of shifting into cruise control until December.
Of course, it speaks volumes that even the slightly diminished, “rebuilding” versions of these programs still harbor realistic Playoff-or-bust expectations. Georgia has better national championship odds now, but the winner on Saturday night will take a giant step toward securing a CFP bid, at minimum, and probably emerges as the early favorite to win the SEC. As we learned last year, that doesn’t necessarily mean as much at this point on the calendar in the expanded Playoff era as it did a couple years ago. But if the drama lives up to the prevailing Bama-Georgia standard, here’s guessing you’re going to have a hard time of convincing anyone in the stadium that anything has changed.
When Bama has the ball: Can Georgia’s secondary handle Alabama’s wideouts?
Ryan Williams was the Dagws’ worst nightmare in 2024: 6 receptions, 177 yards, a couple of vault-worthy moments that will follow him the rest of his life. One of the true “A Star is Born” performances of the decade.
His star dimmed a bit after that, his last touchdown vs. an FBS opponent coming in a midseason loss at Tennessee. Like the rest of the team, Williams got off to a dubious start this year, finishing with more drops (3) than first downs (2) against Florida State; his afternoon ended early in Tallahassee due to a concussion that sidelined him for a 73-0 bonanza against UL-Monroe in Week 2. Finally, he was back to looking like his best self in the Tide’s Week 3 win over Wisconsin, turning in his first triple-digit receiving performance since his breakout game as a freshman. 109 of Williams’ 165 yards vs. the Badgers came after the catch, highlighted by a toe-tapping pirouette that immediately evoked the move that posterized UGA’s Julian Humphrey last year.
Alabama has plenty of concerns on offense, including an o-line that wilted in pass protection against Florida State and a ground attack that has become virtually irrelevant sans Jalen Milroe. But as long as the Tide have that, they will never be out of any game. Through 3 games, the starting rotation of Williams, Germie Bernard and Miami transfer Isaiah Horton has averaged 16.9 yards per catch with 11 catches of 20+ yards and 5 touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia’s secondary was a sore point throughout last season (by Georgia standards, anyway) and didn’t do anything to alleviate the concerns in its only relevant outing to date against Tennessee. The Vols repeatedly struck paydirt downfield, winning jump balls, drawing multiple flags for pass interference, and on at least one occasion springing a receiver for a wide-open touchdown. Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar finished 5-for-6 with 4 touchdowns on attempts of 20+ yards alone, joining CJ Stroud (2022), Mac Jones (2020), Joe Burrow (2019) and Drew Lock (2017) as the only opposing QBs to drop 4 TD passes on Georgia in Kirby Smart’s tenure. Either Aguilar is a sneaky first-round prospect, or Georgia has some significant work to do on the back end.
When Georgia has the ball: Can the Dawgs control the clock?
Georgia’s ground game against Tennessee was nothing to write home about: Employing their usual running back-by-committee approach, the Bulldogs ran 51 times (excluding sacks) for 208 yards, good for a pedestrian 4.1 yards per attempt. But it had its moments. Most notably, there was the opening drive of the second half, a 14-play, 75-yard slog that unfolded almost entirely on the ground; that march took up half the 3rd quarter, resulting in a go-ahead touchdown from a yard out. The game-winning TD “drive” in overtime also consisted of 3 straight runs.
But you can’t really talk about Georgia’s running game under offensive coordinator Mike Bobo without factoring in screens. QB Gunner Stockton, making his first true road start, was 13-for-13 against the Vols on attempts behind the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus. Those attempts yielded 118 of his 304 passing yards and the first of his 2 touchdowns, a quick flip into the flat to USC transfer Zachariah Branch that broke for a 36-yard score due to textbook perimeter blocking.
If you count passes behind the LOS as de facto runs, the run game accounted for nearly two-thirds of the Bulldogs’ total output. Just as importantly on an afternoon when the defense was on its heels, Georgia controlled the ball for more than 38 minutes in regulation, racking up a 16-minute advantage in time of possession in the process. Keeping Bama’s explosive wideouts on the sideline for as long as possible will be a similarly high priority on Saturday night.
