Paul Skenes Props & Predictions: Pirates vs. Mets Preview
By Adam Spencer
Published:
When the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets square off at Citi Field in Queens on March 26, 2026, at 1:15 p.m. ET, all the noise surrounding Opening Day takes a back seat to the guy toeing the rubber for Pittsburgh.
Both squads are staring at fresh 0-0 records, giving us a complete blank slate. But while the Mets are handing the ball to Freddy Peralta to defend their home turf, the real storyline is Pirates ace Paul Skenes.
As Skenes, a former LSU Tigers star, prepares to take the mound, the entire betting landscape revolves around one massive question: what can we expect from the phenom in this matchup?
We’re looking at a generational arm stepping into the spotlight once again. Let’s dive into his granular performance data, break down how he matches up against Peralta and the New York lineup, and pinpoint exactly where the value lies in his strikeout props as he looks to dismantle the Mets and secure Pittsburgh’s first win.
The Matchup: Paul Skenes vs. Mets Lineup
Skenes enters this matchup as an absolute force of nature, carrying a microscopic 1.96 career ERA and a 0.948 career WHIP over his 2 professional seasons. Hitters are essentially guessing at the plate, managing an anemic .199 opponent batting average against him. Point being: Skenes completely stifles traffic and misses bats at an elite level, racking up 10.36 strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9). Against a Mets lineup with some new faces in key places trying to establish some early rhythm, Skenes’ suffocating base-runner prevention makes him a monumental roadblock.
Finding the Edge: Paul Skenes Pitcher Props
When you have a pitcher with this kind of raw talent, the prop market is where we want to operate. Let’s look at the current board for Skenes’ highly anticipated start across the major sportsbooks:
Total Pitcher Strikeouts:
- FanDuel: Over 6.5 (+102) / Under 6.5 (-136)
- DraftKings: Over 6.5 (-109) / Under 6.5 (-117)
- BetMGM: Over 6.5 (-110) / Under 6.5 (-118)
Other Paul Skenes Pitcher Props (BetMGM Odds):
- Total Earned Runs: Over 1.5 (-110) / Under 1.5 (-125)
- Total Pitcher Outs: Over 15.5 (-105) / Under 15.5 (-135)
- Total Hits Allowed: Over 3.5 (-145) / Under 3.5 (+105)
The Pick: Paul Skenes over 6.5 strikeouts
Dude, what are you doing if you aren’t taking the over here? It’s early in the season, yes. That means the Pirates might have a shorter leash than normal for their ace. But it also means that the New York hitters aren’t quite in midseason form, either.
Look for Skenes to really get going in the 2nd and 3rd innings. If he pitches into the 6th inning of this matchup, I really like the over. Seven or more strikeouts is very doable for the Pittsburgh ace, and with FanDuel posting +102 odds on that prop, I’ll be taking that with a smile on my face.
Kalshi Win Probabilities
The Pirates are very slight underdogs on Kalshi. Pittsburgh is given a 49% chance to pull off the upset in the Big Apple. Check out the Kalshi market for this marquee Opening Day matchup below:
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
