Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL season.
This piece will attempt to point out some edges and trends that may not be reflected in the betting markets for an NFL Sunday. A note about the “bold” claim made in the headline above — that means all picks below will be priced at +100 or higher. As always, we’ll let you know which of the best sports betting apps has the best price for the given market.
NFL picks this week
Let’s dive in:
Cowboys vs. Bears prediction
Chicago’s secondary is a mess at the moment — specifically its CB room. The Bears have been torched in their first two games to start the season. Now, to make matters worse, their top cornerback in Jaylon Johnson is on IR after suffering an injury midway through Week 2 against the Lions. Jaylon Jones and Kyler Gordon are expected to miss this game as well. That’s not good news going into a matchup against the Cowboys, who might have one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
I want to focus on the Pickens matchup for this pick. I think he’s likely to draw the Tyrique Stevenson matchup given Chicago’s injury woes at cornerback. Stevenson has been dreadful to start the year. Per PFF, he’s been targeted 8 times and has allowed 7 catches for 124 yards and 1 touchdown. He wasn’t good last year, either — he was Chicago’s lowest-graded cornerback by coverage grade according to PFF. Even if it’s Nahshon Wright who draws the Pickens matchup, I think that’s an area where he can succeed as well. Pickens earned 9 targets last week against the Giants and I think we could see a similar output this week in an advantageous matchup for Pickens and the Cowboys.
Pick: George Pickens over 4.5 receptions (+158 on FanDuel)
Packers vs. Browns prediction
Jayden Reed suffered an injury in Week 2, so Green Bay is going to be looking for more production out of its wide receiver room for the foreseeable future. Dontayvion Wicks is the most likely candidate to benefit from Reed’s absence. Wicks has earned 8 targets out of the slot this year (Reed has 5, second-most on the team). He should see an uptick in attention from Jordan Love this week and moving forward.
I also like this matchup against Cleveland’s defense. The Browns have been deploying Myles Harden as their slot cornerback and he’s not off to a great start. He’s been targeted 6 times in 30 slot coverage snaps and has conceded 4 catches for 55 yards and 1 touchdown. I think this is a matchup that’s ripe for Green Bay to exploit throughout the game on Sunday.
Pick: Dontayvion Wicks over 3.5 receptions (+125 on BetMGM)
Colts vs. Titans prediction
I almost can’t even believe I’m making this case, but I think there’s value on a kicker this week. That kicker, of course, being Indianapolis Colts hero Spencer Shrader. The journeyman kicker is 9-for-9 on field goals this season, including a game-winner on an untimed down to upset the Denver Broncos last week.
The Colts offense has been one of the league’s biggest surprises through 2 weeks. They haven’t punted yet and they’re averaging 6.5 yards per play, which is second only to Baltimore. If you condense the sample down to plays run from the the 1 yard line to the opponents’ 30-yard line, the Colts are averaging over 8 yards per play — by far the most in the NFL. But as you might expect, Indy hasn’t been good when it gets anywhere near the red zone — hence the 9 field goal attempts for Shrader so far this season. The Colts have scored touchdowns on just 5 of their 12 red zone attempts. In the red zone, Indy averages just 1.82 yards per play.
It’s extremely possible we see some positive regression for Indy’s red zone offense and Shrader doesn’t get 3 or 4 or 5 field goal attempts this week. I’ll own that. But what if this is just what Indy’s offense is with Daniel Jones? The Duke product has always been worse than you’d expect in the red zone. Of the 29 quarterbacks to throw 1,500 passes since Jones entered the league in 2019, he ranks 27th in red zone touchdown drive rate. For his career, Jones’ teams only score touchdowns on about 50% of red zone trips. That’s not much better than what the Colts have been in 2024. Indy is also facing a Titans defense that has looked rough this season, so I think it will be fine between the 20’s again. That sounds like a recipe for the Colts to make 3 field goals in this game.
Pick: Spencer Shrader over 2.5 made field goals (+212 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
