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Under Nick Saban, Alabama earned grace in preseason rankings.
In a given year, the Tide could lose 10 players to the NFL Draft and both coordinators, yet ranking Alabama outside of the preseason top 3 felt like a hot take. Why? Well, a program that finishes in the top 3 in 9 of 12 seasons (2009-21) typically gets the benefit of the doubt, especially when it’s led by the best coach in college football history, who also signs the No. 1 recruiting class in the country more times than not.
Alabama earned that grace.
But under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama has yet to earn that grace. So far, all that’s been earned are questions.
Like, why could someone put Alabama in the preseason top 10? I couldn’t do it.
To be clear, I don’t have some sort of predetermined narrative about Kalen DeBoer failing at this job because he’s an outsider, nor will I predict that his job is in jeopardy in Year 2. If anything, that element gives me a reason to root for DeBoer’s success because of how lazy that narrative is.
Ask yourself this, though. What area will Alabama be elite in that doesn’t include Ryan Williams?
Williams might be phenomenal and worthy of being considered a top-2 receiver in the sport — Jeremiah Smith is holding onto that No. 1 spot until further notice — but it’s hard to find other areas that look like a lock-it-in strength. True, the offensive line returns a ton of production, but it still struggled with consistency and lost its best player in Tyler Booker, AKA the only Alabama player who earned first-team All-SEC honors from the AP and the coaches. The running back room lost 5-star Justice Haynes to Michigan and is set to be led by Jam Miller, who didn’t crack the top 25 in the SEC in yards/carry.
Defensively, Kane Wommack returns plenty of key starters from a unit that finished No. 10 in scoring defense. Why isn’t that the strength with Deontae Lawson and LT Overton back? It could be, but perhaps there’s still some skepticism after the Tide were gashed for 200 rushing yards and 5 yards/carry in losses to Tennessee and Oklahoma. Or perhaps there’s skepticism that a non-Nick Saban unit will develop promising young players into All-SEC selections.
It’s strange to think that Alabama’s only returning All-SEC players are Williams and Kadyn Proctor, who got a second-team nod from the coaches even though he struggled down the stretch (PFF had him for 8 pressures and 2 sacks allowed on 42 pass-blocking snaps in Alabama’s final 3 games). Deontae Lawson might’ve earned that nod if he didn’t get hurt against Oklahoma, and he’ll likely be a preseason All-SEC guy entering the season, as will corner Domani Jackson.
The defense has fewer questions than the offense. Does it have enough proven pieces to be the backbone of a bona fide preseason top-10 team? It doesn’t. If you don’t believe that, tell me how many times Alabama’s defense put together an elite, 60-minute performance against a respected team to fuel a victory. LSU is the only example of that. The Mizzou shutout happened with an injured Brady Cook, and the defensive performance against South Carolina aged well, but we know that LaNorris Sellers was a much better player in the latter half of the season, yet the Tide nearly allowed him to lead a 2-touchdown comeback.
It ended up being a better unit than what we saw during that 6-quarter stretch vs. Georgia and Vanderbilt, but the consistency of that unit in a post-Saban is still a question entering 2025.
Notice that I didn’t mention the quarterback situation yet. There’s a reason for that. It’s because I wanted to lay out all the other pieces first. Sometimes, the other pieces lend themselves well to a new quarterback stepping in. Look at Ohio State with, ironically enough, former Alabama quarterback Julian Sayin. He’ll step into a situation in which he gets to throw to Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, which is easily the best receiver room in the country. He’ll do so with 2 proven offensive minds in Ryan Day and Chip Kelly.
Compare that to Alabama’s quarterback room. Jalen Milroe came back in 2024 as the highest finisher in the Heisman Trophy voting among all returning players, yet he was a complete wild card week to week. Ty Simpson is entering Year 4 having never started a game for 2 different coaching staffs, and he had 1 passing attempt vs. FBS competition after Week 3. Austin Mack is also still a bit of a mystery after coming with DeBoer and Nick Sheridan from Washington, so we can’t assume he’s destined for immediate greatness, and the same goes for 5-star true freshman Keelon Russell.
The quarterback position isn’t a proven commodity. You’re not giving the Tide a lofty preseason because of that position in the way that you could entering 2024 with Milroe. This highly regarded offensive staff would’ve earned some grace if it could’ve gotten Milroe into the Heisman discussion, or if he could’ve been viewed as a likely Round 1 guy in the NFL Draft. As impressive as some of the raw numbers were, Alabama fans know full well that he regressed.
That’s why Alabama is staring at its first preseason ranking outside the top 5 since 2008, with perhaps its worst preseason national title odds since that year, as well. Go figure that was also Year 2 of the Saban era. Alabama was barely inside the Top 25 at No. 24. By season’s end, the Tide felt much more like an emerging program than a wild card with a prominent head coach.
For now, the 2025 version of Alabama doesn’t feel like an emerging program. It feels like a group with more questions than answers.
When will that preseason grace come back? It’s at least a year away.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
