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Friedlander: Early ACC projections already are out the window with Duke’s upset of Clemson
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DURHAM, NC – Hello, ACC. Could I please have my preseason ballot back?
I’d like to make a few changes.
I know it’s easy to overreact to the things that happen during the opening week of a new season. But after the past couple of days, it’s not going too far out on a limb to say that a lot of us – myself included – have made a few miscalculations.
For starters, we should have listened to the hype about Florida State while being a little more skeptical about the hype over Clemson’s hiring of Garrett Riley as its new offensive coordinator.
This is not to say that the Tigers aren’t good. They are, with the potential to be very good as the season progresses.
As it stands now, though, FSU not Clemson is the team to beat in the ACC.
And man, did we all underestimate Duke.
It’s kind of crazy to justify now because the Blue Devils returned 17 starters from a team that won 9 games and is led by the ACC’s reigning Coach of the Year. Regardless of the degree of difficulty of their schedule, there’s no way Mike Elko’s team is tied for the 6th best in the league.
Duke showed that it’s fully capable of playing big boy football Monday night by beating preseason favorite Clemson 28-7 at Wallace Wade Stadium to throw a little early turmoil into a suddenly more interesting ACC season.
The last time the Blue Devils beat the Tigers by this large a margin was 1936. The last time it won a game this consequential, Steve Spurrier was their coach. Coincidentally, the Ol’ Ball Coach was in attendance for this one — a fact that got booed lustily by the sea of orange that was long gone before the remainder of the sellout crowd stormed the field once time expired.
Though it’s only 1 game and there are many more tough tests to come, including an upcoming date with Notre Dame, Duke has officially established itself as a legitimate contender for a spot in the conference championship game now that the Tigers are suddenly looking vulnerable and the standings having been turned upside down.
The same can be said for North Carolina, whose improved defense in a win against Clemson’s rival South Carolina in Charlotte on Saturday was equally as eye-opening, and several others around the league.
As for the Tigers, a loss on a night in which they got the best of their opponent in virtually every statistical category other than the score isn’t exactly the way Dabo Swinney had things planned.
Consider that before Monday, Clemson was 108-0-1 when it ran for more than 200 yards and passed for more than 200 yards in the same game, including a 58-0 mark under Swinney.
Make that 108-1-1 and 58-1.
The Tigers churned out 213 yards on the ground while Cade Klubnik threw for 209. But because of 2 blocked field goals and a pair of costly fumbles in close proximity, they came away empty-handed 3 times in 4 red zone trips.
Duke, by contrast, showed its experience and poise by overcoming its own early mistakes, playing some solid defense – especially in the secondary – taking advantage of Clemson’s self-inflicted wounds and riding the underappreciated artistry of quarterback Riley Leonard to its 1st-ever season-opening win against a top-25 team.
“Honestly, in all my years of football, I’ve never been a part of a game like that. Ever,” Swinney said of a result he described as an “incredibly disappointing loss.”
The good news for the 2-time national champion and his humbled team is that if you’re going to lose a game in college football, early in the season on the road to a talented opponent is the best possible scenario.
While winning another ACC championship and returning to the Playoff for the 1st time in 3 years are still viable goals for the Tigers, the road to get there just got a lot longer. Even longer than the walk Swinney had to make from Duke’s stadium to the remote visitor’s locker room he complained about earlier in the week.
All it takes is a quick comparison of the Week 1 performances of the top 2 teams in the previously mentioned ACC preseason poll to understand the uphill battle Clemson now faces.
And it’s not because of the results or the fact that the Tigers are starting in an unfamiliar 0-1 hole in the conference.
As much as Swinney is correct in saying that his team “had plenty of opportunities to get control of that game and just didn’t,” the Tigers simply looked slower, less physical and nowhere near as motivated or hungry as Florida State did in its impressive 45-24 beatdown of LSU in Orlando a day earlier.
We’ll be able to get a more accurate read on the differences between the teams in 3 weeks when they meet on the same field in Clemson for a highly-anticipated showdown.
Needless to say, Swinney, new coordinator Riley, their inexperienced though talented starting quarterback and the rest of the Tigers have a lot of work to do between now and then.
Starting with a quick turnaround game on Saturday at home against Charleston Southern.
“We’re not entitled to win,” Swinney said. “We’ve got to go earn it.”
Just as Duke did on Monday.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
