Welcome to Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season.
We’re back with a trio of bold predictions for this weekend’s slate. As always, each pick below will be priced at +100 or higher.
Last week, we went 2-1 for a net profit of about 1.24 units.
Expert NFL Week 5 betting picks and predictions with odds and analysis
Let’s dive in:
Broncos vs. Eagles prediction: Denver to pull off the Week 5 upset (+170)
I like Denver to win outright this week. The Eagles have been much worse than their 4-0 record may indicate this season. The offense is prone to sputtering — they’ve gone 3-and-out on 34% of their drives this season, which is the third-worst mark in the NFL. The Eagles scored 31 points last week (7 came on a special teams TD) while averaging just 3.4 yards per play. It’s hard to be much luckier than that. They’ll be facing a Denver defense that’s top-5 in the league in EPA-per-play allowed. Philly’s defense also has a major weakness in that it’s 30th in the league in rush defense success rate.
Pick: Broncos +170 (DraftKings)
Vikings vs. Browns player prop: Jalen Nailor over 1.5 receptions (+115)
The Browns have an elite defensive line and the Vikings haven’t been able to block anyone so far this season. That’s an interesting combination given that Minnesota is favored by about 4.5 points at most shops for this London game (yes, Cleveland’s offense really is that bad). I think the way to attack this is to look at Minnesota receivers who are most clearly in position to take advantage of short passes — Carson Wentz won’t have much time to throw the ball with former Texas A&M star Myles Garrett bearing down on him. Per PFF, Jalen Nailor is second on the team in both targets and receptions on passes thrown within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage. Nailor and Adam Thielen have been splitting slot reps this season, but Nailor out-snapped Thielen 36-12 last week.
Pick: Jalen Nailor over 1.5 receptions (+115 on BetMGM)
Seahawks vs. Buccaneers first quarter bet: Seattle -0.5 points (+120)
Seattle enters Week 5 with the NFL’s best first-quarter point differential to-date: +21. No other team is closer than +14. Now, a lot of that is due to Seattle beating the Saints by 21 in the opening stanza a few weeks ago. But the Seahawks have won the first quarter outright in 3 of their 4 games to start the year. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been a ridiculously-slow starter. The Bucs are -21 in the first quarter through 4 games. They haven’t won the first quarter in any of their games so far (although they did play the Jets to a draw a couple weeks ago). Tampa’s style has been to rely on Baker Mayfield’s heroics late in the game in order to get results. I think this is a trend we’ll see continue this week.
Pick: Seahawks -0.5 points in the first quarter (+120 on bet365)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
