Monday Down South: Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide keep showing us who they are. It’s time to believe them
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Takeaways, trends, and technicalities from Week 1 in the SEC.
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DeBoer on the Floor
One of the cardinal rules in this business this time of year: Don’t overreact to the first game. It’s 1 game. It’s a long year. Remember all the other times you’ve overreacted over the years, and how those takes aged like a half-eaten avocado. Look at the calendar. Take a breath. Sleep on it.
And then, after you’ve done all that, revisit Alabama’s torpid, 31-17 loss at Florida State with fresh eyes, and you’ll see exactly the same thing you saw the first time: A team in ongoing, undeniable decline.
Because, let’s be real here, the collective reaction to watching Bama getting bullied, again, by yet another unranked, double-digit underdog with no juice whatsoever prior to kickoff, was not just about 1 game. Bama fans were not gritting their teeth, rending their garments and flipping off cameras over a disappointing nonconference loss, or its implications on the Tide’s Playoff odds in 2025, or for Ty Simpson’s outlook as QB1, or whatever. They were staring reality in the face. Post-Saban, this is just … who they are now under Kalen DeBoer.
It’s a testament to the residual aura of the Bama brand that there was still any shred of plausible deniability left covering what should have already been obvious. Doomed Playoff push notwithstanding, this is who they were last year, too. Dating back to last November, Saturday’s flop in Tallahassee was the Crimson Tide’s 3rd loss to an unranked, double-digit underdog in its past 4 games, unfolding in more or less the same lopsided fashion as the previous Ls against Oklahoma and Michigan. Add on last year’s October lapses at Vanderbilt (a monumental event in SEC history about which nothing more needs to be said) and Tennessee, and they’ve lost 5 of their 6 outside of Tuscaloosa – a trend line now spanning a full offseason, each one arguably a little bit worse than the last.
The anomaly in Year 1 A.N. (After Nick) was not the upsets. The anomaly was the the sense of continuity that linked one era to the next, and allowed the pundits, polls and true believers to imagine that as long as there were still a bunch of blue-chip Saban recruits on one of the sport’s gold-standard rosters, the program remained on the same orbit. One game into Year 2, the haters had it right.
In fact, one of the most sobering things about the flop at FSU was the fact that so much of the flopping could be chalked up directly to the most bold-faced names on the field. QB Ty Simpson, a former 5-star finally earning his first career start in his 4th year in the program, was a mess – indecisive, inaccurate and generally uncomfortable after a scripted touchdown drive to open the game. He finished 23-for-43 passing, 3-for-14 under pressure and 1-for-5 on attempts of 20+ air yards, good for an abysmal ratings in pass efficiency, EPA and Total QBR. The indelible image of the afternoon was of Simpson, under duress, scrambling wildly out of one would-be disaster and into another.
His supporting cast did him no favors. Bama’s massive and massively touted left tackle Kadyn Proctor – a fixture at the top of every “way too early” 2026 mock draft – was a mess, giving up 6 QB pressures and 1 sack to an undistinguished rotation of FSU edge rushers. The most hyped target, sophomore Ryan Williams, was a mess, recording more drops (3 ) than first downs (2) while averaging 3.0 yards per target, per Pro Football Focus. Senior LB Deontae Lawson, making his 27th career start, was victimized for a 64-yard gain in coverage. Including Lawson, PFF rang up the starting linebackers and safeties alone for a dozen missed tackles.
The headliners set the tone for a sloppy, un-Bama-like performance across the board. The ground game, left shorthanded by an injury to starting RB Jamarion Miller, was a nonentity. The front seven, left shorthanded by an injury to mammoth DT Tim Keenan, was pushed around to the tune of 230 rushing yards by an offense that ranked dead last in the ACC in rushing offense in 2024. (That number was nearly triple the ‘Noles’ ’24 average vs. FBS opponents.) Edge defenders repeatedly lost containment. Linebackers got knocked backward by the ball carrier in short yardage. FSU quarterback Tommy Castellanos, a fun-sized retread last seen riding the bench at Boston College, ran so wild that within 24 hours he was selling commemorative t-shirts on his personal website emblazoned with his 10-cent offseason trash talk, now worth $45 a pop.