X-Factor: Alabama RB Jamarion Miller
Nobody is about to mistake Miller for one of the great Bama backs. But he was first among equals in the Crimson Tide’s backfield rotation in 2024, and he has been missed in the early going while rehabbing a dislocated collarbone. In his absence, the running backs have been afterthoughts, logging a combined 34 carries for 112 yards (3.3 ypc) against Florida State and Wisconsin. They’ve also been unreliable in pass protection, which DeBoer cites as one of Miller’s strengths.
Miller has been cleared to play in Athens, and figures to play a significant role. Last year, Jalen Milroe ran wild on Georgia for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns, both part of Bama’s opening salvo en route to a 28-0 lead. (Miller was also on the receiving end of a touchdown pass from Milroe in the first quarter of that game.) Ty Simpson is no statue, but he’s obviously never going to be the every-down running threat that Milroe was, either. Granted that the Tide are going to sink or swim based on Simpson’s arm, what does the ideal version of the ground game under first-year coordinator Ryan Grubb even look like? If this weekend goes according to plan, Miller’s return will be their first real opportunity to find out.
The verdict …
Alabama’s track record on the road under Kalen DeBoer is alarming: 5 losses in the past 6 outside of Tuscaloosa, 4 of them as a double-digit favorite. Meanwhile, Georgia has won 33 straight at home since an October 2019 loss to South Carolina in double overtime. The Bulldogs might be as gettable right now as they’ve been at any point since then. Bama has rebounded from the Week 1 FSU debacle with 2 near-flawless performances at home. But the Crimson Tide have forfeited the benefit of the doubt on this stage until further notice.
Prediction: • Georgia 32, Alabama 27
LSU at Ole Miss (-1.5)
Lane Kiffin: It’s one of the biggest games of your career. Who’s your quarterback?
Austin Simmons was the up-and-coming talent touted as the heir apparent to Jaxson Dart, and might still be. But it’s Trinidad Chambliss, the dual-threat Division II transfer with the meme-able name, who has been the breakout star of Ole Miss’ 4-0 start, accounting for 834 total yards and five touchdowns in Simmons’ absence in a pair of high-scoring wins over Arkansas and Tulane. If it was up to a fan vote, the pecking order for this weekend’s tilt against LSU would be a no-brainer.
Not so much, however, for Kiffin, who told reporters earlier in the week that he was undecided on a starter, and that the decision would hinge mainly on the status of Simmons’ gimpy ankle. “At 100% he was our starting quarterback,” Kiffin said, the past-tense in that response doing some heavy lifting.
Look, Kiffin has more at stake in how this situation plays out than just beating LSU on Saturday. The Rebels are invested in Simmons long-term, whereas Chambliss — a 5th-year senior who arrived almost as an afterthought following a spring injury to backup AJ Maddox — is in his last year of eligibility. The last thing they need in the portal era is the QB of the future stewing on the sideline. There’s also the possibility that Kiffin has every intention of sticking with Chambliss and just doesn’t feel like tipping his hand. But voluntarily taking the ball out of one of the hottest hands in the country right now would be a gamble even for a guy as comfortable with rolling the dice as Kiffin. (For what it’s worth, several outlets cited sources and reported that Chambliss is starting.)
On the other sideline, there is no question about Heisman contender Garrett Nussmeier‘s status as QB1. But the offense as a whole has not exactly inspired confidence in case of a potential shootout, either. LSU’s first 3 wins over FBS opponents were all defensively-driven affairs in which Nussmeier struggled to connect downfield and the offense as a whole managed a grand total of 5 touchdowns. The Tigers averaged just 20 points in those games, and that includes a pick-6 by the defense in their Week 3 win over Florida.
