Week 6 SEC Primer: Welcome to the big stage, Vandy. This time, Alabama will be ready
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Everything you need to know about the Week 6 SEC slate, all in one place. (Bold • indicates Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.)
Game of the Week: Vanderbilt at Alabama (-10.5)
The stakes: The Biggest Game in Vanderbilt History? Sure, let’s go ahead and call it that. Why not?
It’s certainly the biggest game anyone can remember. If you’re a historian, or well north of a hundred years old, you might point out that Vandy was a perennial contender in one of the forerunners of the SEC, the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference, and on at least a couple of occasions in that era might have had an argument as the best team in America. (At least, according to some guy crunching the numbers many decades later.) Surely those teams played in some “big games” by the standards of the time. The Commodores occasionally appeared (although rarely finished) in the AP poll throughout the 1930s and ’40s, and played a handful of games in that span in which both teams were ranked. Those collisions must have felt like big ones on those particular Saturdays.
But you gotta go way, way back, is the point, to an era before television, much less College GameDay. In the past 70 years, Vanderbilt has played a grand total of 4 games as a ranked team vs. a ranked opponent. One of those was a 1956 loss to Ole Miss. Two others came in 2008, when the ‘Dores crept into the polls on the strength of a 4-0 start, beat No. 13 Auburn to improve to 5-0, then went on to lose 6 of their next 7; they were still clinging to a No. 22 ranking a couple weeks later in a loss at No. 10 Georgia. The most recent was last October, when No. 25 Vandy dropped a 27-24 decision to No. 5 Texas in Nashville.
There was some hoopla leading up to the 2008 Auburn game, mostly in the “Look at you, Vandy!” vein. GameDay was on campus for that one, too, a visit immortalized by the crowd sign that read “YOU PEOPLE ARE BLOCKING THE LIBRARY.” At that point, Vanderbilt was a quarter-century removed from its last winning season, and the idea of a Vandy outfit that was not abjectly terrible was a fun early-season subplot. They beat Auburn that day by 1 point, 14-13. But I remember 2008 well enough to confirm that no one was under any illusion that team was actually good. Those ‘Dores were pure scrappers who struggled to complete a forward pass and owed their fast start almost exclusively to a lopsided and unsustainable turnover margin. Staying power? Not a chance. They eked out a 7-6 finish, got a pat on the head for ending the bowl drought, and were quickly forgotten.
The 2025 ‘Dores do not look like scrappers. So far, anyway, they look good. Like, legitimately good good, a transfer portal-era miracle. They’re 5-0, up to No. 16 in the AP poll, and boast the widest point differential in the SEC. In Week 2, they emptied out the opposing stadium in a dominant second half at Virginia Tech. In Week 3, they opened conference play with a 31-7 blowout at then-No. 11 South Carolina. A 70-21 massacre of Georgia State in Week 4 represented the most points scored by any Vandy outfit against any opponent in 107 years. Last week’s “routine,” 55-35 win over Utah State left Vanderbilt — again, for emphasis: Vanderbilt — as the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense vs. FBS opponents for the month of September at 50.0 points per game. Irrepressible QB Diego Pavia, an obscure, unpolished upstart a year ago, is now a burgeoning Heisman candidate who leads the SEC in touchdowns, pass efficiency and Total QBR.
Above and beyond all of that, of course, this version of Vanderbilt arrives in Tuscaloosa with big-game cred against the likes of Alabama that only comes with having actually beaten Alabama. Not that last year’s monumental upset over the Tide was a “big game” in anyone’s mind except the Commodores’. It was a once-in-a-generation stunner genuinely no one saw or could have seen coming. Bama was freshly minted as the nation’s No. 1 team coming off a euphoric win over Georgia; Vandy was … well, Vandy, a nondescript outfit riding a 10-game SEC losing streak. The ‘Dores were only a couple weeks removed from an embarrassing loss to a team that went on to finish in last place in the Sun Belt Conference’s East Division. In this column, I wrote, “It’s probably giving Vandy a little too much credit to classify this as a ‘trap game,'” and “even a version of this (Alabama) team running on fumes is capable of covering a 3-touchdown spread.” Life comes at you fast.
A year later, the only similarity is that Bama is once again coming off a euphoric win over Georgia. Both teams’ trajectories were altered by The Upset in ways that seem more obvious in retrospect than they did in real time. It really was a turning point: Not only for Vandy’s reputation as a doormat, but also — probably even more so — for the Crimson Tide’s rep as a week-in, week-out machine that can be trusted to never play down to the competition. Nick Saban‘s Tide would never, could never lose that game. Kalen DeBoer‘s Tide did, and have gone on to lose several more since in equally demoralizing fashion. Last week’s triumph in Athens reestablished that, yes, Alabama is still a contender. It did not change the fact that, at this point, its credibility is only as good as its last game.
Meanwhile, amid the pandemonium that ensued after last year’s win over Bama, Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea described the scene as “not a finish point, but a hell of an arrival.” It didn’t really appear that way initially; the ‘Dores did go on to finish a game over .500 with a win in the Birmingham Bowl, but not before losing 4vof their last 5 in SEC play in typical Vandy fashion.
