Welcome to Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season.
We’re back with 3 bold picks for this upcoming NFL slate. All picks will be plus-money — hence the “bold” claim in the headline. Last week, we went 1-2 (down about a quarter of a unit).. We’ll aim for profitability this week.
NFL Week 4 bold predictions
Here are 3 picks for Week 4, along with where you can bet them for the most-favorable price among the best sports betting apps:
Packers vs. Cowboys pick
In the NFL, we often see teams who will bounce back after poor performances. These are professionals after all — for the most part, they’re too good to be kept down for too long. In the case of the Cowboys’ secondary, I’m not sure the problems are fixable. They have no pass rush because of the decision to trade Micah Parsons and their cornerbacks, Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam, are getting consistently bullied. Diggs was able to survive in this defense last year in-part because the pass rush was getting home, but that’s not happening anymore. Elam has gotten the worst of it — he’s conceded 14 catches on 17 targets for 209 yards. But Diggs has given up 3 touchdowns already and opposing receivers are averaging over 23 yards per reception (small sample size, but still.
With all of that in mind, I’m targeting a big-time passing performance from Green Bay this week. Dallas’s slot corners have actually shown some resistance, so I’m looking at outside receivers. Romeo Doubs seems like a great candidate with Jayden Reed out. Although Doubs only earned 2 targets last week, he was on the field for 58 of Green Bay’s 61 plays. With a more favorable matchup this week, I think Doubs will get some more looks from Jordan Love and should take advantage of them.
Pick: Romeo Doubs over 49.5 receiving yards (+124 on DraftKings)
Vikings vs. Steelers pick
The first European game of the 2025 NFL season will be played on Sunday morning between the Vikings and Steelers. Minnesota has a backup quarterback with JJ McCarthy on the shelf. Outside of the fourth quarter against Chicago and last week against Cincinnati, Minnesota’s offense has struggled. The Vikings offense ranks 28th in EPA-per-play this season.
That brings me to the Steelers, who have somehow managed a remarkable feat. Despite being tied for the league lead in turnover margin (+5), the Steelers have a negative point differential. And it’s not as if they’re not converting on their takeaways — they’re averaging 4 points per takeaway, which is a full point above league average. Pittsburgh’s offensive production has been quite poor even with averaging almost 3 takeaways per game. At some point, the turnover luck is going to dry up but the offensive struggles are likely to remain. I like playing an alt total in this spot.
Pick: Alternate total under 37.5 (+136 on FanDuel)
Bengals vs. Broncos pick
This seems like a bad matchup for Cincinnati on Monday Night Football. The Broncos lead the NFL with a 37% pressure rate entering Week 4. The league average is only a shade above 21%, so that’s a pretty significant gap. Here’s Jake Browning against pressure: 10-of-23 for 96 yards, 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. If you want a larger sample size, in 2023 Browning faced pressure on 102 drop backs. He averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and had a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.5%, per Pro Football Focus.
The Bengals haven’t been able to run the ball at all and Denver arguably has a top-10 rush defense in the NFL so far this season, so I’m not sure that’s going to change. I think we’re going to see Browning throw the ball a lot in this game and get pretty middling results. Denver is favored by 7.5 here, but I think this is a spot to play an alternate spread.
Pick: Broncos -12.5 (+157 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