A shootout is always a possibility in Oxford. Last year’s wild, overtime win over Ole Miss in Baton Rouge wasn’t Nussmeier’s best game, by a long shot. But it did culminate in his best moment: A last-gasp, 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive in the closing minutes that involved multiple do-or-die conversions, including the 4th-down touchdown strike that forced OT. In the extra frame, Nussmeier hit the late Kyren Lacy for a walk-off TD on LSU’s first snap, sealing a 29-26 triumph in a game the Tigers never led up to that point.
They could do without that much drama this time around, thanks, but the locals are eager for more fireworks. Vastly improved as the defense has been so far, no one should be surprised if it takes five touchdowns just to keep pace on Saturday. In the Tigers’ last three trips to Ole Miss – including the national championship season in 2019 – the average score is Tigers 41, Rebels 41.
Prediction: • Ole Miss 28, LSU 23
Auburn at Texas A&M (-6.5)
Hugh Freeze, vultures circling overhead, is desperate to avoid an 0-2 start in SEC play. That means getting the ball in the hands of Cam Coleman.
Auburn’s wild, 4-overtime upset over Texas A&M last November was a breakout stage for Coleman, a massively hyped freshman who entered as an underachiever with as many drops as touchdowns and exited as a rising star. He burned the Aggies for 7 catches, 128 yards and 2 TDs, part of a strong closing stretch that reset the hype to full-tilt entering Year 2.
It’s been a mixed bag so far in the early going, but not for lack of trying. Coleman’s presence was Auburn’s one and only excuse for allowing Jackson Arnold to drop back 49 times in last week’s 24-17 loss at Oklahoma. On 8 targets, Coleman came down with a pair of deep balls covering 46 yards and 42 yards, respectively; hauled in a short touchdown reception on a goal-line fade; forced 2 pass interference penalties at the expense of true freshman OU cornerback Courtland Guillory; drew what should have been a third DPI on an egregious no-call; and had what should have been a wide-open TD bounce off his fingers on a badly overthrown ball in the end zone.
This guy is going to make a lot of money catching passes from an NFL quarterback one day. At the rate it’s going, Auburn should probably start worrying that he’s not willing to wait until he actually gets to the NFL to do it.
Prediction: • Texas A&M 31, Auburn 22
Notre Dame (-4.5) at Arkansas
Last year, Notre Dame’s secondary was arguably the Irish’s biggest strength during their run to the CFP Championship Game. So far this year, it’s been a liability — through 3 games, the Irish rank a dismal 132nd in passing defense, and 105th in pass efficiency D, a column in which they led the nation in 2024. Partly, that’s due to injury: Two starters, All-American cornerback Leonard Moore and Alabama transfer DeVonta Smith, have been limited, with Smith missing the past 2 games against Texas A&M and Purdue, and Moore sitting out against the Boilermakers. Both are listed as questionable for Saturday’s trip to Fayetteville, with a pair of true freshmen on deck if necessary.
But that’s not the whole story. While the backups have struggled, so has holdover Christian Gray, a respected returning starter who has been heavily targeted in the early going; Gray’s 49.1 PFF coverage grade is among the worst in the country among full-time Power 4 corners. And he wasn’t nearly the worst offender in a 41-40 loss to Texas A&M in Week 3, when 4 other Irish DBs were victimized on completions of 20+ yards.
Arkansas doesn’t boast an individual game-breaker on the order of A&M’s Mario Craver, but the Razorbacks are not bereft, and Bobby Petrino is still scheming up open receivers on a regular basis. If an upset is in the cards, it’s because the Hogs finally ran into a defense as flammable as their own.
Prediction: • Notre Dame 34, Arkansas 26
Tennessee (-7.5) at Mississippi State
The 7.5-point spread in Starkville is a nod of respect to Mississippi State, which enters the SEC opener still technically riding a 12-game conference skid dating to October 2023. All 12 of those losses came by double digits, including a 33-14 decision at Tennessee last November. Year 2 under Jeff Lebby is off to a much better start, highlighted by a dramatic, 24-20 upset over Arizona State in Week 2. State cruised through the rest of the nonconference slate, arriving at 4-0 for the first time since the Dak Prescott-led team that spent 6 improbable weeks atop the AP poll in 2014. Unfortunately, Blake Shapen is no Dak. The ’25 Dogs will settle for a hard-clangin’ crowd, a 4-quarter fight, and (at best) a backdoor cover for their efforts.