Nationally, The Upset was only invoked for what it said about Alabama, not about Vanderbilt. So far, though, this year’s team is on course to vindicate Lea’s vision. If it’s too soon to call them SEC and Playoff contenders in their own right, it’s also too soon to rule it out. (For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Football Power Index estimates Vandy’s Playoff chances at 42.5%, the 11th-best odds in the country.) They’ve arrived in the conversation, if nothing else. Saturday we find out if they have staying power. If so, it means the games are only going to keep getting bigger.
When Alabama has the ball: Can Vandy turn up the heat on Ty Simpson?
Florida State harassed Simpson on a regular basis in the opener, making him look erratic, indecisive and generally in over his head in his first career start. In the weeks since, he’s been one of the best-protected quarterbacks in America. In last week’s win at Georgia, Simpson finished without a stain, facing pressure on just 9 of his 41 drop-backs, per Pro Football Focus. He responded by putting on a clinic, operating confidently in pristine pockets like a seasoned vet. He was 21-for-30 passing for 252 yards and 2 touchdowns when kept clean, and that stat line would have looked a lot better if not for a couple of drops on 2 of this best throws of the night. All 11 of his touchdown passes this season have come from clean pockets.
Vanderbilt’s pass rush isn’t Florida State’s or Georgia’s, at least in terms of personnel. But the Commodores can be disruptive. They’ve logged multiple sacks in every game this season, and feature a couple of tenured bookends off the edge in 5th-year seniors Miles Capers and Khordae Sydnor. Bama fans will not-so-fondly recall Capers from one of the biggest swing plays in last year’s game, a strip sack that snuffed out a potential go-ahead drive in the 4th quarter.
That was 1 of 3 fumbles Capers forced last season, and it set up Vandy’s final touchdown drive of the afternoon to extend the cushion to double digits. The lineman he beat on that play, Elijah Pritchett, accepted an invitation to portal out at the end of the season. (He’s currently a backup at Nebraska.) His replacement at right tackle, Wilkin Formby, has been among the most improved players since the opener — along with his fellow bookend, left tackle and part-time wide receiver Kadyn Proctor — but is potentially beatable.
One thing the ‘Dores do not want is to be forced to bring extra rushers and leave themselves exposed on the back end against Alabama’s elite wideouts. Every blitz with Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard on the outside is a roll of the dice.
When Vanderbilt has the ball: Can the Commodores command the clock?
Vandy wrestled the clock into submission in last year’s upset, finishing with an incredible 24-minute advantage in time of possession. The ‘Dores converted more 3rd downs (12) than any opposing offense against Alabama since at least 2016, 5 of them coming on a marathon, 17-play, 75-yard TD drive in the first half that spanned nearly 10 minutes. (Notably, that march was aided by a couple of unforced, drive-extending penalties by Alabama’s defense, for illegal substitution and roughing the passer.) In the meantime, the explosive Crimson Tide offense stood idly by for long stretches. Vandy ran nearly as many plays before halftime (40) as the Tide ran the entire game (45).
The 2025 version of the offense is (so far) significantly more explosive than last year’s, but the ball-control blueprint has not changed. Besides serving as America’s introduction to Diego Pavia, the Bama game was also a glimpse of Pavia at his hyper-efficient best. Although he only put the ball in the air 20 times, he made them count, averaging 12.6 yards per attempt with 13 first downs and 2 touchdowns on 16 completions. (Nearly half of those first downs went to Pavia’s former New Mexico State teammate Eli Stowers, who moved the chains on all 6 of his receptions; Stowers remains his favorite target, and by general consensus, the top receiving threat in the country among tight ends.) Pavia finished with 308 total yards, a career-high 96.0 Total QBR rating, and a 218.8 passer rating, his best in a Vandy uniform and tied for the best by an opposing quarterback against Alabama since at least 2016. The Commodores are banking on a repeat performance on Saturday in hostile territory.
X-Factor: Vandy’s Offensive Line
The line got the job done against Bama in 2024. This year’s front is totally overhauled: Only 1 starter from last year’s game is back, 6th-year senior Chase Mitchell, and he’s moved inside to guard from tackle. Still, it’s a veteran group. Between Mitchell and long-in-the-tooth transfers Jordan White (Liberty/West Virginia), Isaia Glass (Oklahoma State/Arizona State) and Bryce Henderson (South Dakota), the starting five has combined for 142 career starts. White, a former All-CUSA pick at Liberty, is the SEC’s highest-graded center this season, per PFF, and potentially a future pro. Making consistent headway on the ground will go a long toward the Commodores’ twin goals of a) keeping Pavia out of obvious passing downs, and b) bleeding the clock to death.
The verdict …
From Bama’s perspective, this might be a grudge match. But focusing too much on the redemption/revenge angle gives short shrift to just how far Vanderbilt has come over the past 12 months and the very real opportunity the ‘Dores have to break through on a national stage — not as out-of-the-blue underdogs this time, but as an outfit that belongs in the CFP conversation. They aced their first 2 road tests at Virginia Tech and South Carolina. Diego Pavia has turned out to be as compelling a quarterback as he is a character. Saturday, he has a chance to become the first QB to beat Bama in back-to-back years since Saban started Bama’s revival in 2007.
