Exactly one year ago today, the SEC represented history’s most powerful football conference.
But an unprecedented seven consecutive national championships never reached eight.
One of the most dominating, polarizing freshman in college football history — Jameis Winston — teamed with a defense loaded with NFL talent to deliver a now-rare unbeaten season for Florida State. The Seminoles still barely clipped a lucky-to-be-there Auburn in the final BCS national championship.
Many anticipated the conference would re-establish its dominance in 2014 as the sport welcomed the College Football Playoff. Instead, the Big Ten, left for dead after an anemic first two weeks of the regular season, kept the SEC from even playing in the national championship.
Which brings us to now: Will the SEC’s fade back to the pack continue for years, or will 2015 start another streak?
The 14 current conference members claim 20 of the 78 Associated Press national titles. But the 14 programs also have experienced four long droughts:
- Texas A&M won the second-ever AP title in 1939. Tennessee won its first in 1951 for a gap of 12 years.
- Alabama won AP titles in 1961, ’64 and ’65 under coach Bear Bryant, then went another 13 years before Bryant’s Crimson Tide won again in 1978.
- Bama won again in ’79, followed by Georgia, but the SEC didn’t win another AP title until Gene Stallings’ 1992 Alabama team upset Miami.
- Tennessee won a championship in 1998 under coach Phillip Fulmer, but the SEC went through an eight-year drought before coach Urban Meyer’s Florida team started the SEC’s magical run.
The SEC has plenty in its favor. Even with the Pac-12 and Big Ten collecting sexy coaches and strong recruiters, the SEC dominates recruiting rankings each season and should continue to do so, especially along the defensive line.
The SEC consistently produces more NFL draft picks than any other conference.
According to data provided by USA Today, five of the 12 highest-paid head coaches — and three of the four highest-paid assistant coaches — resided in SEC towns in 2014.
Sure, the class of the SEC West went 0-5 in bowl games, allowing an average of 39.6 points. But all five entered the bowls ranked in the Top 25, and with the exception of LSU, should join Missouri and Georgia from the East to give the SEC six teams in the final rankings.
The SEC will produce a bevy of top teams each season for the foreseeable future — most likely as long as college football exists. But if we’re strictly talking championships, there’s a strong chance the conference could take a back seat for several years to come.
First, let’s start with the College Football Playoff. Under the BCS system, we would’ve watched Alabama vs. Florida State for the national championship. The Crimson Tide likely would’ve claimed yet another title. But under the new system, the Tide and Seminoles will watch Ohio State and Oregon from their couches.
Any championship team now must win two games against the nation’s four best teams — presumably in addition to winning the SEC. That’s asking a ton.
National titles are about one outstanding team, not a collection of strong teams. This year’s Pac-12 is a great example of that. The Ducks are 6.5-point favorites to take this year’s title. The next highest-ranked Pac-12 team: Arizona at No. 12 in the AP poll. The same Wildcats team that lost to Boise State in this year’s Fiesta Bowl.
The SEC’s fourth team in the most recent AP poll, Georgia, ranked just behind the Pac-12’s second, and the Bulldogs won their bowl game. Yet the Pac-12 has a great opportunity to hoist the CFP trophy. As does the Big Ten, with just four teams ranked in the AP Top 25, including Nebraska in 25th.
It just takes one. And with Urban Meyer gone to the Big Ten, that one is Alabama. If the Tide don’t win, the SEC’s chances next season drop sharply.
Florida, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn are the other four SEC programs with multiple AP national championships. The Gators and Vols presumably are at least two years away from national title contention, while both West Division iterations of the Tigers have at least one major issue (LSU at quarterback, Auburn’s defense).
Maybe Auburn or Texas A&M pairs its splashy new defensive coordinator with its proven offensive system and gets hot and lucky. Maybe LSU gets a transfer quarterback and starts keeping some of its underclassmen talent. Maybe Florida and Tennessee develop faster than it seems likely.
But the likelihood is that if the SEC is going to win a national championship next season, it’s going to be Nick Saban coaching the team. The SEC has won seven titles in the last 16 years. Meyer and Saban are responsible for five of those. Cam Newton’s Heisman Trophy season provided the thrust for one of the others, and unless Dak Prescott returns, there doesn’t appear to be a quarterback capable of such single-season brilliance in the SEC in 2015.
It seems unfathomable that the SEC will go through another 12-year drought, as that would require 10 more seasons without a national championship. But it’s more likely than not that the conference goes at least another season without a championship, and maybe more.
The Big 12 and Pac-12 are legitimate annual threats now, and the Big Ten and ACC have a few annual frontrunners in Ohio State and Florida State. Potent offenses capable of exploiting even the best SEC units are popping up around the country.
To have a strong chance at starting another streak, the SEC needs a team as dominant as 2009 Alabama or 2010 Auburn. Those don’t come along every year in the SEC, much less nationally.
The SEC is still the best football conference, or at worst an equal to the Pac-12 and Big 12. But as much as the conference’s fans enjoyed the seven consecutive titles, it’s time to see it for what it is — a once-in-a-century anomaly that won’t be repeated any time soon.
ASSOCIATED PRESS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS BY SEC TEAMS
1939: Texas A&M
1951: Tennessee
1957: Auburn
1958: LSU
1961: Alabama
1964: Alabama
1965: Alabama
1978: Alabama
1979: Alabama
1980: Georgia
1992: Alabama
1996: Florida
1998: Tennessee
2006: Florida
2007: LSU
2008: Florida
2009: Alabama
2010: Auburn
2011: Alabama
2012: Alabama
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
