It’s time for Week 6 of the NFL season.
As always, we’ll explore some plus-money NFL picks in this piece. Last week, our NFL bold predictions went 2-1 and came out +1.17 units overall. Since the start of Week 3, picks in this story are up 2.16 units.
NFL picks Week 6
Here are 3 bold predictions for this week in the NFL:
Can the Colts keep scoring at a historic pace?
Fading the Colts offense is perhaps not the wisest choice, but I think there’s a case for doing so here. Indianapolis is currently averaging 3.39 points per drive. That would be by far the most this century if the Colts are able to keep up this pace all season long. Better than any team led by Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or anyone else.
To me, that doesn’t seem exceptionally sustainable. The Colts don’t have a dominant passing offense with Daniel Jones under center. They’ve just rarely turned the ball over (0.6 per game), have converted field goals at a high level (13 of 14) and don’t take sacks (2.6% sack rate). They’ll now be facing an Arizona defense that’s one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL and will be highly-motivated after losing its last 3 games by a combined 5 points. It’s also worth noting that Indy’s kicker, Spencer Shrader, suffered a season-ending injury last week. Michael Badgley is expected to fill in. In his most recent season back in 2023, Badgley went 4-for-4 on field goals but missed 2 extra points.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts alt team total under 24.5 (+145 on DraftKings)
Backing Jared Goff in Kansas City
Jared Goff is famously better in a dome than outdoors, but it’s going to be unseasonably hot for Kansas City on Sunday in Arrowhead. Temperatures look like they could be in the mid-80s. Goff should have no problem throwing in those conditions, particularly against a Chiefs defense that ranks 23rd in EPA-per-play. Kansas City has arguably the worst rushing defense in the NFL outside of a banged-up Baltimore unit. The Lions, of course, have an elite rushing offense led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. I like Detroit to win this game outright.
Pick: Detroit Lions money line (+115 on bet365)
Trevor Lawrence to throw 2+ interceptions
I think Jacksonville has been running a little hot so far this season. Despite the Jags’ 4-1 record, Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming. He’s been especially disappointing when faced with pressure — he has a 5% turnover-worthy play rate when under pressure, per PFF. That’s notable as the Seahawks get pressure at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL entering Week 6. Lawrence also has much higher-than-average INT rates against Cover 1, Cover 3 and Cover 4 this season, per Sumer Sports. Those schemes make up 3 of Seattle’s 4 most common defensive coverages (about 60% of all defensive plays, per Sumer Sports).
Pick: Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 interceptions (+244 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