The thing is, Castellanos was right: The GOAT isn’t coming to save them. (Although he’s never very far away, his constant presence on TV a constant reminder of his absence on the sideline.) And it’s becoming increasingly obvious they might really need to be saved. Saban’s teams famously never biffed it vs. inferior competition, dropping a single game to an unranked opponent in his final 16 years. The new administration has dropped 4 games to unranked opponents in 10 months. And with each loss, the notion of an “un-Bama-like” performance is getting a little harder to sustain. If all you knew about the Crimson Tide was what they’d done in their 14 games to date under DeBoer, a wipeout road loss as a 2-touchdown favorite would probably strike you as a very Bama-like performance, actually. How many times do they have to show us who they are now before we believe them?
Of course, as Bama fans are usually happy to remind you, they’ve been reading some variation on the “Dynasty In Decline?” column following every regular-season loss for the past decade, and keeping most of them on file for future reference. In the era of the expanded Playoff, especially, a nonconference loss can be relegated to a footnote more quickly than ever. There’s always a chance: A 14.6% chance to make the CFP, a 2.2% chance to win the SEC, and a 0.8% chance to win it all, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, which prior to Saturday’s loss gave Alabama the third-best Playoff odds in the country behind only Georgia and Texas. After Saturday’s loss, those odds plummeted to 11th in the SEC.
If you like those odds, you can still bet on the Tide running the SEC gauntlet — including trips to Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn — as long as it remains a mathematical possibility. The sports books will take your money, believe me. The difference now is that, for the first time in a generation, the gauntlet itself suddenly sounds less like an opportunity than a threat. If it can get better, against the odds, it can get a lot worse, too. After all, it’s only Week 1. It’s a long year. Look at the calendar. There’s a looong way to go.
Panning Manning
Arch Manning’s first pass at Ohio State skipped off the turf well short of his intended receiver. His second pass was a minimal completion to a tight end, who was swarmed short of the sticks on third down. His third pass was a scramble-drill dump-off to a running back, who was also stopped short of the sticks on third down. Run that sequence on repeat, mix in a goal-line stand and an interception on one of Manning’s rare ventures downfield, and you’ve seen pretty much all there was to see over the first 3 quarters — the most anticlimactic debut since the Segway.
To Manning’s credit, that wasn’t the end of the story. At the start of the 4th quarter, he was a juiceless 9-for-15 passing for 38 yards and a single first down. His longest gain up to that point was a 15-yard scramble, besting his longest completion by 6 yards. He’d just followed up the failed goal-line series by serving up the aforementioned INT on his final attempt of the third; by the time he got the ball back, Texas trailed 14-0 with zero momentum and time running out. Manning’s 4th-quarter highlight reel salvaged a scrap or two of dignity. After failing utterly to challenge the Buckeyes downfield for the majority of the afternoon, he connected on 3 completions of 25+ yards in comeback mode, including a gotta-have-it, 32-yard touchdown strike on 3rd-and-10 that briefly revived the Longhorns’ fortunes and a beauty of a throw from deep in his own territory that split the cornerback and safety in a Cover 2 look. If nothing else, at least in those moments it was possible to see what scouts who anointed him the No. 1 recruit in his class and a future No. 1 overall saw beyond his last name.
For almost any other redshirt sophomore making his first career road start in Ohio Stadium, checking the “flashes potential” box in a competitive loss against the defending champs would count for something. Not much, maybe. But something.
For Arch? Not a chance. For a player as wildly hyped as Manning, who has been hyped for as long as Manning, the idea of chalking up a rocky debut as QB1 to Normal Sophomore Stuff is almost an insult — not to him, but to a public that was asked to buy him as a fully-formed prospect and literal Heisman frontrunner before he’d even thrown his first touchdown pass against a serious opponent. You (by which I mean “we,” the media hive mind at large) can’t anoint a kid the second coming of his famous uncles and the face of the No. 1 team in the preseason polls and then plead for patience when he comes out looking like just another guy who needs reps the first time he sets foot on a big stage. Real patience means demonstrating restraint before it becomes painfully obvious that he needs it. (Whoops, too late.)
