SEC QB Power Rankings, Week 2: Arch Manning’s debut was a bust. Arch Manning is not

Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by analyzing and ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct.

1. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Everyone loves a winner, and Nussmeier’s eye-of-the-beholder outing at Clemson looked a heck of a lot better in a 17-10 win than the exact same performance would have in another deflating opening-night loss. (See, for example, last year’s Week 1 heartbreaker against USC, where he was more productive to much worse reviews.) The real difference in Death Valley East was LSU’s defense, which had its best night in a game that matters in ages. For his part, Nussmeier was well-protected, went 7-for-10 for 95 yards on a pair of second-half touchdown drives, and otherwise didn’t do anything to screw it up. Under the circumstances — top-5 opponent, on the road, the defense finally holding up its end of the bargain — that’ll do.

As a result, Nussmeier shot to the top of the Heisman odds entering Week 2, though, in fairness, that had a lot to do with preseason Heisman betting favorite Arch Manning’s performance at Ohio State. More on that in a moment.

While we’re on the subject of eye test vs. box score, it’s worth pointing out that the latter would have been gotten a significant boost if Nussmeier’s best throw, a 29-yard, over-the-shoulder dime for an apparent go-ahead touchdown in the 3rd quarter, hadn’t been wiped out by the latest entry in America’s favorite ongoing metaphysical saga, Catch or Not a Catch?

Not a catch, somehow. Instead of a TD, the possession ended in a missed field goal. Even by the letter of the law, the verdict on that play ultimately boiled down to a judgment call as to whether WR Barion Brown “completed the act” on his way to the ground. The “rules analyst” on the live broadcast openly disagreed with the ruling overturning the catch, which almost never happens; during the review itself, the conversation never even broached the possibility of overturning the catch, only whether Brown had scored or drifted out of bounds at the half-yard line. Why does the sport continue to do this to itself? All borderline reviews that fail to achieve consensus should automatically default to the doctrine of “too cool to overturn.”
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Last week: 3⬆

2. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

South Carolina’s opening drive against Virginia Tech featured Sellers going 3-for-3 passing for 54 yards and gratuitously trucking a defender at the end of a 15-yard touchdown run, at which point you had to at least consider the possibility that this kid might never be stopped again. The feeling was short-lived: Carolina didn’t find the end zone again on offense until well into the 4th quarter, on a 64-yard heave from Sellers to extraterrestrial wideout Nyck Harbor that instantly erased the 2 uneasy hours between the opening possession and the dagger in a 24-11 win.

That was Sellers’ only attempt of 20+ air yards. Notably, he also had an apparent touchdown pass overturned on review earlier in the game due to Harbor bobbling the ball as he landed sprawling out of bounds, forcing the Gamecocks to settle for a field goal. Frankly, the fact that Harbor was prominently involved at all after being MIA far too often the past 2 years was as encouraging as whether he technically held onto the ball or not.
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Last week: 2⬌

3. John Mateer | Oklahoma

They don’t pay me the big bucks to wax rhapsodic about a routine pantsing of Illinois State. Suffice to say, Mateer’s debut as a Sooner was all the locals could have asked for: 30-for-37 passing, 389 yards, 3 touchdowns, plus a 4th TD rushing. Based on his 2024 output at Washington State, that’s about par for the course against a bantamweight opponent. Next up: A prove-it date against Michigan that will tell us a whole lot more about what to expect the rest of the season.
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Last week: 4⬆

4. DJ Lagway | Florida

Lagway’s night against Long Island U. ended at halftime with Florida leading 38-0 and LIU’s offense having gained a single first down. (The fist play after the Sharks moved the sticks, they coughed up a fumble that the Gators returned for their first touchdown in an eventual 55-0 massacre.) Other than an absurd 1-handed catch by freshman Vernell Brown, there’s no reason to acknowledge any of the above ever happened. Next up: A real opponent, South Florida, coming off an emphatic upset of Boise State.
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Last week: 5⬆

5. Arch Manning | Texas

Manning’s first pass at Ohio State skipped off the turf well short of his intended receiver. His second pass was a minimal completion to a tight end, who was swarmed short of the sticks on third down. His third pass was a scramble-drill dump-off to a running back, who was also stopped short of the sticks on third down. Run that sequence on repeat, mix in a goal-line stand and an interception on one of Manning’s rare ventures downfield, and you’ve seen pretty much all there was to see over the first 3 quarters — the most anticlimactic debut since the Segway.

