We’re not smiling about the Texas offense, especially when it gets bottled up in Starkville
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Texas safety Michael Taaffe did what you hoped any senior captain would do.
While sitting next to fellow No. 16 Arch Manning on Saturday night in Lexington, he looked out at the Texas media and defended his scrutinized team, specifically an offense that was held to a single touchdown with 179 yards of offense and 8 first downs in an overtime win against lowly Kentucky.
“These questions seem a little bit negative, not gonna lie, guys, to the offense,” Taaffe said on Saturday night. “I’ll say this. It’s frickin’ hard to win in the SEC. Go ask Georgia when they won the national championship, what they did against Kentucky last year when they won the SEC championship. What did they do against Kentucky last year? It’s hard to win in the SEC. We frickin’ won. Let’s put some smiles on our faces. We won, and the show goes on. We’re dancin’ and at the end of the day, we control our destiny.
“So, we’re gonna keep on pushin’ and we’re gonna do it with a smile on our face. There’s gonna be corrections, and I trust in my guys, I trust in my coaches, and I’m frickin’ excited, so I want y’all to put some smiles on your faces.”
There’s a lot to unpack there. We don’t have time to dig into the ethical issue with Taaffe’s “smile” request and why the media isn’t in that role to be a cheerleader, so we can leave that alone.
Taaffe is right that in an SEC that feels closer together than ever, there isn’t this great divide between the haves and the have-nots. He’s also right that Georgia struggled to move the ball in a night game at Kentucky last year.
But does he think Georgia was safe from criticism after it also had 1 touchdown in Lexington? This isn’t a “pick on Texas” deal. UGA, like Texas, was the preseason No. 1 team in America. Unlike Texas, though, that was the first moment in which UGA’s offense showed signs of real long-term issues, which ultimately played a part in its disappointing quarterfinal exit in a decisive loss to Notre Dame.
Texas, on the other hand, has now been held to 1 offensive touchdown in 3 of 4 games vs. Power Conference competition. Oh, and last I checked, the preseason No. 1 team in America already has 2 losses and doesn’t have any grace left, which is why it’s alarming to see the lack of urgency with the Texas offense.
(If you don’t believe that, tell me how many 9-3 at-large teams made the Playoff last year. It could happen, perhaps as soon as this year, but no 9-3 team should feel entitled to anything.)
Whether Taaffe or anyone in burnt orange wants to admit it, this offense has lost its grace.
At this point, it’s not even bold to say it’ll get bottled up on Saturday at Mississippi State
As Taaffe and others have pointed out, the gap between the top and bottom of the SEC isn’t very wide. Ergo, it shouldn’t be considered a surprise if and when Texas can’t move the football in Starkville. After all, that’s the same Mississippi State defense who held Tennessee and its No. 3 scoring offense in the FBS to just 1 offensive touchdown in the first 58 minutes. The Bulldogs also went into Kyle Field and had A&M stuck on 7 points deep into the 3rd quarter. Remember the Arizona State squad that gave Texas everything it could handle last year in the Peach Bowl? A Cam Skattebo-less group was held to 10-for-23 passing for 82 yards with just 4.5 yards per offensive play in a 24-20 loss at Mississippi State.
It’s frickin’ hard to win in the SEC, especially when the cowbells are rocking and you can’t think straight. Throw the records out. Shoot, Texas players like Ryan Wingo admitted after that road loss at then-1-3 Florida that “it was a little loud.”
What about the Texas offense has shown us that it can execute in another atmosphere that’ll be “a little loud?” The second half against Oklahoma felt like a breakthrough, but it might’ve felt that way because the rest of the meaningful sample size has been a tough watch for the Texas offense. In its games vs. Power Conference competition, here’s where it ranks among SEC teams:
- Scoring offense: 15th in SEC
- Yards/play: 13th in SEC
- Passing yards/game: 15th in SEC
- Rushing yards/game: 15th in SEC
- 3rd-down conversion rate: 10th in SEC
- Red-zone TD percentage: 11th in SEC
- Time of possession: 15th in SEC
- 20-yard scrimmage plays: T-11th in SEC
And if you take away the non-offensive touchdown that Ryan Niblett scored on the punt return against Oklahoma, we’re talking about a group that averaged 15 points per game in its 4 Power Conference matchups. Call me a bit too negative, but that’s not a unit worth smiling about.
You could argue that winning games away from home is more about getting out alive than earning style points. Fair. All 4 of those games were away from home against respected defensive minds. That’s what Texas signed up for. Texas also signed up for a roster that’s being paid well in the NIL era. That’s why criticism is warranted for a preseason favorite to win the national title. We’re heading into the final weekend in October, and Texas has 1 game vs. Power Conference competition with multiple offensive touchdowns. Mind you, it was the Florida game when the Longhorns were stuck on 7 points late into the 3rd quarter. Also of note, 1-3 Florida won that game and still fired Billy Napier 2 weeks later.
We’re 5.5 weeks removed from the UTEP game when Texas heard the boo birds because Manning had 10 consecutive incompletions. Spend any time watching the Texas offense and you’ll see Manning is still inaccurate on completable throws and his group of pass catchers has been disappointing. The numbers reflect that, too.
On passes 0-9 yards, Manning has a 66.0% adjusted completion percentage with 4.0 yards/attempt, both of which are a distant last among the 16 qualified SEC quarterbacks. On intermediate throws (10-19 yards), he’s 13th among SEC quarterbacks with a 58.1% adjusted completion percentage and 14th with 8.4 yards per attempt. To make matters worse, Texas pass catchers have just 6 contested catches, which is last in the SEC.
It’s not just Manning, though he’s at the center of a unit that’s been anything but reliable. All the turnover at the pass-catcher spots and the 4 new starters on the offensive line should’ve tempered some preseason expectations while allowing some early-season grace. We’re past that point now.
Texas can talk about “making corrections” and how it’s still in control of its own destiny, but those of us on the outside shouldn’t be surprised if a new reality plays out on Saturday. That is, Texas suffers that dreaded loss No. 3 while Jeff Lebby picks up that coveted SEC win No. 1. The Bulldogs are tied with Texas for the SEC lead in takeaways, and they’re first in the conference in interceptions. That explains why Texas is only a 6.5-point favorite (via BetMGM) against a Mississippi State squad that Manning rolled past in his first career SEC start in 2024. At this point, the only thing that would be surprising on Saturday is if Manning repeated his 358-yard, 3-touchdown performance from last season.
Time is ticking on the Texas offense to figure things out. As Taaffe said, it’s frickin’ hard to win in the SEC. It’s even harder to win in the SEC when your offense is stuck in neutral.
Sorry if that’s a little bit negative.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
