Why Kalen DeBoer won’t survive at Alabama past 2026
By David Wasson
Published:
Just over 43 years ago, the Alabama Crimson Tide chose former player Ray Perkins to take on the unenviable task of replacing a legend.
Paul Bryant had decided to retire after the 1982 season, capping a Hall of Fame career that included a then-record 323 victories and 6 storied national championships. Someone had to replace the almighty Bear, of course, so why not stay in the family and tap one of Bryant’s favorite players to assume the mantle.
The problem, of course, is replacing a giant like Bryant was practically impossible. No one could walk in those same shoes without the non-stop comparison to the almighty Bear, a shadow that somehow got cast even longer when Bryant suddenly died in January of 1983 before Perkins coached a single game.
Sure enough, Perkins flamed out in Tuscaloosa after four seasons and despite a solid 32-15-1 record. Put simply, just being very good wasn’t nearly good enough for Alabama fans still living large off the Bryant memory.
Flash forward to the present day, as Kalen DeBoer is preparing to begin his third season in Tuscaloosa after replacing the almighty Nick Saban – who won 6 more national titles at Alabama and retired with 297 on-field collegiate victories.
The Perkins/DeBoer comparisons have been and continue to be inevitable, for the simple fact that it is impossible to replace a legend. Which is why I come before you on this day to offer this stunning-yet-predictable prognostication:
Kalen DeBoer won’t survive at Alabama past 2026.
DeBoer’s crime, like Perkins, has as much to do with the reflection as it does the reality. Saban is still around, of course, as a weekly presence each fall Saturday afternoon on ESPN’s College GameDay. The field the Crimson Tide play on is named after Saban (and within a stadium named both for Bryant and former school president George Denny). Heck, the bronze statue of Saban alongside the Walk of Champions casts a literal shadow on DeBoer every time he leads the Tide into the stadium to play.
And just like Perkins, DeBoer will forever be judged not on his team’s actual merit but instead on what it is believed Saban would have done with the same talent. Don’t believe me, count how many times either television cameras catch Saban wincing while watching a game in Tuscaloosa in person or is referred to when Alabama is struggling.
Gaining any kind of consistent toehold of success in college football is harder than ever, now that every team is on television every week and Name, Image and Likeness has widened the paths to quasi-legally get money to players. Working every available NIL angle allows not only programs like Ole Miss to rise from the second tier of the SEC toward the top where the Alabamas and Georgia recently owned for themselves, it allows nouveau-riche programs nationwide like Texas Tech invest millions into roster acquisitions to compete for national titles.
That odd dynamic is one of the reasons Saban decided to hang ‘em up, after all. Saban’s unique superpower was convincing players that their best path to future NFL millions was to get in his system and go through his fabled Process – sit a year or 2 behind another All-American and develop into an invincible force at your position… then sit back and wait for Commissioner Goodell to call your name in the first round of the NFL Draft.
NIL riches blasted Saban’s Process to smithereens, of course, because why wait to play when you can simply choose another team and both play and get paid right now? Combined with the wide-open transfer portal, Alabama could no longer recruit and stash talent to allow it to marinate.
DeBoer operates squarely within that current dynamic, and while Alabama isn’t exactly trying to throw a telethon to raise NIL millions, Crimson Tide boosters aren’t exactly zillionaires either. There’s no Mark Cuban equivalent in Tuscaloosa funding the program like Cuban does with Indiana, nor is there a Cody Campbell – the erstwhile oil billionaire who bankrolled Texas Tech all the way to the College Football Playoff.
The combination of coaching against the rear-view mirror and vs. a more level playing field than ever before still has DeBoer trying to find consistent traction. His first team, stocked with plenty of Saban leftovers, struggled down the stretch in 2024 and went just 9-4 with a bowl loss to Michigan in Tampa while the College Football Playoff merrily steamed on without the Crimson Tide.
OK, Tide fans admitted. That’s the first season, and the transition was bound to be bumpy. And while Alabama appeared on paper to be a better team en route to an 11-4 record and a CFP berth, Tide fans watched the rushing game sputter to a stop on a weekly basis, their beloved team get waxed by Georgia in the SEC title game, and then a team that still refers to Rose Bowl glory in its fight song get spanked by Indiana in Pasadena.
Just like that, Alabama had regressed back to the pack. Simply rolling into a Rose Bowl expecting to win only results in a 38-3 loss that wasn’t even that close. The Crimson Tide had gone from purveyors of Joyless Murderball to now pretty much being just like everyone else: a program hopeful for a healthy dose of good breaks along the way just to get into position to compete in the postseason.
Which brings us to DeBoer in 2026. Not only will Alabama have to at least equal last season’s 10-win regular season, it will have to do so against the usual gauntlet of SEC heavyweights. Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn all smell blood in the water in the form of a first-year quarterback starter in either Keelon Russell or Austin Mack. The rushing game? Well, it probably can’t get any worse, but there are no concrete signs it will get any better either. And Alabama’s defense can only play so well for so long before crumbling yet again under the weight or carrying a pop-gun offense.
The whispers were there already at the end of 2025, with Alabama still alive in the College Football Playoff after a first-round win at Oklahoma, that DeBoer was looking for a way out. Michigan ended up being a mirage for DeBoer, partially because of that victory in Norman, but who knows just how close DeBoer came to listening to a potential offer from Ann Arbor.
And if the Tide find choppy water again this season, well, DeBoer is certainly self-aware enough to go looking for a lifeboat before the ship hits the proverbial iceberg.
That’s why it is probably more likely than not that Alabama will be riding on the coaching carousel at some point in 2026. DeBoer ain’t Saban, and Alabama simply can’t be the Alabama it was when Saban patrolled the sideline.
An APSE national award-winning writer and editor, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. He also hosts Gulfshore Sports with David Wasson, weekdays from 3-5 pm across Southwest Florida and on FoxSportsFM.com. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.