To Manning’s credit, that wasn’t the end of the story. At the start of the 4th quarter, he was a juiceless 9-for-15 passing for 38 yards and a single first down. His longest gain up to that point was courtesy of his legs, on a 15-yard scramble, besting his longest completion by 6 yards. He’d just followed up the failed goal-line series by serving up the aforementioned INT on his final attempt of the 3rd; by the time he got the ball back, Texas trailed 14-0 with zero momentum and time running out. Manning’s 4th-quarter highlight reel salvaged a scrap or two of dignity. After failing utterly to challenge the Buckeyes downfield for the majority of the afternoon, he connected on 3 completions of 25+ yards in comeback mode, including a gotta-have-it, 32-yard touchdown strike on 3rd-and-10 that briefly revived the Longhorns’ fortunes in the closing minutes, as well as a beauty of a throw from deep in his own territory that split the cornerback and safety in a Cover 2 look. If nothing else, at least in those moments it was possible to see what scouts who anointed him the No. 1 recruit in his class and a future No. 1 overall saw beyond his last name.

For almost any other redshirt sophomore making his first career road start in Ohio Stadium, checking the “flashes potential” box in a competitive loss against the defending champs would count for something. Not much, maybe. But something.

For Arch? Not a chance. For a player as wildly hyped as Manning, who has been hyped for as long as Manning, the idea of chalking up a rocky debut as QB1 to Normal Sophomore Stuff is almost an insult — not to him, but to an audience that was asked to buy him as a fully-formed prospect and literal Heisman frontrunner before he’d even thrown his first touchdown pass against a serious opponent. You (by which I mean “we,” the media hive mind at large) can’t anoint a kid the second coming of his famous uncles and the face of the No. 1 team in the preseason polls and then plead for patience when he comes out looking like just another kid who needs reps the first time he sets foot on a big stage. Real patience means demonstrating restraint before it becomes painfully obvious that it’s in order. (Whoops, too late.)

None of which, to be clear, is directed at Arch himself, who never asked to be anointed anything. If anyone is equipped to survive being monitored by the Bust Police at such a fledgling stage of his career, it’s Manning, who has been in the spotlight to some extent since he was in the 9th grade and has handled it with a minimum of drama or inflated ego. Texas’ larger goals haven’t changed; barring disaster, a competitive road loss against a fellow contender in Week 1 isn’t likely to affect the Longhorns’ Playoff chances very much, if at all. Texas still has the 3rd-lowest odds to win the national championship. And if it serves to keep expectations tethered to reality, a round of initial skepticism could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

But then, that’s assuming that Manning remains on track to be the guy he was supposed to be sooner to later — preferably sooner. Speaking of which, Texas’ upcoming schedule (San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston, all in Austin) ahead of the SEC slate is an opportunity to get right before the next big road test at Florida. Flying under the radar for a few weeks while he settles into the job and restores his confidence is exactly what he needs before the glare falls on him again.
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Last week: 1⬇

6. Taylen Green | Arkansas

Green played 8 series against Alabama A&M, threw 6 touchdown passes, and called it a day. Next up: A marginally stiffer test against Arkansas State that might even see him take a snap in the 4th quarter.
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Last week: 7⬆

7. Diego Pavia | Vanderbilt

Pavia kicked off his bonus year in Nashville by throwing 3 first-half touchdown passes in a 45-3 rout of Charleston Southern — business as usual at Vandy these days. Meanwhile, his 2 older brothers were arrested outside the stadium and charged with public intoxication and resisting arrest — hopefully an isolated event.
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Last week: 8⬆

8. Marcel Reed | Texas A&M

Reed still has a reputation as an “athlete,” as opposed to a guy who’s going to beat a worthy opponent with his arm. But that’s not entirely fair to his production last year as a redshirt freshman, and his stat line in Texas A&M’s 42-24 win over UT-San Antonio was the best yet of his young career: 22-for-34 passing, 289 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 0 sacks. Notably, the guys who were on the receiving end of most of that output, Mario Craver and KC Concepcion, are both portal additions whom the Aggies are counting on to electrify what was a forgettable WR rotation in 2024. So far, so good. Next up: Another round of target practice against Utah State, ahead of their first significant test at Notre Dame.
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Last week: 9⬆

9. Gunner Stockton | Georgia

Stockton aced his Sanford Stadium debut, posting an FBS-best 99.1 QBR rating while accounting for 4 total touchdowns (2 passing, 2 rushing) and giving off unmistakable Stetson Bennett vibes in a 45-7 romp over Marshall. The only thing not to like: His resemblance to a young Kirby Smart is frankly unsettling.
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Last week: 10⬆

10. Jackson Arnold | Auburn

The jury is very much out on his arm, but Auburn is already getting its money’s worth from Arnold’s mobility. He was a borderline workhorse in Week 1, running 16 times for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns in a hard-nosed, 38-24 win win at Baylor; that total included 11 missed tackles forced (per PFF), 9 runs for first downs and 3 gains of 20+ yards, highlighted by his game-clinching TD from 26 yards out on a crucial 4th down late in the game.

