It’s almost time for the biggest sporting event of the year, when stars shine and unlikely heroes emerge to make game-winning plays that put their name in history forever.
Super Bowl LX will be played on Sunday between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots, a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX when the Patriots won 28-24.
That game featured one of the most infamous play calls in Super Bowl history, when, from the Patriots’ 1-yard line, Seattle dropped back to pass rather than handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch and cornerback Malcolm Butler jumped a slant route to secure an interception.
Even though Butler came up with the game-changing play — one of the most influential individual plays in Super Bowl history — it was Patriots quarterback Tom Brady who took home Super Bowl MVP honors.
But that’s standard operating procedure for MVP voters. A quarterback has been named Super Bowl MVP in 3 straight years and in 14 of the last 19 years overall. It’s a quarterback award unless someone somewhere else just blows voters’ socks off.
So, who can do exactly that?
Super Bowl 60 MVP odds, long-shot predictions
odds via BetMGM
Betting on a Super Bowl MVP longshot requires several acknowledgements.
First, it’s unlikely a non-quarterback wins the award and it’s even less likely a running back does it. Since Ray Lewis won the MVP award in Super Bowl XXXV at the turn of the century, non-QBs have claimed the honor in just 8 of the 24 games. A defensive back won in 2002 and wideouts went back-to-back in 2004 and 2005. Quarterbacks have won 14 of 19 since then.
Denver tailback Terrell Davis was the last running back to win the award in 1997. Only 5 defensive players have won the award since 1985.
Second acknowledgement: The MVP goes to the winning side, so the spread should be considered. Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite, per BetMGM. If the number closes there, it’ll tie the mark for the largest spread in a Super Bowl in the last decade.
Now, with all that in mind, here are 3 value bets to make on the Super Bowl 60 MVP.
Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+500)
Seattle’s quarterback is the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP for a reason, just like the non-QB with the shortest odds is Seattle’s leading receiver.
Look at the receivers who have taken home the honor during the last 20 years. Cooper Kupp had 92 yards and 2 scores in a 23-20 win. Julian Edelman had 141 yards in a 10-3 win. Santonio Holmes had 131 yards and a score in a 27-23 win. Hines Ward had 123 yards and a score in a 21-10 win.
Smith-Njigba was held in check during the Divisional win over San Francisco, but with Seattle running away with the game early, he didn’t need to do much. In the NFC Championship win over the Rams, JSN brought in 10 of his 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. That’s MVP-worthy.
In a low-scoring game, the Seahawks’ leading receiver is an obvious answer to the question, “Who makes a game-winning play?” He led the NFL in the regular season with 1,793 yards and tied for sixth with 10 touchdowns.
Seattle WR Cooper Kupp (+6600)
Cooper Kupp already has a Super Bowl MVP in his trophy case. In the twilight of his career, what a story it would be to see him add another. Kupp is a deep longshot, but he has a specific path to the award.
In tight games with literally everything on the line, scared money don’t make none. Fortune favors the bold. Insert whatever cliché you want to suggest an offensive coordinator should get a little creative. Three players threw a pass in the regular season for Seattle — Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, and Kupp.
Now, his one pass was intercepted, but that might actually be a blessing in disguise for offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak if he wants to go back to that package. Kupp is also as reliable as they get, a 9-year NFL vet with Super Bowl experience and a career 70.1% catch rate.
He’s coming off a game with just 36 receiving yards, but he also has a 20.8% target share in 2 postseason games thus far. Compare that with Rashid Shaheed, who has much shorter odds but just 5 total targets in 2 games.
New England WR Stefon Diggs (+5000)
And if the Patriots win another Super Bowl? Who brings home the MVP if not quarterback Drake Maye? Stefon Diggs at +5000 is incredible value. If we assume a running back is unlikely to win the award, Diggs having the third-shortest odds on his team is already a win. Though the veteran receiver has just 73 yards in 2 playoff games, he’s the team’s leading receiver in terms of target share.
Can Diggs produce a 100ish-yard game in a win? Absolutely, he can. And this might be the last great opportunity for Diggs, who is in his 11th season in the league, to lift a Lombardi Trophy. A signature game from a player who has produced some huge postseason performances over the course of his career is well within the cards.
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Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
