The more things change, the more they stay the same. For the first time since the 2018 season, but for the 11th time this century, a Super Bowl will be played featuring at least one of the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle doesn’t have a Legion of Boom defense any longer, or Pete Carroll roaming the sideline, but it does have the NFL’s best scoring differential. New England doesn’t have Tom Brady or Bill Belichick, but it might have their next-gen regens in Drake Maye, who led the NFL in QBR during the regular season, and Mike Vrabel.
Sunday’s game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Until then, here’s everything you need to know about the game.
Super Bowl 60 odds, predictions
odds via BetMGM
5 things to know about the Seahawks
- Darnold is that dude: Over the 2 previous seasons, the Los Angeles Rams had produced 8 takeaways and 19 sacks against Sam Darnold. In the NFC Championship Game, Seattle’s quarterback threw for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns without a turnover. After the game, coach Mike Macdonald said Darnold “just shut a lot of people up” with his play. It was exactly the game Darnold needed leading into a Super Bowl, one that suggested this well-traveled passer has what it takes to lead a champion. Darnold has the second-best QBR of any quarterback to play this postseason. His 8.5 yards-per-pass average in the regular season was second only to Drake Maye. He was top-10 in both touchdown passes and yards.
- JSN is a PTP: To borrow a famous phrase from ESPN’s Dick Vitale, Seattle’s star receiver is a primetime player to the highest order. In the win over the Rams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 of his 12 targets for 153 yards with a touchdown. It was his 10th game this season with at least 100 receiving yards and his 10th with a score. Smith-Njigba had 96 yards and a score in the Seahawks’ regular-season overtime win over the Rams. He had 123 yards and a score in a MNF win over Houston last October. He has touchdowns in both postseason games so far. Smith-Njigba led the NFL in regular-season receiving and tied for the most 20-yard receptions. His 79 first downs produced ranked second. Among players with at least 100 targets, his 14.9 yards-per-catch average is tied for the third-best. And, in that same pool of players, his 3.57 yards-per-route average is tied for the best. He isn’t just the NFL’s most prolific receiver; he’s the NFL’s most efficient, a deadly combo.
- Third-down tragedies: Seattle had the NFL’s best third-down defense during the regular season. Opponents converted only 32.1% of their third-down attempts against the Seahawks defense despite not facing much pressure. Seattle blitzed on third down just 27.6% of the time, the 20th-highest mark in the league. This is not a defense that paces the NFL in generating 3-and-outs (20.9% rate, 12th) or takeaways (25, sixth) or TFLs (89, ninth). The unit just beats the snot out of teams on third down.
- Making offenses earn it: During the regular season, Seattle gave up the fewest points per drive to opposing offenses of any team. They keep teams off-balance while not bringing much pressure. Seattle is 24th in the NFL in first-down blitz rate, per Radar360, and 20th in third-down blitz rate. As mentioned above, they aren’t creating an overwhelming amount of 3-and-outs either. They just make offenses grind out possessions and wait for mistakes. In the regular season, they allowed 4.2 big plays per game on average. Only Denver gave up fewer.
- Missed tackles: While Seattle’s defense gets the top billing in the game, the unit is prone to whiffing. Seattle’s 9.5% missed tackle rate ranks 22nd in the NFL. That showed up in the NFC Championship Game, when the defense missed 9 tackles and gave up 13 big plays.
5 things to know about the Patriots
- Only a shoulder is slowing Drake Maye: In the regular season, the second-year man from North Carolina was marvelous. He ranked fourth in passing (4,394 yards), third in touchdowns (31), and first in QBR (77.1). He had 6 games with at least 200 yards passing, multiple touchdowns, and no interceptions. Maye injured his right shoulder (throwing arm) during the AFC Championship Game but went through a normal practice on Monday and told reporters he’d be “just fine.”
- Pressure problems: Only 8 teams gave up more sacks during the regular season than the Patriots (48). And Maye has been sacked 5 times each in New England’s 3 playoff games so far. Including postseason games, Maye has completed 74.6% of his passes with a 2.2% turnover-worthy play rate when kept clean. His passer grade from PFF (91.1) is among the best in the NFL. But, when pressured, Maye’s completion rate plummets to 57.7%, his turnover-worthy play rate jumps to 4.3%, and his passer grade falls to 53.5.
- Explosives!: Only 3 NFL offenses averaged more big plays per game than New England during the regular season. And only the Rams produced more 20-yard pass plays than New England. During the regular season, the Patriots hit on 35 pass plays of at least 20 air yards, which ranked second in the NFL. The ground game is what it is; the Pats ranked 13th in the regular season in rushing efficiency at 4.4 yards per carry. But running on this Seattle defense is a difficult task. Fortunately for New England fans, the Patriot offense has shown all year it can bite off chunks at a time when it goes to the air.
- Grounded in the postseason: Unfortunately for New England fans, that high-flying offense they were accustomed to in the regular season — the one that ranked fourth in points per drive — has been bottled up in 3 postseason games. New England has averaged 1.24 points per drive in the playoffs, down from the 2.59 it averaged in the regular season. Context matters, right? New England’s 3 postseason opponents — Los Angeles, Houston, and Denver — ranked eighth, second, and third (respectively) in points per drive allowed during the regular season. The AFC Championship Game win over Denver also featured less-than-ideal weather. Nonetheless, New England hasn’t gotten going. It averaged 3.9 yards per play against Houston and then 3.2 against Denver. Maye has completed under 60% of his throws in all 3 games, has 2 interceptions, 5 turnover-worthy plays, and a 6.9 yards-per-pass clip.