None of which, to be clear, is directed at Arch himself, who never asked to be anointed anything. If anyone is equipped to handle being monitored by the Bust Police at such a fledgling stage of his career, it’s Manning, who has been in the spotlight to some extent since he was in the 9th grade and has handled it without a hint of drama or inflated ego. Texas’ larger goals haven’t changed; barring disaster, a competitive road loss against a fellow contender isn’t likely to affect the Longhorns’ Playoff chances very much, if at all. And if it serves to keep expectations tethered to reality, a bout of skepticism could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
But then, that’s assuming that Manning remains on track to be the guy he was supposed to be sooner to later — preferably sooner. Speaking of which, Texas’ upcoming schedule (San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston, all in Austin) ahead of the conference slate is an opportunity to right before the next big road test at Florida. Flying under the radar for a few weeks while he settles into the job and restores his confidence is exactly what he needs before the glare falls on his again,
LSU: New D Rising?
Quick: Prior to Saturday’s 17-10 win at Clemson, when was the last time you remember LSU’s defense carrying its offense in a really big win?
Now, who was the head coach of the team you have in mind? Was he eating grass or wearing an oddly shaped hat?
It’s been a minute, is what I’m saying. Adjusted for competition, the win in Death Valley East represented LSU’s best performance on defense since … well, let’s see, they just held a top-5 opponent to 10 points on the road. The last time LSU held any ranked opponent to 10 points or less, in any context: The 2019 SEC Championship Game, a 37-10 win over Georgia en route to the national title. That team, of course, was known for its historic offense, not its much-less-accomplished defense. More recently, the Tigers’ only chance of beating anybody worth beating under Brian Kelly has consistently meant outscoring them:
Seventeen points by the offense would not have gotten LSU over on any other game on that list, and in most of them, it wouldn’t have come close. Clemson, it’s worth noting, returned the vast majority of a unit that ranked in the top 20 nationally last year in both total and scoring offense, including senior face-of-the-program quarterback Cade Klubnik and his top 3 receivers. (One of whom, Antonio Williams, exited in the opening quarter Saturday with an apparent hamstring injury and didn’t return.) The Tigers managed 1 sustained scoring drive, a 13-play, 75-yard march in the 2nd quarter; on their other 9possessions, they went 3-and-out 5 times while breaching the red zone just once, on a last-gasp drive that effectively ended the game on a turnover on downs.
Specifically, it ended on about as encouraging a note as possible, with Harold Perkins Jr. — playing in his first game in nearly a full calendar year coming off a torn ACL — effortlessly stalking Klubnik into a 4th-down throwaway on his surgically repaired knee.
As predicted, Perkins spent much of his night dropping into coverage in a hybrid linebacker/nickel role, rarely manning his former station on the edge. Still, on the handful of snaps when he got the green light to chase Klubnik, he flashed glimpses of his younger self, generating 3 QB pressures and a sack as both a blitzer and a spy. He also initiated LSU’s only takeaway, flying untouched around the edge to force Klubnik into a high throw that was subsequently picked off by Mansoor Delane. (About whom more below.) Between Perkins and the Weeks brothers, Whit and West, LSU’s linebackers were inescapable, collectively hounding Klubnik into his worst passer rating (95.6) and QBR score (31.4) since his sophomore year in 2022. If it’s sustainable, the Tigers will enjoy their widest margin for error on offense — that is, any margin for error on offense — in a very long time.
Dude of the Week: LSU CB Mansoor Delane
Delane was hardly an unknown in Baton Rouge, having arrived last winter with 29 career starts at Virginia Tech and plenty of interest from both the portal and the next level. Still, his first game as a Tiger was a revelation: Targeted 8 times by Klubnik, Delane allowed a single reception in coverage while picking off a pass in return and breaking up 2 more. He was in the hip pocket of Clemson receivers from start to finish.
Nationally televised debuts don’t get much more encouraging than that — a welcome development for a secondary that hasn’t had a corner drafted in the first 3 rounds since Derek Stingley Jr. in 2022. A few of the high-profile wideouts still to come on LSU’s schedule: South Carolina’s Nyck Harbor, Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion and Alabama’s Ryan Williams.