Prediction: • Tennessee 35, Miss. State 23
Kentucky at South Carolina (-5.5)
Last year, South Carolina’s pass rush dominated a 31-6 romp in Lexington that set the tone for Kentucky’s descent to the bottom of the standings. Mark Stoops made overhauling the o-line a top offseason priority, adding seven new OL via the portal. The new starting tackles, Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green) and Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State), were all-conference picks at their previous stops who arrived at Kentucky with a combined 69 starts and 4,297 career snaps between them. Against SEC competition, the outlook remains TBD. Through 3 games, PFF has charged Wollschlaeger and Pete with a combined 15 QB pressures allowed, the majority of them coming in the Wildcats’ Week 2 loss against Ole Miss.
Not exactly an ideal situation to be trotting out a young quarterback, redshirt freshman Cutter Boley, making his first SEC start. (As if there ever is one.) Carolina edge rushers Dylan Stewart and Bryan Thomas Jr. rank among the conference’s more disruptive tandems with a combined 28 pressures on the season, but only managed to turn 1 of those pressures into a sack the past 2 weeks in losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri. Stewart, the breakout star of last year’s win at Kentucky as a true freshman, is overdue for a reminder of his enormous potential after an ejection against Vandy forced him to sit out the first half at Mizzou. Gamecocks fans are eagerly awaiting his arrival in Year 2 at Boley’s expense.
Prediction: South Carolina 24, • Kentucky 19
Utah State at Vanderbilt (-21.5)
The ‘Dores are 4-0 against the spread with plenty of room to spare, and I’m 0-4 picking against them to cover. I guess I’ve learned my lesson, huh? But wait! Utah State (3-1 overall) is also 4-0 against the spread under first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall, also with plenty of room to spare. The last time they were the designated roadkill against an SEC opponent, the Aggies refused to let Texas A&M run away with it in a Week 2 loss in College Station, salvaging a halfway-respectable 44-22 final score from a 30-6 halftime deficit. On the other hand, Utah State was a significantly bigger underdog in that game (+33.5) than it is in Nashville, narrowing the margin for error. The Vandy wagon is full speed ahead going into next week’s grudge match at Alabama, but before it rolls into Tuscaloosa, there’s one more garbage-time session for the sickos to sweat out.
Prediction: • Vanderbilt 41, Utah State 17
UMass at Missouri (-43.5)
A group of UMass faculty likes to annoy the administration by routinely voting to scrap the football program. A futile gesture, but the professors have a point. The Minutemen are on their 5th head coach since returning to the FBS ranks in 2012, during which time they’ve yet to win more than 4 games in a season. The current edition has lost 14 straight vs. FBS opponents dating to October 2023 – including a 45-3 beatdown from Mizzou last year – and it’s not getting any closer. UMass’ first 2 FBS games this year were a pair of blowout losses at the hands of Temple and Iowa by a combined score of 89-17, with a 1-point loss to FCS Bryant University sandwiched in between.
It can’t go on like this. Acknowledging it’s time to put up or bow out, the university recently announced a major investment in football, coinciding with its first year back in the MAC after a decade as an independent. UMass’ previous stint in the MAC from 2012-15 was as a football-only affiliate; this time it’s as a full-time member in all sports. Maybe joining a conference for real will spark a reversal of the Minutemen’s fortunes. Or maybe the rest of the league will quickly be reminded why they got the boot in the first place.
Prediction: • Missouri 55, UMass 7
Scoreboard
Week 4 record: 9-1 straight-up | 2-7 vs. spread (woof)
Season record: 44-9 straight-up | 21-27 vs. spread
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
