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Year 2 outlook for Kirby Smart, Barry Odom and Will Muschamp

Keith Farner

By Keith Farner

Published:


If the honeymoons aren’t already over in Athens and both Columbias, they will be by the end of the spring.

Kirby Smart, Barry Odom and Will Muschamp have each ridden the tide of first-year coaches having the blessing of the administration and at least most of the fan base. Now it’s time to deliver improvement.

Smart at Georgia carried the momentum of the 93,000-plus spring game crowd into a 3-0 start, and a 4-1 finish to the 2016 season. Muschamp at South Carolina even added some equity to his cause with an upset win over Tennessee. Odom at Missouri seemingly has the most ground to make up, though he did beat Vanderbilt and Arkansas, the type of wins other SEC East rivals can’t claim.

Still, eight, six and four wins isn’t a long-term scenario any of the three coaches endorse.

Jim McElwain at Florida put unusual pressure on himself by exceeding expectations in his first season with an SEC East title and 10-4 record. McElwain also has the tri-comparison between Nick Saban, his former mentor at Alabama, Muschamp, his predecessor at Florida, and Urban Meyer, the last Florida coach to win a championship. Under far less expectations at Colorado State, McElwain improved from 4-8 in 2012 to 8-6 in 2013.

With a far more stable quarterback situation in his second year, and emerging talent at running back and receiver, Muschamp has made the most progress of the three since last spring. Smart, meanwhile, has added depth through recruiting, and had the benefit of several key players passing on the NFL Draft. Odom, who has a background on defense, saw his offense set several program records including 500.5 yards per game last season.

Measured against their predecessors, Smart has the tallest order to stack up with Mark Richt,, who improved from 8-4 to 13-1 in his second year. Steve Spurrier went from 7-5 to 8-5 in Year 2 at South Carolina, and Gary Pinkel from 4-7 to 5-7 in his second year at Missouri.

Of the 11 recent and current coaches below, there was an average of a two-win improvement in the second season (plus-22 margin). If those come to fruition, that would project Georgia for a 10-3 season, South Carolina at 8-5 and Missouri at 6-6. Would anything less be a disappointment? Yet keep in mind, Kevin Sumlin and Gus Malzahn each regressed in their second season at their current post.

Given that the pressure rises in Year 2, here are some recent and current coaches and how they performed in their first two seasons:

Urban Meyer, Florida

  • 2005: 9-3, won Outback Bowl
  • 2006: 13-1, won SEC East, SEC Championship, BCS Championship

Nick Saban, Alabama

  • 2007: 7-6, won Independence Bowl
  • 2008: 12-2, won SEC West, received Sugar Bowl at-large bid, lost to Utah

Dan Mullen, Mississippi State

  • 2009: 5-7
  • 2010: 9-4, beat Michigan in the Gator Bowl

Will Muschamp, Florida 

  • 2011: 7-6, won TaxSlayer Bowl
  • 2012: 11-2, received Sugar Bowl at-large bid, lost to Louisville

Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M

  • 2012: 11-2, beat Oklahoma in Cotton Bowl
  • 2013: 9-4, beat Duke in Chick-fil-A Bowl

Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss

  • 2012: 7-6, beat Pitt in BBVA Compass Bowl
  • 2013: 8-5, beat Georgia Tech in Music City Bowl

Butch Jones, Tennessee

  • 2013: 5-7
  • 2014: 7-6, beat Iowa in TaxSlayer Bowl

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

  • 2013: 2-10
  • 2014: 5-7

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

  • 2013: 12-2, won SEC Championship, lost to Florida State in BCS Championship
  • 2014: 8-5, lost to Wisconsin in Outback Bowl

Bret Bielema, Arkansas

  • 2013: 3-9
  • 2014: 7-6, beat Texas in Texas Bowl

Jim McElwain, Florida

  • 2015: 10-4, won SEC East, lost to Michigan in Citrus Bowl
  • 2016: 9-4, beat Iowa in Outback Bowl
Keith Farner

A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.

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