Goat of the Week: Alabama OL Kadyn Proctor
Proctor has had his struggles at Bama, particularly as a freshman in 2023, when he allowed an FBS-worst 36 pressures and 12 sacks, per PFF. It’s easy to sympathize with a freshman, even one as hyped as Proctor — that season was difficult enough (on and off the field) that he opted to transfer home to Iowa following Nick Saban’s retirement, before reversing course and returning to Tuscaloosa in the spring. He improved significantly in Year 2, resetting his upward trajectory, and was hailed entering Year 3 as a no-brainer All-American, first-class freak, and projected top-10 pick in 2026.
Instead, he came out against Florida State on Saturday looking sluggish and overmatched by the Seminoles’ speed off the edge in what, in context, must have been the worst outing of his career.
That was 1 of 6 Seminoles pressures at Proctor’s expense, per PFF, including 2 other QB hits — a full-blown regression for a veteran who was supposed to be NFL-ready as a 3rd-year starter. For most left tackles who get drafted where Proctor is (or was) projected to get drafted, giving up 6 pressures with multiple hits should take at least a month, ideally two. No amount of sheer mass or feats of heroic weight-room strength can compensate for that kind of tape on a single afternoon. In any context, it’s untenable. Both his reputation and his job security are on the line if the light doesn’t come on ASAP.
Best Performance In Someone Else’s Highlight: Auburn DE Keldric Faulk
Baylor WR Ashtyn Hawkins is listed at 5-10, 168 pounds. Faulk is listed at 6-6, 285. At one point on Friday night, Hawkins was out the gate on a screen pass with what appeared to be a clear path to the end zone … until Faulk, on his horse from the d-line, tracked him down from behind more than 30 yards downfield.
A wider angle of the play shows Faulk matching Hawkins’ speed for the majority of his pursuit, eventually topping out at 17.6 mph at the moment he leaves his feet to trip up Hawkins just as he was about to pull away. His hustle only postponed the payoff — Baylor finished the drive with a touchdown anyway — but almost certainly made himself some money either way.
“You Don’t See That In the NFL” Play of the Week
Notebook
• One of South Carolina’s top priorities this season is getting extraterrestrial wideout Nyck Harbor more involved coming off a couple of statistically forgettable campaigns in his first 2 years on campus. Consider him involved:
See, that’s what they’ve been waiting for. The game-clinching bomb against Virginia Tech was just the 5th of Harbor’s career to date, and exceeded his previous long gain by 20 yards.
•. Auburn’s 38-24 win at Baylor featured the ideal version of QB Jackson Arnold, who had more yards rushing (137) than passing (108) as well as 2 rushing touchdowns. Arnold’s 93.7 QBR score in Waco was easily the best of his career coming off a dismal season at Oklahoma and the 2nd-best among SEC starters in Week 1.
•. The only quarterback who turned in a higher score: Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, who posted an FBS-best 99.1 QBR while accounting for 4 total touchdowns (2 passing, 2 rushing) and giving off unmistakable Stetson Bennett vibes in a 45-7 romp over Marshall. The only thing not to like: Stockton’s resemblance to a younger Kirby Smart is unsettling.
• The silver lining in Alabama’s debacle at Florida State was Ty Simpson’s connection with WR Germie Bernard, who accounted for 146 of Simpson’s 254 passing yards on 8 receptions. Bernard, a former Washington transfer who followed Kalen DeBoer from Seattle, is not as hyped as sophomore phenom Ryan Williams, but he made a much stronger impression in Week 1 in his bid to become a go-to target. For Williams’ part, his best plays weren’t receptions, but a pair of flags drawn for pass interference. Whatever other question marks follow him from one week to the next, he’s still a potential magnet for DPI.
• One of the more impressive debuts by a freshman belonged to Texas CB Graceson Littleton, who was only on the field for 19 snaps at Ohio State but held his own against the likes of Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss in his first college game. Per PFF, Littleton limited Smith and Inniss to a combined 14 yards on 3 catches in coverage while also forcing 2 incompletions (one of which was wiped out by an unrelated penalty). His 83.3 overall PFF grade was 2nd-best among Texas defenders.
• The most notable injury absence of the weekend: Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy, who missed the first of what’s expected to be multiple games as he continues his recovery from an offseason knee injury. He was hardly missed in a 45-26 win over Syracuse. That won’t be the case if McCoy is still on ice when Georgia comes to Knoxville in Week 3.
Moment of Zen
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
