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Week 7 probability for every SEC team based on ESPN’s FPI
By Keith Farner
Published:
A couple of road teams are expected to coast to victory and losing teams likely will be eliminated from any chance at making it to Atlanta. Upsets are less likely than usual, as no matchup has a win probability of fewer than 60 percent, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Several divisional matchups could set up bigger showdowns at the end of the month as teams jockey for relevance entering November.
On to Week 7:
Mississippi State (28.8 percent) at BYU: Teams heading in opposite directions meet for a Friday night headline game in Provo, Utah, where the Cougars will host homecoming coming off of an upset win of Michigan State. Sixth-year quarterback Taysom Hill doesn’t figure to make many mistakes for BYU. The Bulldogs, however, need games like this to secure a bowl berth. But coach Dan Mullen is well aware of the atmosphere in Provo from when he coached at Utah. The Bulldogs will need to fix their run defense that gave up 228 yards to Auburn last week.
Vanderbilt at Georgia (77.4 percent): Georgia is looking to build momentum with a second consecutive win while also fixing its pass offense that registered just 29 yards last week at South Carolina. That wasn’t a problem ultimately because the Bulldogs chewed up 326 rushing yards.
They’ll look for more of the same against a Vanderbilt defense that yielded 5 yards per carry and 258 overall on the ground against Kentucky. The past five meetings have been high scoring, but this one figures to be lower scoring as both teams are in the bottom half of the league in that category.
Alabama (67.6 percent) at Tennessee: Tennessee has a stern test in the SEC’s top scoring offense as Alabama enters averaging 44.8 points per game on the strength of 35 touchdowns, six more than any other team.
Alabama has won nine consecutive in the series by an average of 21 points per game. The last Tennessee win came in 2006 when Mike Shula coached Alabama.
Jalen Hurd is expected to return for Tennessee, and he leads the Vols with 407 rushing yards. He’s been the focal point of a ground game that has 11 touchdowns and averages 192.5 yards per game, but Alvin Kamara was spectacular in a losing effort last week.
If he gets time to throw — hardly a guarantee — Joshua Dobbs and the Tennessee receivers will have a chance to put up some yards, as the Alabama pass defense is ranked just eighth in the league as it yields 223 yards per game.
Missouri at Florida (77.9 percent): The teams have split their meetings since Missouri joined the SEC. The SEC’s top passer per game is Drew Lock, who averages 335 yards per game. But he struggled against the Gators last season with two interceptions on 16-for-39 passing and 151 yards.
This season, Lock has passed for at least 280 yards in four games, and topped 375 in three. He has 14 TDs and four interceptions.
Florida, meanwhile, has allowed passing touchdowns only to Tennessee (four), and has eight interceptions, including one in every game but against Massachusetts. The Gators have allowed 139 yards per game, some 34 yards better than the next closest team.
Starting quarterback Luke Del Rio returns for Florida after its offense had a lackluster effort two weeks ago against Vanderbilt, with just 92 rushing yards and 236 total yards.
Ole Miss (76.6 percent) at Arkansas: This could be called an elimination game.
It has been a high-scoring series in recent years, most notably last year’s 53-52 overtime win by Arkansas. Ole Miss will try to have the same success Alabama had against the Arkansas offense after the Crimson Tide had seven sacks.
It’s an overall slip by the Razorbacks offense from recent years as it generates an average of 176.3 rushing yards per game and 14 sacks allowed.
Ole Miss features two receivers in the SEC’s top 11, most notably Evan Engram, arguably the best tight end in the league. He has 30 catches and four touchdowns. That helps make the Rebels the second-ranked scoring offense in the league, while Arkansas is fifth in the SEC.
Chad Kelly and Austin Allen are second and third in the league at 319 and 272 passing yards per game. Jared Cornelius, Arkansas’ top target, will try to match Engram’s production.
Southern Mississippi at LSU (96.7 percent): With an unexpected week off, LSU had extra time to adjust to tweaks and its newly juggled offensive line. With an overmatched non-conference foe, LSU will have a chance to duplicate the momentum it generated in Ed Orgeron’s debut as interim coach.
Leonard Fournette is not expected to play, but the Tigers shouldn’t need the running back.
LSU’s defense, though, could be tested by a Southern Mississippi offense that has topped 30 points in every game this season, including a win at Kentucky. But the Eagles fell last week against Texas-San Antonio 55-32.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