- DT Dominance: The pass-rushing duo on the interior of the New England line is one of the best in the NFL. Christian Barmore, a former Alabama standout, and Milton Williams have combined to produce 8.5 sacks, 111 quarterback pressures, and 37 stops. Williams was on injured reserve throughout the back half of the regular season. Over that same time, New England upped its blitz rate to great effect. According to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, the Pats have blitzed opposing offenses on 35.1% of snaps since Week 9, a figure that ranks as the second-highest in the league. That extra pressure hasn’t led to sacks — check Barmore and Williams’s numbers — but it has impacted opposing throw games. Denver’s Jarrett Stidham completed 5 of his 12 passes for 28 yards with a pick against extra pressure in the AFC title game. CJ Stroud went 8-for-23 for 89 yards with 2 picks in the divisional round. Justin Herbert went 7-for-16 for 69 yards in the Wild Card round. Herbert and Stroud were blitzed on more than 45% of their dropbacks. The Pats’ interior duo has 25 combined pressures in 3 postseason games. Cory Durden also has 13 of his 30 pressures in 3 postseason games. New England’s line is formidable.
2 key matchups that will define the Super Bowl
- Drake Maye’s legs vs. Seattle’s front 4: As stated above, New England’s offense was one of the most explosive in the league during the regular season. When the Pats went to the air to hunt deep shots, Maye found them with success while staying within the natural flow of the pass game. In the Super Bowl, New England’s proclivity for explosive play generation and Seattle’s aversion to giving up big plays present a strength-on-strength matchup. Seattle is able to put pressure on teams without sending extra help, which leaves the secondary in good spots to keep everyone in front of them. What happens if Maye starts breaking contain and scrambling? In the ESPN piece linked above, Barnwell noted that Maye compiled a league-leading 77 explosive pass completions on plays where the ball came out of his hands between 2.5 and 5 seconds post-snap. Unless he has pressure in his face the moment the ball is snapped, Maye will have opportunities to look downfield before tucking and running. In the postseason, he has scrambled 9 times for 125 yards, with 6 first downs and 5 missed tackles forced. Designed quarterback runs aren’t likely to be much of a factor, but keep an eye on Maye’s ability to scramble when a play breaks down.
- Christian Gonzalez vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The Seahawks’ star receiver leads all qualified pass-catchers this year in PFF receiving grade (92.3) and yards per route run (4.16) when faced with man coverage. As a result, Seattle has faced man coverage at one of the lowest rates of any team in the NFL. Prior to this season, New England deployed corner Christian Gonzalez in man more often than not. When the Pats signed Carlton Davis III, it looked like they’d formed a dynamic duo of stoppers on the outside that would let them live in man. While they have played man coverage at a rate that is slightly above league average, they’re still outside the top 10 in terms of usage. Gonzalez has also followed some receivers around the formation this year, but for the most part he has lived on one side of the formation. After being used primarily in the slot through his first 2 seasons in the league, Smith-Njigba has ventured all over the field in Year 3. What will the Patriots decide to do here? Let Gonzalez — one of the league’s best corners — shadow JSN? Set up in split-safety looks and ask Seattle to nickel and dime the ball down the field? The latter might work for a spell, but New England’s red-zone defense is a major weakness. Does New England do what it did in the AFC title game, when it played more in man than it had all season, and ask its top corners to consistently win 1-on-1s? What New England throws at JSN will influence everything else that Seattle does when it has the football.
Super Bowl LX Best Bet
Identities have flipped in the postseason for both teams. New England’s brilliant offense has been bottled up, but the defense has dominated all 3 matchups. Seattle’s Sam Darnold just played the game of his life, and the feared defense is coming off a performance against Los Angeles where it was repeatedly gashed for chunks at a time. I’m smashing the under on the first-half total (22.5 points, via BetMGM). From Seattle’s perspective, the cautious approach is the right approach early on. Don’t give New England fuel for an idling offense by turning the football over. From New England’s perspective, a lower-scoring affair that gives Maye a chance to clinch a result with just 1 or 2 explosives is the cleanest path to a victory. The first half of the game could be over in a blink.
Bet first-half total under 22.5 points (-110 via BetMGM)
Super Bowl LX Prediction
I don’t know if New England can protect Maye with enough consistency to play the way it wants to play. Additionally, I don’t know if New England can run the ball much against Seattle’s defense. Given the postseason form of these 4 units, I don’t really think either offense has a particularly clean game. It feels far more likely we get a tight ball game where a single explosive or a timely takeaway tips the balance. Seattle has the best offensive playmaker (Smith-Njigba) and the more reliable ground game. Seattle also has a proven defense. I think both of those things ultimately lead to a Seattle victory, but, as I stated above, a tighter game keeps New England hanging around. Underdogs are on a 5-game ATS win streak in the Super Bowl. Against a larger-than-normal spread, I’ll ride with that trend to continue.
Pick: New England +4.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
