It’s finally time for Super Bowl Sunday.
Numerous sports betting apps have hundreds of props for you to evaluate before kickoff on Sunday evening. Let’s break down 5 that are worth considering.
Fun Super Bowl prop bets
It’s time to dive in:
Drake Maye longest completion under 33.5 yards
There are some market dynamics that point to the under here. Given the parameters of New England’s team total (around 21), history says 34+ yard completions happen on a little over 2% of pass attempts. Sharper books have Maye projected for about 30.5 pass attempts, which implies Maye has about a 51% chance to not throw a 34+ yard pass. If you trust that math, this is roughly a break-even bet, but I think the play makes sense once you factor in context for both teams.
There’s also this: Seattle’s defense ranked third in the NFL this season in terms of preventing passing plays of this length, only allowing 8 passes of 34+ yards out of 600 opportunities. That’s a rate of 1.33%, which indicates the 2% number referenced earlier may even be a little high. If Seattle suppresses long plays to that level, this becomes solidly +EV.
Maye himself had a 34+ yard completion rate of 2.85%, which is impressive on the surface. But 9 of his 14 such completions came against the Dolphins, Bucs, Giants and Browns. Seattle has an elite defense (No. 1 in EPA-per-dropback allowed since Week 8) and will be much tougher to beat for a long completion.
Pick: Drake Maye longest completion under 33.5 yards (-110 on BetMGM)
Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass
I like the price on this prop quite a bit. According to Radar360, only 24.4% of all NFL playoff games over the past 15 years have featured 3 passers in the game. However, if you isolate Super Bowls, the rate of 3 or more players to attempt a pass skyrockets to almost 43%. Sometimes it’s a trick play, but a couple of these games have featured backup quarterbacks due to blowouts (Super Bowls LIX and XLVIII), so there’s multiple ways to get home.
Both of these teams have some sort of history with non-quarterbacks throwing passes. For Seattle, Cooper Kupp attempted a pass earlier this season and he has 5 pass attempts in his career. New England didn’t have a non-QB throw a pass this season, but Mike Vrabel frequently had skill players (and punters) throwing passes during his time with the Titans. Non-QBs threw 19 passes over Vrabel’s 6 seasons with Tennessee. The sample size isn’t big enough to be statistically-significant (although it’s well over double the average for other NFL franchises over the same span), but I do think it’s worth noting with this prop when considering the likelihood that a trick play could be called.
Pick: Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass (+160 on DraftKings)
Kenneth Walker rushing yardage under in the first half
Let’s transition into talking about Seattle’s running back situation. With Zach Charbonnet out, Kenneth Walker should get the lion’s share of the rushing reps in this game. Sharp books have Walker’s projected carries pegged at 18.5, which is well above his season average of 13.
I think there’s a good chance his attempts prop is too high for most game states. Unless this turns into a Seattle blowout, I think we’re going to see a decent amount of George Holani this week. In the NFC Championship Game last week, Walker was on the field for 23 out of 26 rushing snaps. Conversely, on passing snaps, Holani out-snapped Walker 20 to 18. In hindsight, Seattle was basically tipping pitches against the Rams based on which running back was on the field.
Seattle won’t get away with drastic splits like that against New England’s defense, and I think the Seahawks know that. If they’re predictable to that degree, the Patriots will be able to consistently get off the field with ease. One potential fix is having Holani on the field for more rushing downs, particularly early in the game.
If you believe in that logic, there are a few ways to attack this angle. The gnarliest option is probably taking Holani over 2.5 rush attempts at -145 on BetMGM. If you think Seattle solves the “tipping pitches” problem by playing Walker on passing downs too, you could take the over on his receptions prop. But my preferred angle for this is Walker under 32.5 rushing yards in the first half. I expect Holani will be involved on rushing downs early on and by taking the first half line, I’m removing the possibility of a Seattle blowout that significantly increases Walker’s rushing volume.
Pick: Kenneth Walker under 32.5 rushing yards in the first half (-110 on BetMGM)
Stefon Diggs over 44.5 receiving yards
Betting on the “over” receiving yards for the No. 1 receiver on a team in the Super Bowl is probably not a +EV play very often. But I think Diggs’ upside in this game is actually being undersold by the market. New England’s other top receivers, Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins, are both decent downfield threats, but neither have Diggs’ ability to attack space in shallow areas. Diggs led the Patriots in receiving yards this season despite having an average depth of target of just 8.3 yards, per PFF. He’s excellent at attacking soft spots in zone coverage, which will be important against a zone-dominant Seattle secondary. Per Sharp Football Analysis, Seattle had the third-highest zone rate in the NFL this season at over 80%.
Per Radar360, Diggs was highly-efficient against zone coverage this season. He caught 59 of 67 targets against zone for an 88% catch rate. He also averaged almost 11.5 yards per catch on those attempts. Given that efficiency, he may only need 4 receptions to clear this yardage prop. I think 5 or 6 catches would be very reasonable outcomes, though, given the matchup with Seattle’s secondary. It also seems likely that New England will have some scripted short throws for this game given its issues with pass blocking in recent weeks.
Pick: Stefon Diggs over 44.5 receiving yards (-115 on Caesars)
Sam Darnold to throw 2+ interceptions
This is more of a dart throw based on the price, but I do think it could be +EV. Sam Darnold had had an excellent season overall, but he has been quite turnover-prone at times. He has 14 interceptions this year and a turnover-worth play rate north of 3%, per PFF. That TWP rate goes up to 4.6% against pressure. Turnover-worthy plays don’t always convert to interceptions, but it does meaningfully increase the odds. Since Week 12, the Patriots rank No. 3 in the NFL with a pressure rate of nearly 44%.
Darnold has thrown 2+ interceptions in 3 games this season. Twice against the Rams and once against the Steelers in Week 2. Like New England, the Rams have a very high pressure-rate defense and a strong secondary (both teams are top-6 in EPA allowed per drop-back). The Steelers also still had TJ Watt back in Week 2 and generated pressure on 40% of Darnold’s drop-backs in that game (well above Darnold’s season average). This is not a prop that’s particularly likely to hit, but I think there’s a clear pattern here and the price makes it worth a sprinkle.
Pick: Sam Darnold to throw 2+ interceptions (+326 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