In the process, the Tigers got a glimpse of the blueprint they hope will elevate them into the top half of the conference, which — not coincidentally — looks a lot like the blueprint from Oklahoma’s 24-3 upset over Alabama last November, Arnold’s only 100-yard rushing effort during his ill-fated stint as a Sooner. That game was arguably the biggest reason Auburn saw him as a viable portal addition last winter, despite the nightmare of a season that preceded it. If his first time out in Hugh Freeze‘s scheme is any indication, that bet has a chance to pay off.
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Last week: 12⬆

11. Joey Aguilar | Tennessee

Aguilar was a little scattershot in his Tennessee debut, but only a little, throwing 3 touchdown passes in a 45-26 win over Syracuse. Whatever doubts Vols fans had about the downfield arm strength of a G5 transfer were quickly disabused when he uncorked a 75-yard touchdown pass to a streaking Braylon Stanley that traveled 55 yards in the air. Just as reassuring, on the heels of an FBS-worst 14 interceptions in 2024 at Appalachian State: No picks — although Aguilar did lose a fumble.
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Last week: 11⬌

12. Austin Simmons | Ole Miss

One of the few things Lane Kiffin has never been accused of is letting a stat-padding opportunity go to waste. Simmons, a redshirt sophomore making his debut as QB1, took full advantage of the green light against Georgia State, finishing with a very Jaxson Dart-like 341 yards and 3 TDs on 31 attempts; the Rebels kept on scoring all the way to end of a 63-7 massacre. Notably, Simmons was also picked twice in the competitive portion of the proceedings, with both INTs coming on consecutive possessions in the first half — a footnote against Georgia State, but much costlier if the giveaways continue in SEC play, beginning this weekend at Kentucky.
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Last week: 13⬆

13. Ty Simpson | Alabama

The best thing you can about Simpson’s dismal afternoon at Florida State is that it wasn’t all his fault. The running game was nonexistent. Ryan Williams, his most gifted wideout, had more drops (3) than first downs (2) before exiting with a concussion. Bama’s entrenched, blue-chip left tackle, Kadyn Proctor, was a wreck in arguably the worst game of his career. The defense gave up points on 4 of FSU’s first 5 full possessions, forcing the offense to shift into comeback mode for essentially the entire second half. The indelible image of the afternoon was of Simpson, under duress, scrambling wildly out of one would-be disaster and frequently into another.

If you were looking for evidence of a 5-star talent capable of singlehandedly transcending the dysfunction around him in his first career start, forget it. If you lower the bar a little, you can see the outline of a guy who, if nothing else, is capable of functioning in rhythm from a clean pocket:

First of all, when your quarterback is dropping back 51 times in a conventional, non-Air Raid offense, something has already gone very wrong. In Simpson’s case, about two-thirds of those attempts came after halftime, after any threat of a ground game had receded and FSU pass rushers were able to pin their ears back. The way forward begins with doing whatever is necessary to ensure as few snaps fall into the right-hand column as possible.
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Last week: 6⬇

14. Beau Pribula | Missouri

Again, nobody’s moving the needle here against Central Arkansas. Competition notwithstanding, though, Pribula’s Mizzou debut could hardly have gone any better: 23-for-28 passing, 9-for-10 on attempts of 10+ air yards, a couple of long TD bombs, 2 more TDs as a runner, and an impressive sizzle reel to back it up. The Tigers scored on every possession with the Penn State transfer behind center, including 2 — 2! — 99-yard touchdown drives en route to a 61-6 romp. What little intrigue there was about his status as QB1 in the preseason was resolved, both by Pribula’s performance and by the other guy in the competition, Sam Horn, suffering a leg injury on his only snap of the game that will sideline him indefinitely.

That’s a tough break for Horn. A pitcher who was drafted by the L.A. Dodgers in the 17th round of July’s MLB Draft, he already missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. A second major injury in as many years could put his football future in doubt — especially after Eli Drinkwitz declared Pribula’s new understudy, 4-star freshman Matt Zollers, “the future for us at the quarterback position.”
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Last week: 14⬌

15. Blake Shapen | Mississippi State

Given the grim outlook in Starkville, it’s tempting to sim to the end of the Shapen era and directly to the competition between his touted freshman backups, FSU transfer Luke Kromenhoek and Kamario Taylor. Not so fast my friend! Shapen, coming off a season-ending shoulder injury in 2024, shook off the rust in the opener, looking comfortable and accurate in a 34-17 win at Southern Miss. His adjusted completion percentage (90.3%, counting drops as on-target attempts) led the conference, per PFF. The competition gets steeper in Week 2 against No. 12 Arizona State, but as long as the Bulldogs have something to play for, there’s no indication he’s due to begin looking over shoulder anytime soon.
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Last week: 15⬌

16. Zach Calzada | Kentucky

All of Kentucky’s offseason moves implied an offense hellbent on running the dang ball. The opener, 24-16 slugfest against Toledo, confirmed it: Transfer RBs Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan ground out 207 yards on 32 carries, while Calzada, a 7th-year journeyman on his 4th school, struggled to complete passes beyond the line of scrimmage. Calzada was a dismal 1-for-11 on attempts of 10+ air yards — the lone completion going for a gain of 11 — while 72 of the Wildcats’ 85 receiving yards (84.7%) came after the catch.
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Last week: 16⬌

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.