Thursday Night Football this week features a NFC East matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants.
The Eagles are reeling after blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead at home vs. Denver this past weekend. It’ll be a quick turnaround for them as they go on the road to face a Giants team that lost to the New Orleans Saints in Week 5.
Eagles vs. Giants betting odds
Here’s a look at the betting odds for this game along with the best price from a variety of the top sports betting apps:
Here’s what you should know about both teams before placing a bet on this game:
Philadelphia Eagles news
- The Eagles are 4-1 this season but are coming off of a frustrating loss to Denver last week. Philadelphia led the Broncos 17-3 in the fourth quarter but lost the game at home in regulation.
- Philly has put up good offensive numbers overall this year, but it has been prone to short, ineffective drives. The Eagles have gone 3-and-out on 35.8% of their offensive drives this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
- Jalen Hurts’ rushing volume is down a bit. He’s averaging 8.6 rushes per game, which is his lowest mark since he became a full-time starter in 2021. His efficiency (4.2 yards per carry, 60.5% success rate) is roughly in line with career averages.Â
- Saquon Barkley’s efficiency is way down compared to his MVP-level numbers from a year ago. He’s averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and just over 53 rushing yards per game.
- DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown both have 30+ targets this season. However, Smith has been the more reliable option. He has a catch rate north of 83% while Brown’s catch rate is just 53%. Smith and Brown have similar average depth of targets, per PFF. Their respective catch rates were much closer to each other last season, suggesting Brown may be due for some positive regression. Brown has never had a catch rate below 60% for a full season in his career.
- Defensively, the Eagles are 10th in the NFL in EPA-per-play allowed. They’re in the top half of the league in both EPA-per-rush and EPA-per-dropback allowed.
New York Giants news
- The Giants are 1-4 this season, with their lone win of the year coming against the Chargers at home a couple of weeks ago.Â
- New York has played 2 games with Jaxson Dart as its starting quarterback. Dart led the Giants to a win in Week 4 but struggled in a Week 5 loss against the Saints.
- Overall this season, the Giants rank 28th in EPA-per-play on offense. They are 13th in rushing success rate, which is the strength of their profile.
- The Giants will be without star receiver Malik Nabers for the rest of the season due to injury.
- It seems tight end Theo Johnson and receiver Darius Slayton are the biggest beneficiaries in terms of their roles in this offense without Nabers. However, Slayton is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury as well.Â
- Johnson has had a serious uptick in production over the last couple of weeks. Since Nabers went out, Johnson has registered a 27% target share, per Sumer Sports.
- Defensively, the Giants are one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. They rank 30th out of 32 teams in rush defense EPA.
- New York ranks 18th in EPA per drop back, but has faced a very strong group of opposing quarterbacks this year. Opponents include Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
Eagles vs. Giants predictions
Theo Johnson looks like he’s going to be a staple in this Giants passing attack with Jaxson Dart under center. The Giants’ injury crisis at wide receiver is also likely to open up a few more opportunities for Johnson in the passing game. He has 12 targets over the last 2 weeks and roughly a 30% target share since Nabers suffered his season-ending injury. With Dart likely to throw upwards of 30 passes in this game, I think Johnson’s receptions prop is priced too low. I prefer targeting his receptions number over his yardage total because he’s only averaging 6.6 yards per catch this season and has been very inefficient from a yardage standpoint (0.67 yards per route run). I’m taking Johnson over 4.5 receptions at plus odds because I think there’s a chance he is a focal point of New York’s attack this week and could soar over this number. However, there are some juiced-up 3.5 reception props available at books like BetMGM.
Pick: Theo Johnson over 4.5 receptions (+129 at Underdog Sportsbook)
There were reports last week that AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are unhappy with their roles in the Philadelphia offense. Maybe that’s not true. But I can’t help but wonder whether or not that reported discontent impacted Philly’s game plan against Denver. Jalen Hurts registered 45 drop-backs against the Broncos — his most in a single game since Week 3 of the 2024 season. His average drop-backs per game over that same span is 30.45. It’s also worth noting Philly had this game plan the Broncos, who own the NFL’s No. 1 EPA-per-drop-back defense.Â
Now looking to Thursday night on the heels of a loss to Denver, I think the Eagles will respond to this loss by running the ball a lot more often. They have big matchup advantage over the Giants’ rushing defense and they desperately need to get Saquon Barkley going after his slow start to the season. Barkley does not have a single carry of 20+ yards this season. I think that changes this week against a Giants defense that gives up explosive running plays at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
Pick: Saquon Barkley longest rush over 17.5 yards (-112 on FanDuel)
Jalen Hurts anytime TD odds
If you’re curious about the former Oklahoma and Alabama star, here are the anytime TD odds for Hurts and most other key players in this game:
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