On the other side, of course, is one of the nation’s most talented rosters with its back against the wall, facing not only the threat of being humbled again by the league’s longtime laughingstock but also of being booted to the margins of the Playoff race before midseason. And, let’s not forget, a significant home field advantage: The Crimson Tide have won 34 of their past 35 in Tuscaloosa, including 14 straight since their last home loss to Texas in September 2023. So far, virtually all of the angst of the early DeBoer era has unfolded on the road, where Bama has been a basketcase since last year’s meltdown in Nashville. If the chaos starts showing up at home, it’s really time to worry.
Prediction: • Alabama 36, Vanderbilt 23
Texas (-6.5) at Florida
For possibly the first time in his life, Arch Manning won’t be the starting quarterback under the most pressure – unlike DJ Lagway, at least he can be reasonably certain that, no matter how much his performance might inflame the Internet, it’s not going to directly cost his head coach his job. But the trip to The Swamp is the first road test since Manning’s opening-day humbling at Ohio State, and the first stop in a month-long tour before the Longhorns’ next home game against Vanderbilt on Nov. 1. That also makes it an opportunity to nip any simmering “Arch can’t handle hostile environments” buzz in the bud.
As for Lagway, well, at least he got one September Saturday that didn’t end in disaster. The Gators had Week 5 off to recuperate from a couple of catastrophic outings against rivals LSU and Miami – or to stew in them, depending on your perspective. Either way, the opening month was a nightmare, and it doesn’t get any easier: On the other side of the date with Texas, a trip to Texas A&M is on deck, with Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State looming in November.
Pretty much no one outside of Florida’s locker room still expects Billy Napier to be around by then. But if he is, it will be because Lagway used the open date to get back to first principles: Let it rip. As a freshman, he was electric throwing downfield, connecting on 19-of-36 attempts of 20+ air yards for an SEC-best 20.4 yards per attempt. Through 4 games this year, he’s a dismal 1-for-7, the lone completion coming on an improbable 1-handed grab in the opener against Long Island U. He’ll have one more weapon at his disposal on Saturday with the long-awaited debut of Dallas Wilson, a blue-chip freshman who made a big impression in the spring but missed the first 4 games due to a foot injury.
Prediction: • Texas 24, Florida 16
Kentucky at Georgia (-20.5)
They don’t always pull it off, but one thing you can be sure of when teams coached by Kirby Smart and Mark Stoops get together is they’re going to do everything in their power to get you home in time for supper. Georgia vs. Kentucky games are rarely entertaining, but they do tend to be brisk, routinely checking in at roughly three hours flat — an achievement in the era of endless targeting replays and TV timeouts. The 2022 game in Lexington came in at 3:02 despite airing in the afternoon “game of the week” window on CBS, which existed for the express purpose of maximizing TV timeouts. The 2020 game during the COVID year actually came in at a little under 3 hours on the SEC Network, a mutual feat of efficiency on both sides.
It probably helps that Georgia was in firm control of all of those games. Last year’s meeting, a skin-of-the-teeth, 13-12 escape that was in doubt until the end, broke with the trend, coming in at 3:35 on ABC. This year’s game is a noon kickoff on ABC, which doesn’t bode well from the broadcast side. But if the Dawgs get the opportunity to shift into cruise control while extending their winning streak to 16 over UK, don’t expect any objection from Kentucky’s sideline to getting it over with.
Prediction: Georgia 27, • Kentucky 10
Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-14.5)
Nobody is taking a win over this Mississippi State team for granted, 13-game conference losing streak notwithstanding. Based on last week’s upset bid against Tennessee in Starkville (not to mention the actual upset the Bulldogs pulled off against Arizona State in Week 2), that skid is due to come to an end sooner rather than later. But a primetime road trip to College Station is not a very opportune time or place, and 4-0 Texas A&M does not have the look of an outfit ripe for an ambush. In fact, the schedule sets up nicely for A&M over the coming month, with 3 unranked opponents on deck — MSU, Florida, and Arkansas — ahead of a couple of season-defining road tests at LSU and Missouri. The Aggies could cruise into November before we really have any idea how they stack up against a fellow CFP contender from the top half of the conference. But first they have to take care of business against the bottom half.
Prediction: Texas A&M 31, • Mississippi State 20
Kent State at Oklahoma (-45.5)
Oklahoma fans are praying that QB John Mateer and his surgically repaired hand will be cleared in time for next week’s Red River Showdown against Texas. In the meantime, they get to size up backup Michael Hawkins Jr., whose brief audition for the starting job last year as a true freshman — including a blowout loss against the Longhorns — inspired little confidence. Not that anything that might happen against arguably the worst team in the FBS is going to reassure the local if Hawkins does wind up getting the nod in Dallas. But they’d appreciate it if he can get through it without setting off any alarms.
Prediction: Oklahoma 45, • Kent State 3
Scoreboard
Week 5 record: 7-1 straight-up | 2-6 vs. spread (woof)
Season record: 51-10 straight-up | 23-33 vs. spread
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
